Member Info for manfor

Keep trimming then

You said £6 for Monday

And others said £7 or £8

AMG

Stop sending me messages on here you stupid old fart

Hopefully CBG shares can stay above £3.50 tomorrow

CBG have between 5% and 6% of the UK Motor Finance market according to GPT

6% of the expected £13.5 Billion compensation is about £800 million

That is higher than the current CBG market cap

Not looking very good if CBG has to pay £800 million and also not expecting any dividends for a few years

CBG have between 5% and 6% of the UK Motor Finance market according to GPT

6% of the expected £13.5 Billion compensation is about £800 million

That is higher than the current CBG market cap

Not looking very good if CBG has to pay £800 million and also not expecting any dividends for a few years

Hopefully CBG shares can stay above £3.50 tomorrow

Https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-consult-motor-finance-compensation-scheme

So assuming an average compensation scheme of £13.5 Billion

And a CBG share of the UK Motor Finance Market of 5% to 6%, according to GPT

Gives a compensation bill for CBG of about £800 million

That is more than the current Market Cap for CBG

So it does not really look like there is much to celebrate with this FCA Scheme and the shares could even fall quite a bit below £4 again

Mec

No idea where you are getting 79p from

Market Screener is showing 40p for 2027 and lower than 40p for 2025 and 2026

Close Brothers site is showing average 50p for next two years and several analysts have below 50p

£4.50 opening price and the same closing price

Anything higher than £5 would have to be justified on valuation grounds and it is doubtful that eps will be over 50p in the next few years as CBG have already sold off large parts of the bank at fairly low prices

On a PE of 9 or 10 that gives a fair price of £4.50 or £5

Anything higher than that and you have to then explain why CBG should trade at over 1.5x the valuation of OSB Bank and over 2x the valuation of STB Bank

SG

Another clown who is easy to wind up

Anger Management classes for anyone? lol

AMG

How easy is it to wind you up? lol

And why are you saying do not trust MaryBr ?

AMG

That is possibly a hate crime

You may be reported

Oh no! Mary has arrived! Please, please, go away. Some really decent people on here

You cannot assume the gender of a person from their name

That is misgendering and it may also be a thought crime

As far as I know the person has never said if they are a male or a female

“Anything over £4.50 will make CBG look expensive when compared to other UK banks such as OSB or STB”

That is correct

Do your own calculations and you will see that both OSB and STB are better value than CBG at £4.50

Nothing funny or ridiculous about it

Just simple facts

OSB another medium size UK bank is only trading on a forecast PE of about 7

So with even the most optimistic forecast eps for CBG of 50p it is difficult to see why CBG should be trading at much over a PE of 8 or £4

OSB also has a dividend of about 6%

And STB is even cheaper than OSB on a forecast PE of about 4

I would expect a relief rally on Monday of perhaps 10% or 15% for CBG but anything over £4.30 will make CBG look very expensive when compared to other UK banks such as OSB or STB

This is a fairly insulting offer and a crude attempt to buy IPF on the cheap and at below book value

IPF has huge growth potential in high growth and developing markets and it was also not so long ago that IPF shares were trading at over £6

Forecast eps for IPF next year is 30p and then 35p the following year, and so they are trying to take over this high growth company on a PE of less than 7

IPF is a high growth company and the shares should be able to get back to £6 within the next few years

Any offer below £3 is simply not acceptable

Do any of the experts here have any views or opinions on the relative market valuations of ITH and HBR ?

They both seem to have a similar Market Cap now

HBR have about 4x the production of ITH, but HBR also has much more debt than ITH

So are they both undervalued?

And which one is more undervalued?

Do any of the experts here have any views or opinions on the relative market valuations of HBR and ITH ?

They both seem to have a similar Market Cap now

HBR have about 4x the production of ITH, but HBR also has much more debt than ITH

So are they both undervalued?

And which one is more undervalued?

Q. Is there a possibility that Tunisia will also get a win on this next case?

A. It is possible but it is very unlikely given the easy win for Zenith in ICC-1 which was a similar case

ICSID will also be held in Washington and there will be no question about possible bias in favour of Tunisia

The ICSID case is very clear cut

Tunisia appropriated the assets of Zenith

Zenith also has the very best legal team

I would estimate the probability of victory for Zenith in the ICSID case at about 95%

Always do your own research though

The fall of over 75% this week has been completely absurd

An expected win ICC2 case for $130 million was surprisingly lost for unknown reasons, and that case will now go to appeal

If the top legal arbitration team in France has said that there were multiple procedural irregularities in the ICC2 case, you have to assume that there will be a very good chance of another ICC2 hearing for Zenith

The other ICSID case for $500 million is completely separate from ICC2, and this amount is likely to be increased by over $100 million due to the addition of interest etc

So the total claim remaining is basically unchanged from $630 million and yet the shares fell by over 75%

The ICSID case was always considered to be the most likely case to succeed as it was a clear case of misappropriation or theft under a Treaty Agreement between UK and Tunisia

It is also very similar to ICC1 which was won easily by the Zenith legal team

I expect that the ICSID case will also be won fairly easily next year in Washington, and if that happens Zenith shares will be nearer 50p

“With all due respect, the chance of a successful ICSID case has dramatically dropped”

Why?

Tunisia appropriated their assets

It is not a difficult case for ICSID to arbitrate

Happy Investor

There were very good reasons why Rockhopper lost

The arbitrator appointed by Rockhopper did not disclose his previous criminal prosecution in Italy

And there were also other good reasons why Rockhopper lost

I expect that Zenith will win their $500 million ICSID case next year fairly easily

There are no legal grounds or good reasons why they should not win

And they have the very best legal team

After they win their ICSID case next year the Zenith share price should be well over 50p