Member Info for Marcus_

Sorry, but who says you can't get NHS treatment?

I've managed to get an x-ray within 2 weeks on a knee issue. Not life threatening, but could develop to be chronic if not addressed.

People love to put opinion down as fact, when it is no where near reality.

Just because the SAGA SP is not pushing 1500p, that's no excuse to then start throwing silly comments about.
Its a global pandemic and with no restrictions you would have seen true chaos, forget not being able to get NHS appointments. That would have been the least of our worries.

I think people also forget that death is the end of wedge. The number of people with long COVID is going to impact NHS resources going forwards and whilst fitness is a factor it is not the be all and end all. As even at this stage there is little insight into whether some people are genetically more vulnerable to COVID.

Is investment advice permitted?

Sure some would say they are buying or selling for whatever reason.

But surely your not allowed to advertise other shares and investments on any old LSE chat thread?

So from the RNS, last weeks rise was against some more institutional selling.

So an even better performance given that information.

Wanna hear a joke?

Hargreaves lansdown has just confirmed today that I was accepted for the saga open share offer.

That's good news since I've been trading them.

RoxburyHouse,

I'm not sure why he would take it private today for a higher price than he could have paid pre consolidation, that does not seem like a great business plan.

Given his age does he really want to own the whole thing? I genuinely think he had an emotional tie and saw an opportunity to save a company that is part of his families legacy.

Sure he could make a few more quid on the side by seeing it through the bad times. But I doubt he wants overall control.

Beachbum1978,

The sp of 33p does not really matter unless you bought before the consolidation and bought below 33p

What matters is what was your capital outlay?
What capital would you have got back at 33p?
What capital would you get back today or when ever you sell?

If you are asking what was the company valued at when the 33p offer was made and what would be it's equivalent value post consolidation, that has been answered below.

neilhumphreys5ya

I'm assuming that is sarcasm

RoxburyHouse,

I would not let the multiplying by 15 annoy you.
Its 2 different calculations.

Your calculation is based on the overall value of the company and what would be it's equivalent value at the new share price.

My calculation is far simpler. It's based on the value of my investment at the time.

So if you have say £10000 invested at say 15p but then there is an offer at 33p.

If that offer is accepted then your capital will more than double.

As the offer was rejected and a new offer accepted, it is fair as an individual to measure the the second offer based on its value to you, not to the market value of the overall company.

Clearly for those in at say 45p or £1+. The 33p offer may have been less attractive as it would be a capital loss.

For those in below 33p, the question for them is when will the second offer grow that investment beyond the 33p offer.

Everyone makes investment decisions using their own opinion of how tney value that investment.

For me my Saga investment it viewed through the lens of that capital return.

Yes I took the share offer but I value that investment separately to the initial capital. For me Each share purchase is successful or fails based on its own value. Not whether it averages down, previous purchases.

That is just the way I work.

Wow lots to wade through today.

Some very heavy repeat posters too (always treat them with caution).

The cost of separation is shocking, I'm sure a few divorce lawyers could hammer out a better deal than 2 billion.

But can't see them backing out, as they have nailed their colours to the mast. It would require a large share holder intervention to sack the CEO and put a stop to it and the large shareholders in companies this size tend to be anaemic at best.

All that being said, is this going bust? No.
So fairly happy to buy at this price with a 5-10 year timeline.

If you bought at £16 then I feel bad for you, I've been there with other companies and it is not a nice feeling to see your capital eroded.

But unless you need the capital soon then time should hopefully see you recover some of that value.

Just out of interest Banburyboy,

Did we ever see the terms of that 33p offer?
I thought it was rejected without wider shareholders being able to see the terms.

I'm using that as the benchmark as to how well the company performs, so far so good but still a long way off £4.95.

When will I learn, got greedy seeing that £3 and held off on the sale.

I have a long term hold here but I also like to trade on the drops. Managed to get a bargain on the drop following the trading update but was greedy and did not sell this morning.

