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What do the FT mean by “the expected need to recapitalise the company” ?

It is not the same as the $1.4 billion debt refinancing

So what do they mean by it?

Do they mean new equity? Debt for equity?

“Wood Group is working with advisers to navigate parallel refinancing talks with its lenders alongside the takeover talks. The company is seeking to refinance $1.4bn of debt by October 2026. Any bid is likely to reflect the expected need to recapitalise the company”

50% of the previous offer price will be considered quite insulting to WG, and perhaps also to Sidara, and so I would expect an offer price somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of the previous £2.30 offer price

That would indicate an offer price somewhere between £1.53 and £1.72

I would expect an offer around £1.65

Gap up in morning

James Oxford

Your previous message was not very clear English and so you should check your words very carefully before posting anything in future

James Oxford

I understand all that but your previous post gave the impression that “major investors” had some kind of advantage over ordinary retail investors by being able to receive information about a bid price, and then being able to buy shares up to the bid price, and that this advantage was not available to ordinary retail investors

Your previous post gave the impression that “major investors” could for example hear that there was an agreed takeover bid at 80p, and that they would then be able to buy shares at 40p, or 50p, or 60p, before the market opened for trading at 8am

So just to be clear, I assume that you were not saying that “major investors” have some kind of advantage over ordinary retail investors that allows them to know the takeover price of any bid, for example 80p, and to then buy shares at a much lower price than the takeover price, for example 40p ?

James Oxford said

“To clarity, with regards to Sidara’s takeover of Wood. Let’s say it was agreed and concluded at 4pm today, then the RNS would be released on the LSE at 7am tomorrow, which obviously and intentionally benefits major investors who will buy to just under the agreed buy price. Private investors have to wait until the main market opens at 8am tomorrow to trade. This is why private investors who think a sale of Wood will occur need to buy soon…in order not to miss the boat”

What do you mean by this?

How can major investors buy WG shares between market closing and market opening times?

Are you saying that the takeover price may be secretly leaked to major investors before a 7am RNS and these major investors will then buy WG shares up to the agreed takeover price before the market open at 8am ?

Would this not be insider dealing?

And on what market would these major investors buy WG shares outside of LSE market hours?

And if such a thing happened, which seems unlikely, surely the people involved will be guilty of insider dealing with the potential for prison and prosecution?

The market is not yet really recognising the huge value here

Parameta as a company on its own will probably be worth more than the current Market Cap of ICAP at £2 billion

The 2 companies combined should be valued at about £4 billion or about £5 per share

Https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-reasons-buy-british-american-tobacco-stock-theres-no-tomorrow

“British American Tobacco's investment appeal lies primarily in its compelling valuation, with shares trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 7 times its 2025 Wall Street consensus EPS. This earnings multiple stands significantly below its industry peers, with Altria Group trading at 10 times forward earnings and Philip Morris International at 17 times, suggesting BAT shares are undervalued”

The very low valuation of BAT v the very high valuation of PM is actually quite absurd now

They both have very similar products and sales and profits but PM has a market cap of about 3x BAT

If BAT was to simply move the main listing to the US the share price would probably be well over £50

Bearded Dragon :

“Mary, just two days ago you were saying 80p was too low to sell. Make your mind up girl.”

Please be very careful about misgendering people

We have no evidence that MaryBr190 is a girl or a female person

It is up to her/him/they if they want to inform us about their chosen gender at any time, but until such time as she/he/they choose to do this, please be very careful about misgendering people

So the full claims are about £500m maximum

And there are now about 500m shares

So the maximum possible share price here is about £1 if the full claims are won

Market is now currently pricing the shares at about 50% above the normal price of about 5p or about 5% of the maximum claims

7p seems about right for now but the shares may drift down further again to about 5p or about 5% of the maximum claims

Very little prospect of any dividends here unless either claim 2 or claim 3 is won

Hi romaron

Thanks for the reply

Well I guess there may be some small risk but it seems that the Iran shares are held in a Jersey trust and the US have been ok with that position up until now

If Trump wants to go after Iran there are many other sanctions and things that he can do and I doubt that he would bother making things difficult for a small British oil company like Serica

This is from the SEC website

“The Bruce Field Joint-Venture is party to an agreement governing certain transportation, processing and operation services provided to another joint-venture at the Rhum field in the UK (the “Bruce Rhum Agreement”). The licensees of the Rhum field are Serica (50%, operator) and the Iranian Oil Company UK Ltd (“IOC UK”), a subsidiary of NIOC (50%), an Iranian government-owned corporation. Under the terms of the Bruce Rhum Agreement, the Rhum field owners pay a proportion of the operating costs of the Bruce field facilities calculated on a gas throughput basis.

In November 2018, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (“OFAC”) granted a conditional license to BPEOC and Serica authorizing provision of services to the Rhum field following the re-imposition of US secondary sanctions. The principal condition of the license is that the ownership of shares in IOC UK by Naftiran Intertrade Company Limited (the trading branch of the NIOC) are transferred into and held in a Jersey-based trust, thereby ensuring that the Iranian government does not derive any economic benefit from the Rhum field so long as US sanctions against these entities remain in place. IOC UK’s interest is managed by an independent management company established by the trust and referred to as the “Rhum Management Company” (“RMC”). Where necessary TEP UK liaises with RMC in relation to the Bruce Rhum Agreement and TEP UK expects to continue liaising with RMC on the same basis in 2021.

