Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
How low?
In theory every share can hit 0.
I'm not predicting this for pfc but no one on here knows what the sp will be in a week or a year.
The question is do you feel that the company is well run and is in a growth business area?
Or is it tredding water making the best of a bad situation?
Personally I think the company is run well, debt is low and it continues to make a profit. But the industry is suffering and so this company will be low until production of oil needs to increase.
It is diversified but I think it still heavily relies on oil production which is all in reverse gear at the moment
Firstly I have to say well done to pocker for getting in at 13p. (very nice timing).
Would I take 33p today? Hell yes personally speaking it would almost double my investment and pull my portfolio out of the red, so for me it would be a no brainer.
Id actually take 21p today but that is my own investment decision not a company valuation.
I doubt this will get much higher before the 15p offer. The higher it goes the more money any 15p buyers can make.
My guess would be that the 15p offer will be made to current holders and then if there is any left over it will be offered to the open market.
So holding gives you an advantage to buy first.
If the capital clears some debt then it puts the company in a stronger position as debt has a fixed interest were as share capital only needs to be paid a dividend if that is affordable.
Long term this may grow again but the time frame and by how much is anyone's guess.
I'm thinking I should sell my 16p holdings and keep those I paid a higher price for as that will release capital to take up the 15p share offer.
I'm just gutted I missed out on the 24p yesterday so taking me a while to start thinking it through correctly
Well 25% is not terrible and not completely unrecoverable.
I try to keep to just under 20% as my maximum but got caught out in saga trying to recover losses.
My bt holding is about 17% of my portfolio and whilst I don't expect a dramatic recovery I would hope that 130p is doable with a few dividends.
I don't see BT folding so even another 50% haircut would not be a disaster and that would be my worst case scenario for BT
No.
If the sp is 17p then you could instantly sell your new shares for 2p profit.
If the sp was 13p then you would lose 2p per share.
However there maybe terms attached to the new offer which could be something like you have to hold the new shares for X period of time.
It would not be an easy sell, but 12 months ago the plan was for the cruise ships to pay for themselves. Sadly events have meant that covid has hit at just the wrong time before the ships could even contribute to the bottom line.
It happens with lots of companies that a decision to invest is over taken by events.
If saga had only committed to one ship when covid hit I don't think they would have commissioned the second.
But we are were we are and debt is not being covered at the moment
Yes but to maintain that holding you have had to pay more for it.
This offer is basically a statement that the company feels its valuation was too low on Friday.
It suggests that the company needs a short term cash injection at 15p a share but this cash will come back to share holders with long term capital returns of up to 28p.
Dilution of shares does not really matter if the value of 15p is correct and long term 28p as these are both above the 13p trading on Friday.
But its all a judgement call, you can sell now and get 17p.
You can hold and not invest and hope the share rises.
You can hold and invest and hope the share rises, but there is always the possibility that the capital is not enough or the need for capital lasts for a longer period than expected by the board.
If that happens then whether you invest more or not you could end up worse off.
Its not a freebie and not a great give away its a statement on how the board values the company, but as all valuations are below 33p it is suspicious why that offer has not been made alongside this offer.
Hi tomc1,
Whilst this share price may fall back this statement is not true...
The way things are going it will have to be lowered, can't have a rights issue above the current price. Whats stopping this going back to 13p...
I've been involved in rights issues before, specifically bbox.
The rights issue was always at a discount to the current sp.
Well done on selling on the spike. I missed out by about 5 minutes.
It makes you wonder about the 33p offer as why not put it to share holders.
However I doubt there will be a hostile take over as the offer is no longer there.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/saga-soars-on-funding-deal-as-former-owner-returns
Well done poker. I am in at 16 & 20 so called the bottom way wrong.
Its all going to be about the results, I've been caught out in the past on results buying into a rise only to see a correction on results day. So hoping for a reversal in fortunes buying into a falling sp.
Interestingly the number of short positions has remained unchanged. So not shorters driving down the price.
I think it will stay low until September until it is clear whether covenants will be breached
I doubt it would jump to 200 today. But in a sea of red this share is my shining light today.
To be honest I'm fairly content with most of my investments at the moment and will now probably sit and wait it out till next year.
I've more money to invest but I'll probably either focus the rest on dividend paying stocks or lump it all into a market fund.
Speaking personally 30p a share would be amazing but I can't see many long term holders whooping for joy at that price.
My point is that it is rare to get an offer for a company going through tough times. A good trading update will reassure the algos that this is not going bust any time soon and a slow rise to 20p will follow. But not expecting anything close to 6 months ago for a while yet and that was a low price then.