Member Info for Marcus_

I think you will get that 40% back and when dividends restart BT will start to give you some profit. If my math is right 40% is about £2.

I don't think it will be overnight. But definitely a long term target in the next 5 years.

I was under by 30% across the board about 2 weeks ago. At the moment I'm less than 1% under. So turn arounds can happen pretty quickly.
Well done on 888, I'm hoping for something similar with Saga. Not as good a business at the moment as 888 but hopefully if they can reduce debt could double in a few years.

As for BT, I'm probably going to let it ride as my purchase price is about 110 which when dividends restart should be a cracking yeild.

@beingthebanker - I have to agree there is a lot of positivity across the markets at the moment (with good cause). But when others get greedy it's time to review your holdings. I'm no expert but I have looked back to the referendum in 2016 to see what the impact of that was on the shares I now own.

BT if I recall did dip following that news but bounced back fairly quickly, so I'm not sure Brexit will be as big a factor in this share as it will be in some others. Conversely, Lloyds dipped following the referendum and never recovered, so I've taken this uplift to sell those shares. Take some profit and hold cash for any future Brexit related dips.

The sad thing about Brexit is that you are betting not on the performance of the company but the ability of Politicians to come to an agreement. So you can't be totally shielded from a bad Brexit without the possibility of missing out on any rise from a good one.

I'm hoping to hold about 1/3rd of my assets in cash, that way if there is a bad result and shares like BT dip I can top up here in the expectation that it will follow a similar path and rebound quickly when markets realize that not all UK shares will be impacted to the same extent.

Similarly if there is a good deal then you can get a rise just not as big a rise from the shares you hold.

I'm gutted I did not buy back into 888 when it dropped to less than £1 on the COVID news, so if something like that drops on BREXIT, I'll be in like a shot as they are a cash business with very little debt.

It may also fairly quiet as the chat functionality seems to be down across the site every day at the moment.
2 more days like today and I'll be happy as I will have reached a point were I can reduce my hold to a more reasonable balance within my overall portfolio.

But still a long way to go for LTH's who lost out during the drop from pre-Covid

No one needs to work out their average price in old or new. Most trading platforms tell you how much your holding is worth.

So all you need to know is how much you invested and work out the difference between them. I had a nice surprise today to find out I was only 10% down on my investment not 20%.

So think my break even is roughly about 270.
When we hit that I will probably sell half my holding as I never intended to have so much in one share (I got greedy).

Lesson learned though averaging down is not a clever strategy, better to find an alternative investment.

The last 2 days have dug me out of a hole across my investments so now only sitting on a small loss rather than 30% across the board.

I think you could invest at these levels and make some decent money, but I would be shocked at anything north of 300p before the interim results next year.

I think the market feels that the risk of default has deminished, but to hit anything like 600p this share in my opinion would need to start paying dividends, which will require some very positive cash flow and profits. Which I think could be at least 2 financial years away.

You can imagine some of the bigger private investors will have lost money yesterday being unable to access their accounts and make trades.

Fund holders will be fine but share dealers will have been pulling their hair out as some shares hit key targets to buy or sell.

Bottom drawed this for the time being.

With no offers on the horizon this is simply down to what the next set of results reveal about the viability of the business.

What's happened today?

Fair enough if you think there is value in them. Ive averaged down myself before but it was looking for a palatable exit point as I had lost belief in the share itself, which makes less sense.

I'm still working out investing after 5 years, how to place a value on a company and knowing the difference between oversold/undervalued and a fundamental drop in share value.

I get the psychology for averaging down as no one likes a loss. But logically it makes no sense unless you believe the stock is under valued.

Otherwise you may as well invest any additional capital in another share.

Averaging down always feels like throwing good money after bad.

May reconsider my planned share purchase in 2 weeks given the lockdown news I can see this dropping again.

Hi Jason, shares are trick little blighters. Always hard to tell which way something will go.

Everyone who buys does so as they feel the upside is more likely than the downside.

I was on a great run during march and April was nearly in the black then boom down 33% across all my holdings. Bad pick after bad pick.

LGEN, LLOYDS, SHELL, PFC..... SAGA (truly shocking)

But you have to either pack up and buy funds leaving it to the professionals or hold you nerve and wait.

I'll be buying some gsk in 2 weeks (need new funds to become available).

I maybe insane but I think most UK stocks are getting the double whammy of brexit and covid. So really your not betting on gsk your betting on the brexit deal not being a total **** up.

Gsk is a good income stock but a bad brexit outcome will hit the stock as who wants to pay 10% more for health products.

But all that said, even with another 10% fall if you can take 6% dividends then in 2 years your back in profit without the share value moving an inch.

So just ask how long can you afford to hold for?

It is always difficult to be patient with shares as we all want that positive outcome. But in the current interest rate environment it is difficult to find better investment opportunities.

I think BT has a good future both in terms of income and capital growth. The telecoms industry is not likely to disappear overnight so happy to hold this for a 5 year time line.

I have to agree, share investments can be a bit like educated gambling.
You get to see the same information as everyone else but it is still difficult to predict the future, so only invest that which you can afford to lose or leave invested for many years.

Brexit and covid are going to keep this down until they are resolved.

I've more confidence in covid having a favourable out than I do brexit.

The debate over dilution is semantics.

The only question that is important is capital erosion. How much are your current shares worth compared to when you made your purchases.

So if you bought £6000 worth of shares and you now have £3000 your investment has halved.

On a share paying no dividend income, dilution is not that relevant as the dividend per share is zero for everyone.

The calculation is very simple 33p x 15, I'll let you practice with your calculator to work out the answer.

I would have jumped on the 33p as for me it would have been a fast buck, but I get that for others 33p would have been a huge hair cut so you can only hope that the £150m see's us through to clear waters and a steady sail to beyond 33p.

But I think that will take some years to reach, but I'm not an arse about it.

Hopefully you will make a killing if you got in between 120 -140.

I could not average down further, already to much invested here as a % of my portfolio. But may actually dare to look at my shares next week if this continues.

OMG a blue day across the board for me today.

I've not dared look at my portfolio recently given I've been red across the board for weeks, just incase panic set in and I sold everything .

Hi Fat,

I see you say net debt is about £25 billion, I assume you mean current liabilities. I thought it was worth exploring this as you are absolutely right that even in 2015 current liabilities were only a meager £13 billion.

So that is a doubling of debt in 5 years.

However, in that time revenues have also grown, from £23billion to £33 billion a 43% increase. So debt as a proportion of revenue has not grown as much as rapidly.

in 2015 current liabilities were 56% of revenues
In 2019 current liabilities are 77% of revenues

This is not great but when I compare to Astra Zenica I find that they have a similar debt to revenue ratio 18/24 = 74%.
The difference is that GSK profits have been starting to grow again in the last few years and both remain fairly steady in terms of cash on hand.

I would like to see GSK start to reduce debt, but probably unlikely in the current climate but if they can hold steady at the level and not add too much more debt there is no reason to worry just yet. If that increased debt leads to longer term growth in profits then that is good debt. If it just pays dividends then that would be a poor outcome.

Rocket I love your rampant attitude and how I wish it was true. But I'm thinking maybe this time next year we will see +£3.00 so long as we have a good wind in our sails.