Member Info for manfor

Bvc said :

“Upside is capped at 30p”

That is complete nonsense

WG may still be bought by any other company or Private Equity at a price that is far higher than 30p

Apollo/CVC/KKR/Worley etc may yet decide to buy WG for 40p or 60p or 80p or any other price

Knot said :

“CBG will not be liable for a windfall because their assets are below £25bn (prior windfall threashold) - hence the bank index selloff weighed on the other banks more than CBG”

That is not the case according to the Sunday Times article today

A post on another site says :

Interesting article in the Sunday Times newspaper today about how "Rachel from Accounts" is planning to hit all UK banks (big and small) with a punitive Bank Levy charge to try to fill her financial blackhole.

Doesn't look good for Close Brothers Group PLC coming on top of the compensation payments due to CBG's previous Car Finance mis-selling problems.

Patience said :

100 mill for dividends

CBG share count 146.95 mill=.68p per share

OSB share count 349.24 mill=.28p per share

There is a big difference between OSB and CBG

OSB is on a forecast PE of about 6 for next year and it can easily afford the current annual dividend of about 34p or 6.5% dividend yield

CBG will be doing very well if they have eps of 50p in 2027 and a dividend of 15p or about 3% dividend yield

There is a lot of speculation now about a UK bank tax or windfall tax

Does anyone know which UK banks will be affected by this?

Obviously the big banks like Barclays, NatWest, and Lloyds, will be the most affected

But what about the mid size banks such as CBG, OSB, Paragon, and Metro? Will they be exempt from the bank tax? And if they will not be exempt, how badly will their future profits be affected?

There is a lot of speculation now about a UK bank windfall tax

Does anyone know which UK banks will be affected by this?

Obviously the big banks like Barclays, NatWest, and Lloyds, will be the most affected

And what about the mid size banks such as CBG, OSB, Paragon, and Metro? Will they be exempt from the bank tax? And if they will not be exempt, how badly will their future profits be affected?

Patience said

"So once again you won t be investing so whats your purpose on this board?"

Who said that you can only make posts here if you have bought the shares?

Anyone can comment on anything that they want

“30p - 45p would cost CBG £45m to £67.5m over the next 12 months, easily affordable with their current forcast cash pile”

Are you saying that this will be a one-off special dividend or the restoration of a progressive annual dividend?

There is a big difference between the two

A one-off special dividend of 30p is a possibility for next year but eps for CBG is not even expected to reach 50p until 2027

The restoration of a progressive annual dividend of 15p may be possible starting in 2027

That gives a yield of about 3% at the current price so it is not great when compared to OSB for example with a yield of over 6%

10% probability that Sidara 30p bid is successful

10% probability that Sidara 35p bid is successful

30% probability that Bid by Sidara or Private Equity at 40p or more is successful

50% probability that WG remains independent and share price will be 50p or more within 2 years

Private Equity is not going to let these desert chancers steal away Wood Group for 30p or £200 million when Wood Group profits are about £200 million per year

When Sidara make their 30p offer, there will probably be another 35p offer from Apollo/CVC/KKR within a few days

The bidding war for Wood Group will then begin

No word from knot for a while

Perhaps it was him selling all of his shares?

Will we hear from him again?

How far will CBG fall if he has sold out?

munch munch munch

Gilmartin and the BoD here is so utterly weak and useless that they would probably accept any offer that Sidara want to make

35p? ok sir

30p? ok sir

25p? ok sir

10p? ok sir

1p? ok sir

It is quite pathetic to watch

Market Screener has a forecast eps of 10p for 2026 and that should support a Fair Value share price of at least £1 for WG

Hopefully the Institutional Investors will tell Sidara to get lost, and then elect a new CEO, and then get the refinancing completed, and then get the shares back to over £1 within the next one or two years

Talk about £100 million for annual dividends or 65p per share is far too high

It is highly unlikely that CBG will even have an eps of 65p for several years

An eps of about 50p may be possible in 2027 and that may allow for a dividend in 2027 of about 15p per share

That is a PE of about 10 and dividend yield of about 3% at the current share price

