Member Info for Mando_

https://www.coastfm.co.uk/news/business/investment-bank-numis-reports-itself-to-watchdog

Investment bank Numis reports itself to watchdog after retracting memo about THG 'irregularities'
Sky News has learnt that Numis has reported itself to the City regulator after an employee circulated a bearish note to institutional clients last week accusing THG of "a lack of clarity" and casting doubt on the value of Ingenuity, one of the company's three main divisions.

The article goes on a lot. Take a look at the link.

Sincerely, I'm happy about that!!! Great!

hope Goldy7's stop loss at 175 didn't get triggered.

Bought another 1500 shares at 176

lol
I know exactly what you mean.

I go back to Friday 16th October/Monday 18th October.
That week the stock fell 37%. PUT options would have expired on the 16th. Co-incidentally on the Monday 18th October, the Special Share RNS came out at 7am. The stock opened that Monday 7% up and closed the day +20.53%. I'm not saying that will happen here, but one bit of good news and the SP will soar. The shorters just can't push this down much further as it's so crazy to have a stock with a Market Cap at £2.2b when the revenue forecast is £2.2b for the year. It makes no sense.

Trenners. Do yourself a favour and watch the last two webinars on the THG investor relations website, and browse some of the THG sites. This company is way undervalued now. The SP is dropping due to fear that the SP may drop. It's not dropping based on the valuation of the company. At some point in the very near future, the market will chill, and the stock will become a strong buy again. At that point, the stock will rocket and people will struggle to catch it. e.g. a further drop of 2%-3% this week is worth ignoring, if the market opens +5% on Monday off the back of some minor positive news.

Ignore the history. Is the share great value now. 100% yes

(179.0)

If it does go down, I'll just sell off some of my US stock and buy more. Already bought a little more at 170 today.

As Pokerchips pointed out, I can't see this going on beyond this week with PUTS expiring this week, and a Q4 update announcement due within the next expiry date.
No company stays valued 1:1 with its annual revenue forecast for long.

Feels like the selling pressure has been switched off in the last half hour. Multiple single digit volume trades.

hahaha Kallu I could go into a lot of detail, but I'm sure you'd try to pull it apart to create FUD based on my experiences looking at your previous posts.
I'll give you a quick one for the fun of it: The CURRENT 2021 revenue is higher than the company's current market cap.

I don't care about an imperfect interview to be honest.

I like what he's done with the company, plans for the company, how he manages his team, his ethics such as charitable giving and goals of being a clean brand, the way he strives for continued growth, his principle belief that he should give back to his investors more than what they gave him (which is why he was angry in the interview and spoke out of turn).

I like the company structure, the financials, the growth plans, where I expect the share price to be in one year, two years.

One dodgy interview. Couldn't care less really.

I think he understands it.
How else could he answer the GQ question to that audience? He couldn't exactly say he was happy about the share price being short attacked. Clearly it has been short attacked. There is no good business performance reason for it, no matter what fud has been created around the business. It was clearly a typical post IPO Investor lockup short attack. They expected it, but probably didn't expect it to this long or hard (that's what she said).
To his other point about possibly taking it private, he made me some nice profit the day following that interview, so I'm ok with it.

When a growth company's market cap is below Analysts' consensus revenue forecasts, you know it's an undervalued company.

https://www.thg.com/analyst-consensus/
Analyst Consensus
The analyst consensus data below is compiled and updated by THG (THG PLC) on a periodic basis. It represents a summary of the forecasts made by sell side investment analysts who provide their own research analyses and earnings estimates in respect of THG. Data taken as at: 04.11.21___Data taken from 12 out of 12 publishing analysts.

FY21
ALL FIGURES £M UNLESS STATED___Revenue__Revenue Growth %__Adjusted EBITDA__Adjusted EBITDA Margin %
CONSENSUS____________________2,206________36.7%______________188.5_________________8.6%
MINIMUM_______________________2,138________32.6%______________175.0_________________7.9%
MAXIMUM_______________________2,243________39.0%______________210.0_________________9.4%

@Pokerchips
Extremely good point about the expiring Puts. I wouldn't want to be in Puts past this week considering THG could (likely) be issuing a Q4/FY guidance update coming before the next expiry date. Last year THG announced Monday 7th December

Valueplay - In one of the webcasts THG show they are implementing the Autostore system in their warehousing. I think SoftBank see huge potential in both companies separately.

Yes. Same profile picture on his LinkedIn and THG Board sites.

https://www.thg.com/board-of-directors/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ahansson/

Agreed.
I watched a number of youtuber analyst ratings which to be fair were all recorded prior to the webcasts, and they rated the company based on 20% to 30% growth rate per year in line with historical trends, but their infrastructure and capacity has developed for far, far greater potential than that now.

Softbank wanted to invest in Ingenuity separately prior to IPO and invest 1.6bn and valued it at about 6bn but THG said they were not ready yet as they wanted to understand the true market value - this is mentioned in the webcast in the Q&A, probably by mistake, which is why they went for the options deal. There's also a snippet that says they think they can get above 23bn within 5 years. Now they are using the networking of Softbank and T-Rowe to build pipeline, and it seems the pipeline is very good and Ingenuity does offer something other e-comms providers cant get anywhere else as an all encompassing platform, from hosting to marketing to fulfilment, site build and maintenance, CRM etc. Coming from a retail and manufacturing brand background, what they have does look very very good to be honest. They talk about https://www.clinkspirit.com/ as a case study which has endorsement from the brewery in the webinar.

(that was meant tongue in cheek, but you never know lol)

I'm remaining positive. I think we just hit the all time low.
Mark this day!
:-)

Key highlights
· H1 2022 leveraged net trading revenue at £101.0 million (H1 2021: £200.4 million) down 50% as a result of a decrease in market volatility resulting in lower client trading activity and client income retention reverting towards guided levels.
· Leveraged client income retention for the period at 80% with 53,834 active clients, down 9% versus H1 2021, and up 29% versus pre-pandemic H1 2020 levels. Total client money ("AUM") in the leveraged business stood at £557 million, a new period-end record high.
· H1 2022 non-leveraged net trading revenue was £24.2 million (H1 2021: £26.3 million) representing 19% of Group net operating income versus 11% in H1 2021. Underlying client numbers increased 10% versus H1 2021, now standing at 185,847 actives.
· H1 2022 net operating income was £126.7 million. FY 2022 net operating income guidance reiterated at £250-280 million.
· Operating costs for H1 2022, excluding variable remuneration, were £83.7 million (H1 2021: £79.1 million). The increase is primarily a result of the Group's continued investment in technology staff. Variable remuneration costs decreased to £6.0 million (H1 2021: £9.8 million).
· Announced the acquisition of approximately 500,000 Share Investing clients currently trading with CMC through our white label arrangement with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ("ANZ"). The clients bring total assets in excess of AUD$45 billion and the transaction is due to complete in the next 12-18 months.
· Regulatory total capital ratio of 20.0% and net available liquidity of £182.7 million.
· Interim dividend of 3.50 pence (H1 2021: 9.20 pence) with a total dividend for the year expected to be in line with policy at 50% of profit after tax.
· As announced on 15 November 2021, the Board intends to undertake an exploratory review to consider the viability of a managed separation of the Group's non-leveraged and leveraged businesses in the interests of maximising shareholder value.