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I agree, day to day (hour to hour) fluctuations are impossible to stay ahead of unless you are trading large sums and using a computer to execute trades.
The PM has set the date for updates on travel as the 22nd of Feb. So take your position will it be positive and therefore worth buying at this level or will it be more of the same and another pull back?
I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy to hold and see where the market goes but I don't think infection rates will rise further.
I think when people see a vacinne is being rolled out they assume 100% protection hence the SP rises.
It then falls back as reality hits and people see that it is not a shield but will reduce risk.
Once that lower risk is scaled up and serious hospital infections fall people will again have more confidence to buy.
I saw an opportunity late on Friday and I'm hopeful that a few weeks of falling infection will also lead to a slow but steady rise in the SP.
280-290 whilst lock down is in place.
290-310 when lock down is lifted.
Then when cruises are announced as being able to resume that will be the big lift we need, but that needs multinational approval so not entirely in the Uks hands
Nothing harder than timing the market.
I'm about evens at this SP as I was lucky and sold before the big drop in march and bought back at relatively low prices.
I had my finger on the button to buy some more but decided to wait. It could fall further so no rush to buy and if it goes up then I will just make money on my current holdings.
230-240p and I will give it another look. My only hesitation is that at some point the vacinne will impact the infection and death rates. Which will boost markets across the board so fomo is my only reason to buy today
Hi orient.
Reading between the lines it seems you are looking to outlay roughly 250k-300k on saga stock.
Looking for a tripling of the current SP in 4 years to come out at £1m+
These are far bigger numbers than I invest but really the question is do I think the SP will be £10 in 4 years?
I would not be that optimistic. In old money it would be equivalent to 66p prior to consolidation.
If it hit that in 4 years I would be toasting your health.
My expectations are a rocky 2021 with some ups and downs with us hopefully hitting £4 come the end of the year.
After that it will depend on what debt we have accrued as to future share growth.
If your SIPp is due in 4 years my worry for you is that this is a big gamble to take so close to retirement.
I'm aiming to be in boring bonds with 10-5 years pre retirement.
But I wish you well
There seems to be some confusion about vaccinations and how viruses work.
First of all both viruses and vaccinations are not 100% effective. They are biological agents and therefore like other biological creatures subject to imperfections.
So saying I am vacinnated why should I care if anyone else is mia understands this point.
Think of it as a room full of people throwing tennis balls at each other whilst wearing velcro. The older you get the more the velcro sticks.
Now if you are vacinnated most of the velcro is removed. You will still get hit by tennis balls as they fly around but the odds of them sticking to you are lower.
Clearly if there are less people with the vaccination then the odds are that even though you are vacinnated you will still be hit alot and the closer you are the harder they hit (higher viral load).
Vacinnes work best when most people have them as there are fewer balls flying about and fewer sticking.
From a saga point of view the older passangers are the concern as they are more likely to get it and have symptoms that are serious.
Most of the crew will be younger and so less likely to be impacted. Also as employees they can be fired if they don't stick to h&s protocols (whereas you can chuck passangers overboard if they are mixing inappropriately).
In time I am sure when the vacinne is available to all age groups saga can also insist that their crew get the jab or work in an environment with less vulnerable people..
The question for the business is at what point the risk it acceptable to start sailing and having passangers somewhat protected rather than passangers and crew seems a sensible business decision
I'd never go all in on a share.
There are too many variables and too many opportunities out there to focus on just one.
You never know what will be your big earners, I would never have thought I'd get a 25% capital growth on a share like shell in a matter of months.
Similarly with a share like bt.
On the other hand I've taken stinking losses on pfc but having that balance allows me to relax a little and sell when the time is right.
I was tempted to cut my losses the other day but stupidity kicked in and I decided to hold.
I think this will rebound but it's going to take a while to shake off the stink around this.
Disappointing but that is the gamble when buying shares in a company under investigation.
Not really concerned with whether this will be 40 or 45p before the new year. Now the deal is done it removes huge uncertainty and hopefully after many years of chaos we can start to enter a period of stability to allow the company to grow.
I held off buying until today, not because of Lloyds but because you can't rely upon politicians for your share picks.
With Brexit done this will become what it was an old reliable dividend generating stock, so yes I've missed out on the rise from 33p to 39p, but you don't buy for tomorrow you buy for 5 to 10 years time.
So don't get caught up in the big jump today, look for the growth potential and income in the next few years.
Hi Warthog,
I've read the same article and it does say that no charges have been brought against the company or any employee.
It would be a challenge to speculate on what it would do to the SP if the SFO went away.
We all assume it would increase the SP but by how much is a guessing game as you have to know how much business has been lost or deterred due to the investigation. This is a huge unknown and since SFO we have also had falls in the Price of Oil and COIVD, so what percentage drop in inbound work is due to SFO is pure guess work.
Indeed the SFO could linger for many years (and has) with work on hand going up and down.
I thought it was a fair reflection and seems that the market had already priced in most of the drop in revenue. SFO can't create demand for their services they can only attempt to secure work from that market.
At the moment it is purely about survival and hoping that when you come out the other side there are new contracts to be won.
PFC are doing their part as a well run business to shrink to match demand, but basically we need that demand to grow by either a growth in oil service demand or by diversifying further into other services and other energy markets.
From my view PFC is working as hard as it can, it does not feel like management are just sitting on their hands.
Hi Asperger,
I'm hedged more towards no deal.
I've been selling into the recent rises but it is a gamble as no one truely knows.
I would never have thought that a few fish would be the issue but the need for the UK to follow EU rules is a huge hurdle for any independence minded MP's to swallow.
I'm inclined to think no deal and then once we are on WTO terms a slow lowering of tariffs over the coming years, but it is purely speculation.
Sub 20p?
I don't think it went that low even during the wild days of the pandemic and that was when the Dividend had been cancelled.
This as 60-70p pre pandemic and is now trading in half that range, I'm expecting a dip on no deal but we have to be realistic about the impacts.
Most UK GDP is generated inside the UK's own internal market 70-75%.
Exports make up 25-30% of UK GDP, with trade to the EU making up about 45% of that 30%.
So trade with the EU is about 13% of GDP, we are not looking at a loss of that trade but a tariff on that trade which will suppress some not all demand.
I can see that panic will hit the Lloyds SP but the underlying value of the business is not going to be impacted another 50%, so at anything below 30p I would read that as an over reaction by the market and an opportunity to buy.
Sub 20p just seems like crazy prices.
Ha...
I'm so completely happy with my shares here, I had not bothered to check the chat boards so was totally unaware that an offer was on the table.
130p. Ha
Nice try, why would I take that when the potential here is so much greater, I'm up over 100% on this stock it is literally my best pick of the summer.