Knot

The eps consensus for all of the analysts who cover CBG is currently 53p for 2025 and 51p for 2026

So I guess you would say that all of these analysts are also clueless?

https://www.closebrothers.com/sites/default/files/IR%20Consensus/Consensus%2011.06.25.pdf

And until everyone knows what the FCA redress scheme looks like, you and everyone else has no idea whether or not CBG will be sitting on any excess capital

Perhaps CBG will have to find even more capital if the FCA figure of £13.5 billion proves to be accurate

The fact is that your prediction of £9 for the first day of trading after the Supreme Court decision was wildly inaccurate

I just hope that there are no people on here who have lost money by following your very irresponsible and very inaccurate predictions

And by the way, your constant references to popcorn are extremely childish and boring

Knot

You must be quite disappointed with the recent share price performance of CBG as you said that you expected the share price would reach £9 on the first day of trading after the Supreme Court decision

We are a long way from £9 now so why do you think the share price performance has been so poor?

And do you have any forecast for eps/dividend/share price over the next year or two years?

I do not see any possibility of a return to 50p annual dividends for a long time

Perhaps the best that shareholders can hope for now is about 50p eps within the next couple of years and a dividend of about 15p

Interesting to see that the RBC estimate is £2 billion lower than the the FCA average of £13.5 billion

And the other obvious problem is how can they possibly get any details of cases going back to 2007 when there will probably be no data available?

It will be difficult to find any large amounts of data or evidence from before 2017

Analysts at RBC have estimated the cost to come in at £11.5billion.

RBC thinks roughly two-thirds of compensation would come from non-bank lenders, which had a larger market share over the period the court ruling applied to. It forecasts £3.8billion would come from the banks, and £7.7bn would come from the non-banks.

Stephen Haddrill, director general of the Finance & Leasing Association, said in a statement: 'We have concerns about whether it is possible to have a fair redress scheme that goes back to 2007 when firms have not been required to hold such dated information, and the evidence base will be patchy at best.

'We will be interested to see how the FCA addresses this point in its consultation.'

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14968167/Car-finance-shares-soar-mis-selling-ruling-analysts-warn-compensation-shortfall.html

Knot

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/STB/final-results-fsbs0kkjg6p6rlf.html

Tangible book value per share increased 4.7% to £18.64 per share (2023: £17.80 per share)

So it is difficult to see how CBG is undervalued when compared with these other smaller banks

Knot

You say that CBG on a valuation perspective is still lagging way behind all the other banks

You have compared the valuation of CBG to Barclays and perhaps it is undervalued when compared to the major banks

But CBG is not a major bank

So what about the valuation of CBG when compared to some other smaller UK banks such as Secure Trust and Arbuthnot ?

They are also on a Price / Book of about 0.6

CBG does not seem to be particularly undervalued when compared to these other smaller banks

These banks also do not have as much risk to the FCA Scheme

Knot

According to the most recent results from CBG they had a NTAV of £8.40 at 31st January 2025

So the current CBG share price to book value is about 0.6 and that is exactly the same as other smaller UK banks such as Secure Trust at a P/B of 0.6 and Arbuthnot at 0.6

Even the much larger banks such as Barclays are only trading at a P/B of 0.7 and Standard Chartered at 0.8

All of these other 4 banks have also been paying their dividends for the last few years and none of them have as much relative risk as CBG to the recent Motor Finance and FCA problems

So CBG does not look particularly undervalued in comparison to any of these 4 other banks

Do you think that these 4 other banks are all as equally undervalued as CBG ?

There will probably be very few or no Motor Finance records going back to 2007 and so there will probably be very few valid claims for compensation

Any records before 2018 will probably have been deleted by the lenders and the dealers and customers do not normally keep their records for more than a few years or until they have completed their car payments

The FCA numbers of £9 billion to £18 billion look greatly exaggerated and the reality will probably be nearer to £4 billion or less

The FCA is clearly not fit for purpose

No short position here

I actually own many CBG but I prefer OSB and STB on valuation grounds and also because they are both paying good dividends