Member Info for Marcus_

Eddie. Sorry to hear you are under water on this . I can only recommend patience as these things tend to turn. If you can its worth diversifying, I'd go for a non-oil , non-commodity stock.

What a surprise to see this down at 870p.

It's been on the watch list for a while so could not resist, (I ain't getting a 5% return at the bank any time soon).

Seems like a pause for breath by most shares at the moment.
It's at times like this when it slides back a few percentages that I start to get itchy feet looking for better prospects elsewhere.

But probably should learn that patience is the key and given a few months it will start to move once again.

Ha ha ha.

In such a mythical situation the shorters would be hit with huge losses as they buy back at higher prices.

In the real world just like shorters piled in before the SFO announced any investigation, they will slink away before the SFO closes any investigation.

They have magic crystal balls telling them when big announcements like that are due.

Shorts decreased marginally on the 17th November.
But not sure the shorts know any more than what is already out there.

What I am never clear with is whether the short position is the percentage of shares sold or the percentage of shares they could sell?

Either way with 8% shorts there can not be many other PFC shares out there to be loaned. Puts them in a sticky position if the markets bounce again.

I have to agree with Kev, this stock jumped massively last week. Sayings like the trend be your friend are nice but don't tend to be that useful for huge swings in the SP.

This could rally again, but currently it sits at a share price that is about were it was in August 2020.
As it starts to wander above 300p you will find that some people who tried to catch a falling knife between March & July will want to cash in given the ride they have had over the last few months.

So there will be some resistance at these levels, I don't expect a quick movement up unless the company can report something significant.

The SP is all over the shop this morning. Which makes sense as some people will be cashing in their 12p shares to lock in some profit.

Whilst others will be seeing the potential for another doubling of the SP over the next 12-24 months. No one buys or sells on what today's trading tells them its about what the future earnings maybe.

is 200p possible? Yes but so is 350p - 400p which is still only 26p in old money.

I was buying these at £1 a few years back and with the consolidation that would be the same as £15 a share. So there will be plenty of volatility as the market tries to do some price discovery.

@ Ian.B: I think you are missing a rather large gap in your knowledge.

This is not double the SP before Covid. In October there was a 15 - 1 share consolidation, alongside a capital raising.
I'm not going to do the whole dilution exercise, but if we say the current SP is 350p / 15 = 23p.

23p is still a huge drop in the value of this company as pre covid I think we were at 45p.

Was just about to say the same thing myself

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54993652

Today was a key day for me as this is my 4th year investing in shares and its the first day my capital investment has beaten what I would have got sticking it in the bank at 1% interest.

When to buy and when to sell is always tricky and I have missed opportunities in the past, but as I was too heavily invested in this share it makes sense for me to sell half at this level with a small profit and then spread my investments to a wider range of stocks (holding some cash for a bad Brexit).

The rest of my Saga stock I can now forget about for a few years and see if Sir Rog pulls it off without panicking that I'm over exposed.

Hi Leem,

To me it's all about sentiment and cashflow.
The market was looking at the cash flowing out of the business and with each passing month was betting that SAGA would run out of cash before it could get its cruises back up and running.

When Sir Rog came in that provided a cash boost to the business but the fundamental problem was that the market was still unsure whether SAGA's new cash would last long enough or whether there would be a need for another capital investment from shareholders or worse.

The vaccine gives the market a potential end date for when that cash drain will stop and the sentiment is that total collapse or another cash call on shareholders is a reduced risk and now it is simply a matter of valuing the business on the basis of historic revenues and the potential future revenues.

No one has foresight and all knowledge but the effectiveness of the vaccine, reduces the risk of the worst case scenario for SAGA which leaves just how the business will manage in the market.

270 will do for me.

I've cut my holding in half as I was overleveraged here.

Happy to leave the other half to ride this wave.

I'm very annoyed with the current SP, if this carries on I will have to scrap all my calculations from how much I have lost on SAGA into how much I am making.

#beyondexpectations

Speaking personally I would not vote for a take over at less than £2 per share which is probably about +£20 billion for the whole company.

I am currently up on my BT shares by about 17% and I see the current price as undervalued. When I add back in the prospect of dividends then I would want at least a few years worth of Dividends built on top of the SP to make me think about any take over offer.

£15 billion might be passed in a few weeks time by a steady growth in the SP. You can't make a hostile bid at the level that is pretty much the same as the current SP.

I think the next big move in either direction will be in the next week or 2 when Brexit is finalised. (one way or the other).

Saga is probably more insulated than some but still expect that what ever the announcement this will swing with the market.

Once Brexit settles that hopefully will be one of the last external shocks to the SP and there will be more clarity on which way this will move.

Hi nige,

I'm more hopeful on the brexit front too, but the express does have an agenda so I'd be cautious about it being the only source.

But bbc newsnight was also hinting at a positive outcome too about a day ago, so here's hoping

Hard up is a retrace to £1 likely?
Sure it is, if the market valued the company at £1 a few weeks ago then negative sentiment can shift this again.

The question is whether you feel the odds of the sp being less than £1.25 in 2-3 years is greater or less than it being £2 (plus dividends) in 2-3 years.

I'd be shocked if the trend is below £1 in that time frame, but in between with brexit etc it's entirely possible that it will drop and if it does I have cash waiting to buy.

Although I may invest in Gsk before then if it hits the low £13 so depends what you feel is fair value.

I think with amazon moving into the pharmacy business the market expectation is probably that they will drive down prices, therefore less revenue for producers long term.

The difference between the UK and USA markets is the tech sector.

In the UK our tech sector is mainly UK focused so catering to a very small market that since brexit has deminishing purchasing power as the pound falls.

In the USA the tech sector has a larger market to expand into and uses that advantage to build world wide brands.

So many of the gains in the US markets are on the backs of a few very large companies. The rest of the US market will have similar performance to the UK.
We are missing that big growth sector.

@Jed I appreciate your situation and that £5 does look a long way away. I don't think its impossible but I would think a few years down the track.

However, for new entrants the question is whether £2 is a good price. I think in a balanced portfolio (mine is not yet, but working on it) then £2 offers a good balance of risk v reward.

£3 is not too unrealistic and would add 50% to someone buying at these levels, so I can see a case to buy.