In January 2021, OFAC renewed the conditional license to Serica authorizing the provision of services to the Rhum field, until January 31, 2023, subject to early termination if the trust arrangements described above should terminate. In addition, OFAC confirmed that, to the extent that the license remains valid and Serica represents that the conditions set out in the license are met, activities and transactions of non-US persons involving the Rhum field or the Bruce field, including in relation to the operation of the trust, IOC UK and RMC will not be exposed to US secondary sanctions with respect to Iran”

Romaron

“We know Trump hates Iran and if he even gets a sniff that the OFAC license for Rhum is up for renewal there's a fair chance he'll cancel it. Without Rhum Serica are finished”

Why would Serica be finished without Rhum?

They have many other assets

And what is the problem with Rhum?

If the OFAC license was cancelled because of the 50% Iran ownership then Iran would just sell their 50% to Serica or someone else

Why would anyone take any notice of GS views?

They are only interested in their own profits and they will manipulate everything for their own benefit

Do you ever see GS downgrade any of the big US oil companies even though they are all about 3x or 4x more expensive than HBR? No

HBR are now the largest independent in Europe and yet they still have a far lower Market Cap than Aker BP or Var Energy

Aker BP £11.3 billion

Var Energy £7 billion

HBR £3.8 billion

HBR will eventually trade at similar levels and even when they are at £5 they will still only be at half the valuation of US oil companies

Does anyone know the answer to any of these questions?

1. Is this case ultimately going to be heard by ICSID in the US in a similar way to the Zenith Energy case?

2. If it is going to ICSID when is the case expected to be heard by ICSID?

3. Is the case here as strong as the Zenith Energy case or not as strong?

4. What kind of return can be expected here if the claims are successful?

5. Is there any other value here apart from the legal claims?

6. Why did these reach 33p in 2020 and then fall back down to 4p in 2023?

“we have won the first decisively and the second should be a formality”

This statement is also not correct

We have no view of the evidence on either side

Zenith will make their case and Tunisia will make their case

It is not possible at this stage for anyone to know what the award will be or if there will even be any award

“Recent TR1 shows increased holdings from a fund which is great”

This is not correct

There has not been any big stake building in Zenith

The TR1 simply refers to the total holdings of the many thousands of customers of the Swedish broker Nordnet

It is a bit like Hargreaves Lansdown saying that they own 5% of Zenith shares

It does not mean that anyone is building a stake

It just means that many thousands of HL customers each own a tiny amount of Zenith shares but the total adds up to over 5%

Nordnet is a broker and the notification is simply the total holdings of their retail investors

It is just like Interactive Investor saying that they hold 5% of a company

SC is posting the same nonsense comments on the other board about how much profit he is sure to make

A sensible poster then pointed out in the following post that the Zenith share price can just as easily fall to 1p or less

Scenario 1

Arbitration Loss – No Payout

Zenith loses the ICSID arbitration entirely, with the tribunal deciding that Tunisia’s actions were justified or that Zenith’s claims lacked merit.

The company could face financial ruin with no payout or compensation, and the stock price could plummet.

The investor could lose their entire £14,200 investment, as the share price might collapse, leaving them with nothing

Scenario 2

Partial Award – Limited Funds, Prolonged Legal Battles

Zenith wins a smaller portion of the claim, say $50 million instead of the full amount. Legal costs and delays stretch out the timeline, and the expected payout doesn't materialize in time for the investor to see a significant return.

The stock price remains depressed or stagnant due to the long wait, and the investor may end up with just a fraction of their original investment

Scenario 3

Regulatory Setbacks and Continued Legal Issues

Zenith faces ongoing regulatory challenges or delays in enforcing any arbitration award, and the company struggles to stay afloat.

The stock price continues to decline as the company deals with its financial and legal battles, leading to further devaluation of shares.

The investor could face 70%-80% loss of their investment, with the stock price potentially falling below 5p per share

Scenario 4

Bankruptcy or Forced Asset Sale

Zenith’s legal battles and financial strain force the company to declare bankruptcy or sell off key assets at a significant loss.

The investor could lose 100% of their holding, as the stock becomes worthless or extremely diluted in the aftermath

Because the amount they are claiming is so much higher than the original cost

They are claiming $500 million for an asset that cost them only $300,000

So they want 1,700x their original cost !

Let us see all of their figures, and calculations, and assumptions, etc, to see if it makes any sense

And then let us see what Tunisia says

You can be sure that the experts and lawyers from Tunisia will calculate a figure that is closer to $1 million

Callit

The main 2 court cases have not even started yet

And so they are certainly not anywhere near to being decided

SC

You should stop misleading people on here with your constant ramping about £500 million

There can be no certainty that the final award will even reach £5 million

The Tunisian government are not stupid

They will have their own experts and lawyers to make their case to the court that the correct amount is far less than $500 million and much closer to the original cost of less than $1 million