Damn shame.

You could always sell some if round numbers are essential to you.

Looks like the market is a little keen for saga today.

A comfortable position to holding shares as we get closer and closer to normality.

Let's hope boris has some good news to give on the 22nd Feb.

I have used IMHO or IMO.

But just because I am lazy and it is shorter

I agree, day to day (hour to hour) fluctuations are impossible to stay ahead of unless you are trading large sums and using a computer to execute trades.

The PM has set the date for updates on travel as the 22nd of Feb. So take your position will it be positive and therefore worth buying at this level or will it be more of the same and another pull back?

I'm an optimist by nature so I'm happy to hold and see where the market goes but I don't think infection rates will rise further.

I think when people see a vacinne is being rolled out they assume 100% protection hence the SP rises.

It then falls back as reality hits and people see that it is not a shield but will reduce risk.

Once that lower risk is scaled up and serious hospital infections fall people will again have more confidence to buy.

I saw an opportunity late on Friday and I'm hopeful that a few weeks of falling infection will also lead to a slow but steady rise in the SP.

280-290 whilst lock down is in place.
290-310 when lock down is lifted.
Then when cruises are announced as being able to resume that will be the big lift we need, but that needs multinational approval so not entirely in the Uks hands

Nothing harder than timing the market.
I'm about evens at this SP as I was lucky and sold before the big drop in march and bought back at relatively low prices.

I had my finger on the button to buy some more but decided to wait. It could fall further so no rush to buy and if it goes up then I will just make money on my current holdings.

230-240p and I will give it another look. My only hesitation is that at some point the vacinne will impact the infection and death rates. Which will boost markets across the board so fomo is my only reason to buy today

Hi orient.

Reading between the lines it seems you are looking to outlay roughly 250k-300k on saga stock.

Looking for a tripling of the current SP in 4 years to come out at £1m+

These are far bigger numbers than I invest but really the question is do I think the SP will be £10 in 4 years?

I would not be that optimistic. In old money it would be equivalent to 66p prior to consolidation.

If it hit that in 4 years I would be toasting your health.

My expectations are a rocky 2021 with some ups and downs with us hopefully hitting £4 come the end of the year.

After that it will depend on what debt we have accrued as to future share growth.

If your SIPp is due in 4 years my worry for you is that this is a big gamble to take so close to retirement.

I'm aiming to be in boring bonds with 10-5 years pre retirement.

But I wish you well

Given there are no rabbits being pulled out of hats, there will probably be a pull back from the optimism of last week.

Hard to say where the value is, but probably a safe price to buy at.

There was always going to be some profit taking after the recent rises.

So only ouch if you are day trading and bought above £3.

Im looking to hold for at least £5-£6

There seems to be some confusion about vaccinations and how viruses work.

First of all both viruses and vaccinations are not 100% effective. They are biological agents and therefore like other biological creatures subject to imperfections.

So saying I am vacinnated why should I care if anyone else is mia understands this point.

Think of it as a room full of people throwing tennis balls at each other whilst wearing velcro. The older you get the more the velcro sticks.

Now if you are vacinnated most of the velcro is removed. You will still get hit by tennis balls as they fly around but the odds of them sticking to you are lower.

Clearly if there are less people with the vaccination then the odds are that even though you are vacinnated you will still be hit alot and the closer you are the harder they hit (higher viral load).

Vacinnes work best when most people have them as there are fewer balls flying about and fewer sticking.

From a saga point of view the older passangers are the concern as they are more likely to get it and have symptoms that are serious.

Most of the crew will be younger and so less likely to be impacted. Also as employees they can be fired if they don't stick to h&s protocols (whereas you can chuck passangers overboard if they are mixing inappropriately).

In time I am sure when the vacinne is available to all age groups saga can also insist that their crew get the jab or work in an environment with less vulnerable people..

The question for the business is at what point the risk it acceptable to start sailing and having passangers somewhat protected rather than passangers and crew seems a sensible business decision