alb1on15 Dec 2013 14:20
I can only speculate what could possibly have occurred. Let's look at a fictitious Insurance company BODINJINS.
They have 200 outstanding claims for bodily Injury. These claims are allocated to ten senior claims individuals with experience in these sort of claims, so they look after 20 each. They have claims reserves on these 200 claims, and each claim is reviewed regularly and reserves are updated when appropriate. These claims reserves are in the monthly results. So where can under reserving occur ?
Actuaries typically look at large claims reserves, check Reinsurance levels, they may consider loading claims reserves. Most importantly they need to look at ibnr ( incurred but not reported ) this would include and amount for claims which may have recently occurred or changed, but not yet uploaded onto the claims systems. The loading and ibnr values, are subject to individual views and possibly can be mistakenly under or over reserved for.
I have no idea what has occurred within RSA Ireland, and I am most surprised that checks / audits have not picked up any errors. Let's see what the investigation finds.