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Well it's been a few great weeks so far and I do find that the rate that I post on this chat is inversely proportional to how well my stock picks are doing.
BT is going great guns at the moment but I know I can't day trade for toffee, so it's just a matter of sitting and waiting for the dividends to restart as unless there is a huge shift in the telecoms market, I can't see me ever selling these BT shares unless they hit something stupid like £5 in 2 years.
Well it has been an interesting few months since the jump in short positions declared in September. For once the share price has slowly been walked up since that point.
Unusual for shorters to get this so wrong, but happy to be back in the black.
To me this is a safe space against any Brexit impacts on the £v$ so can see why the share is increasing as a way of hedging against that risk along with all other oil shares.
Lifestyle is key.
How many times do people travel 1600 miles a day?
On average most people probably travel maybe 30 miles a day, (when I say average that is average not a personal experience).
I'm sure some people will travel 100's of miles each and every day but they will be few and far between compared to most o the population. But people do not buy cars for the day to day, they think about what if I need to go see family 100's of miles away that 1 time each year.
But again for most people anything with a range of 200-400 miles will cover off any one time trips. What I am not certain about is the longevity of batteries. They still require raw materials to make and that still means digging stuff up. But for my lifetime I will be ok. But whether battery operated cars will last the next 100 years is another question.
As has been said it is only a ban on the sale of new cars so the whole infrastructure does not need to be in place by 2030.
Indeed if you look at the battery development that has taken place in the last 10 years, then there is no reason why it cannot go further in the next 10 years.
Tesla has said that its new Roadster, planned for the 2021 model year, will be able to run for as much as 620 miles on a single charge. It is not inconceivable that that technology will get refined made smaller and cheap in mass production environments in the next 10 years.
How many people drive 600 miles a day? Not many.
Most just go from home to work and back again. So a range of 300 miles would be more than enough for most users.
So there question is how much infrastructure will be required? The main issue is going to be for houses that have no off road parking. But then again those cars will need to be parked when at work either at a work site or a paid car park.
So it maybe a case for those who cannot charge at home, that it will be incorporated into parking fees in multi-stories. Sure some will add it as a surcharge but as car parks start to compete it will drive those prices down.
But there will still be petrol used in other parts of the world, so for PFC the 2030 deadline is not a big deal. But it is a signal that a diverse portfolio of clients will be needed for long-term growth.
I think energy wise digging stuff up and burning it was always going to have a finite shelf life.
However, I expect that oil production will continue at much lower levels for many decades as plastics are very difficult to substitute.
But for PFC a switch to a more general engineering and infrastructure role will provide a future long beyond any peaks of troughs in oil.
I get what you are driving at that oil will still have a demand, but you have picked a very old article and the dates around power generation are rather old.
This gives a more recent update but is still 2 years old
https://www.eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=CA
The California renewable portfolio standard (RPS), implemented in 2002 and revised several times since then, requires that 33% of retail sales of electricity in California come from eligible renewable resources by 2020, 60% by 2030, and 100% by 2045.80
In 2018, an estimated 34% of the state's electricity retail sales were generated from renewables.
Good luck Nige and Aus,
I think you will see your averages sooner or later.
For once I'm fairly smug on a share at 107p, but that was purely a case of luck rather than judgement. But it makes a nice change that for the first time in 4 years I can relax on a share.
It's good to have that visability that the business is pushing back on the restrictions to government. Whilst it is a government decision it builds confidence as an investor to know the company are fighting for a reasonable approach by government.
When it was radio silence that is where doubt and rumors' start to swirl, plus a general dissatisfaction with any perceived lack of effort.
As for the vaccine programme, for once this moves in SAGA's favour as the SAGA customer base for cruises will be the top priority to get the vaccinations .
Also whilst you want maximum coverage on vaccinations, even when 10% have been vaccinated that will start to provide some relief as it will act as a fire break preventing further spread and reducing the impact on the NHS with a reduction in the number of serious cases or deaths.
The rest of the population (under 55's) who will take longer to get vaccinated are far less likely to impact the medical services or add to the horrendous death toll.
Seems like a pause for breath by most shares at the moment.
It's at times like this when it slides back a few percentages that I start to get itchy feet looking for better prospects elsewhere.
But probably should learn that patience is the key and given a few months it will start to move once again.
Ha ha ha.
In such a mythical situation the shorters would be hit with huge losses as they buy back at higher prices.
In the real world just like shorters piled in before the SFO announced any investigation, they will slink away before the SFO closes any investigation.
They have magic crystal balls telling them when big announcements like that are due.
Shorts decreased marginally on the 17th November.
But not sure the shorts know any more than what is already out there.
What I am never clear with is whether the short position is the percentage of shares sold or the percentage of shares they could sell?
Either way with 8% shorts there can not be many other PFC shares out there to be loaned. Puts them in a sticky position if the markets bounce again.
I have to agree with Kev, this stock jumped massively last week. Sayings like the trend be your friend are nice but don't tend to be that useful for huge swings in the SP.
This could rally again, but currently it sits at a share price that is about were it was in August 2020.
As it starts to wander above 300p you will find that some people who tried to catch a falling knife between March & July will want to cash in given the ride they have had over the last few months.
So there will be some resistance at these levels, I don't expect a quick movement up unless the company can report something significant.
The SP is all over the shop this morning. Which makes sense as some people will be cashing in their 12p shares to lock in some profit.
Whilst others will be seeing the potential for another doubling of the SP over the next 12-24 months. No one buys or sells on what today's trading tells them its about what the future earnings maybe.
is 200p possible? Yes but so is 350p - 400p which is still only 26p in old money.
I was buying these at £1 a few years back and with the consolidation that would be the same as £15 a share. So there will be plenty of volatility as the market tries to do some price discovery.
@ Ian.B: I think you are missing a rather large gap in your knowledge.
This is not double the SP before Covid. In October there was a 15 - 1 share consolidation, alongside a capital raising.
I'm not going to do the whole dilution exercise, but if we say the current SP is 350p / 15 = 23p.
23p is still a huge drop in the value of this company as pre covid I think we were at 45p.
Was just about to say the same thing myself
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54993652
Today was a key day for me as this is my 4th year investing in shares and its the first day my capital investment has beaten what I would have got sticking it in the bank at 1% interest.
When to buy and when to sell is always tricky and I have missed opportunities in the past, but as I was too heavily invested in this share it makes sense for me to sell half at this level with a small profit and then spread my investments to a wider range of stocks (holding some cash for a bad Brexit).
The rest of my Saga stock I can now forget about for a few years and see if Sir Rog pulls it off without panicking that I'm over exposed.
Hi Leem,
To me it's all about sentiment and cashflow.
The market was looking at the cash flowing out of the business and with each passing month was betting that SAGA would run out of cash before it could get its cruises back up and running.
When Sir Rog came in that provided a cash boost to the business but the fundamental problem was that the market was still unsure whether SAGA's new cash would last long enough or whether there would be a need for another capital investment from shareholders or worse.
The vaccine gives the market a potential end date for when that cash drain will stop and the sentiment is that total collapse or another cash call on shareholders is a reduced risk and now it is simply a matter of valuing the business on the basis of historic revenues and the potential future revenues.
No one has foresight and all knowledge but the effectiveness of the vaccine, reduces the risk of the worst case scenario for SAGA which leaves just how the business will manage in the market.