Member Info for manfor

Talos are small fry compared to HBR and so it is difficult to see how a merger with them would create much value for HBR shareholders let alone full value

Much better for HBR and their shareholders to be taken over by one of the mid size or large US oil companies for the equivalent kind of share price valuation that mid size and large US oil companies are currently trading at on the US stock market

That would require an offer price for HBR at somewhere between £6 and £8

Gocpi said

The possibility of another bidder at over 30p is also probably higher than Sidara not paying 30p next year

What a load of baloney

Read it again stupid

The poster is saying that the probability of Sidara paying 30p is about 97% certain

The probability of Sidara not paying 30p is about 1%

And the probability of another bidder paying over 30p is about 2%

If Barclays do make a bid for OSB they will have to offer over £8

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/barclays-next-chapter-may-have-an-ma-twist-2025-11-13/

“Starting to suspect a no vote may be on the way but I hold to the view that it means admin or DFE or a placing”

That is unlikely

Sidara will not walk away after a NO vote

The most likely result of a NO vote is that Sidara will then offer a higher bid at 35p or 40p

It’s really not that complicated. If the institutions were genuinely voting yes, they’d be snapping up everything under 30p, simple arbitrage logic. We’d be seeing TR-1s flying in, volume surging, and the price hovering around the offer level.

Not true

Institutions already own most of the shares and so they will not be bothered about buying a few more from retail investors

No institutional TR-1s publicly backing the deal.

So what?

Institutions are not required to issue any statements about how they will vote

Voting is secret for all shareholders

You keep saying that the NO vote has got 26% and so the Sidara bid will definitely be rejected

Where have you seen this information? Do you have any evidence for this statement? Are you just making it up?

Have you read the FCA warning below about posting information that is not public knowledge or information that is false or misleading?

Your posts may constitute market abuse and this could lead to an unlimited fine and up to 7 years in prison

So what is your answer?

1. Is it safe to assume that the various lawyers for Lloyds / Barclays / Santander / CBG etc. will all be aware of the many legal points and arguments against the FCA redress scheme that have been raised here on LSE by Knot ?

2. And will the lawyers for the various lenders all talk to each other about the many legal flaws and faults of the FCA redress scheme ?

For example, if Santander decide to take the FCA to court over the redress scheme, will the lawyers for Santander also be made aware before the court case of all the various legal points and arguments that have been raised by the lawyers for Lloyds and Barclays ?

The FCA keeps repeating this same nonsense statement “liabilities back to 2007 exist, no matter what”

Liabilities for lenders back to 2007 do not exist at present

Liabilities will only exist for lenders when the UK Supreme Court decides that any liabilities actually exist for any specific cases going back to 2007

Perhaps the FCA believe that if they keep repeating this same nonsense statement often enough it will come true

CBG shares were at about £8 before the FCA problems started

The worst possible FCA figure for compensation now is £300 million and so this is equivalent to about £2 per share as there are about 150 million shares

So it is difficult to understand how CBG shares are still under £6

The £300 million compensation will also eventually be greatly reduced to a maximum of about £150 million or about £1 per share

A gradual move for CBG shares back towards £7 and higher therefore looks inevitable from here

Is this Parameta listing ever going to happen?

It was due to be listed in the second quarter of this year

The US stock market is at an all time high so when will it ever be a better time to list Parameta than now?

What is the reason for this absurd delay?

Parameta on its own is worth the current Market Cap and so the Parameta listing could increase the TCAP share price to over £4

So just get on with it and list Parameta now

This litigation in the US could easily end in liquidation for Playtech as the damages could potentially be up to the $15 billion or more in market cap that was lost by Evolution as a result of the defamatory scheme planned by Playtech

Another $15 billion or more could easily be added in punitive damages

So not much chance of Playtech paying damages of $30 billion or more and liquidation would be the only option

The warning signs for Playtech investors were always there when the CEO and other directors helped themselves to over $100 million of shareholders money in the recent executive bonus scheme

Evolution said it had added Playtech as a defendant in its lawsuit and “look forward to finally holding Playtech and its accomplices to account for the significant harm they have caused”.

We will continue to hold Black Cube, Playtech, and all the other players in this defamatory scheme responsible for their misconduct. We are confident in our legal position and look forward to finally holding Playtech and its accomplices to account for the significant harm they have caused."

Evolution said high-level Playtech executives, including chief executive Mor Weizer, communicated with Black Cube about the investigation and report.

Evolution said now that the identity of the party responsible for commissioning the report is known, the litigation can proceed "in earnest".

Customer data and records in the UK are only legally required to be kept by lenders for 6 years

But the FCA intend to “assume” that all of the cases going back to 2007 for which data is not available and not legally required were automatically “unfair”

Chat GPT estimates that this absurd assumption on its own could cost CBG an additional £100 million - £200 million in compensation and so it will obviously have to be legally challenged by either CBG or one of the other lenders

The FCA will inevitably lose such a challenge as it is clearly absurd and even illegal for the FCA to assume that all of the cases going back to 2007 for which data is not available and not legally required were automatically “unfair”

When this absurd assumption is removed the £165 million that CBG has already provisioned is more than sufficient

It will be better for the FCA to back down on this absurd assumption now before the courts or the Supreme Court have to inevitably slap them down

The first FCA forecast was for £13.5 billion, and CBG said they were comfortable with a provision of £165 million

And now the FCA forecast has been reduced to £8.2 billion, CBG say that they are not comfortable with a provision of only £165 million

If the first FCA forecast has been reduced by about 40%, how does this statement from CBG make any sense?

Yes a return to £8 or higher is very likely now

NAV is £10.30 per share

That draws a line under everything now and the liabilities for CBG will clearly be no higher than the £165 million that has already been fully provisioned

The shares were at £8 before the FCA problems started and so they should return to £8 fairly quickly now

Has anyone been able to buy or trade these bonds?

They do not seem to be available for trading with the main UK brokers such as HL and Interactive Investor

Where can they be traded?

They seem to be a good investment and they have a very good yield of over 10%

When will CBG shares ever give such a good yield?

There is no dividend at present

Are these bonds a better investment than CBG shares?

Would it be sensible to switch CBG shares for these bonds?

Does anyone know?

1) What is the current price of these securities?

2) Can these securities be traded online by UK investors with the main UK brokers such as HL and Interactive Investor?

3) If they are not traded by HL etc, where can they be traded?

4) How exactly does the conversion trigger of 7% Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio work?

From the recent results :

Other equity instrument comprises the group’s £200.0 million Fixed Rate Reset Perpetual Subordinated Contingent Convertible Securities, or Additional Tier 1 capital (“AT1”), issued on 29 November 2023. These AT1 securities are classified as an equity instrument under IAS 32 “Financial Instruments: Presentation” with the proceeds recognised in equity net of transaction costs of £2.4 million.

These securities carry a coupon of 11.125%, payable semi-annually on 29 May and 29 November of each year, and have a first reset date on 29 May 2029. Two coupon payments totalling £22.3 million were made in the year. The securities include, among other things, a conversion trigger of 7.0% Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio and are callable any time in the six-month period prior to and including the first reset date or on each reset date occurring every five years thereafter.

NAV per share of £10.30

TNAV per share of £9.10

CBG should really be trading at a minimum of 70% of TNAV or about £6.40

Any prospective bidder will certainly have to offer a price over the TNAV of £9.10