Member Info for Mando_

Did you know that in every single English dictionary there is one word spelt wrong?

agreed.
I loaded up loads more today.
Never been more convinced on a relatively new IPO business which has actually now been around for some time, but about to boom with the new global logistics structure.
For me this is the new BooHoo.
If it drops 10% next week, I don't care. Fully loaded now.
Boohoo dropped similarly a year after IPO, then grew nearly 2000% in the next 5 years. If THG do the same, I'm now retiring in 3 years.

(sorry, rushed message didn't make any sense lol)

agreed.
I loaded up load more today.
Never been more convinced on a relatively business which has now been around for some time, but about to boom with the new global logistics structure.
For me this is the new BooHoo.
If it drops 10% next week, I don't care. Fully loaded now.
Boohoo dropped similarly a year after IPO, then grew nearly 2000% in the next 5 years. If THG do the same, I'm now retiring in 3 years.

@railride. I liked that part too. Made me like MM more.

Algorithm's switched to buy...

.

Last week around 6m shares traded over the last 2 weeks between 189p to 192p above this price.
We have about 1m shares trading today below 190.
This is a rough ride for sure, but I think it's a new natural shakedown based on fear from historical drops and continued negative media.
It's not about the value of the business

People are getting burned through fear. Hoping the people who have sold today are able to buy back in before the jump. It's going to come at some point for sure. The amount of times I've swung from one negative trade to another thinking I'd have more luck elsewhere, only to lose more on the new stock and watch the original stock run straight back up past my original breakeven point. Gutting to see retail investors getting taken out like this

@yrabsmurruc agreed, but is it impossible for next week to be 15% growth? I don't think so.
I think it's likely for a swing up next week, probably starting this afternoon.

@Valueplay, I've spoken about the Lockup-period a number of times before so if people are interested in my thoughts they can go through my messages on my profile.

But "Share price dropping" certainly isn't a reason for me to not see value in a business over the long term. Even if this drops another 2% (which I don't think it will), I'll be looking to buy more.

Retail investors should look here: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/thg/ownership
Click the buying and selling and Funds and Institutions. See how funds and Intuitions have been growing their positions. If I am misunderstanding the data, please let me know, but when I see Institutions and Funds buying 50% more than they are selling, I can see the retail investor is the one getting played.

Kando, BlackRock didn't sell 195 at a loss, it was at a profit for them. They started investing in THG way before the IPO and still hold 10% in the business after their reduction in position to take profits which likely always planned post the IPO Investor Lockup period ended. The stock was also bought up by an institutional investor - so why would they invest in THG if they thought the business was worth less than 195? The sell off we see here is from private investors panicking sadly.
I don't like to profit from other private investors losses, but at these prices I have to buy more.
This isn't me trying to ramp the share price. I don't think this little message board is seen by most retail investors selling today sadly.

got another 1250 at 190.5

Stop losses tested again.

@Kallumama
I agree and disagree with some of your points there.
I have a costco membership and the major manufacturer I worked for sold TV's to Costco, who do also have a dire etail site, but ranging and sales were tiny compare to Currys, and the brand I worked for didn't want to sell their TVs via Amazon for such a long time due to not wanting to devalue their brand, losing premium status, and just shifting business from Dixons to Amazon, so their focus for the last 2 years has been all about building their own etail platform to ensure the brand was kept premium and retail pricing could be better managed with partner resellers.

Dixons continued to perform well over covid considering lockdowns, due to their ability to maintain their website sales, and managing click and collect, but their retail sales are struggling, and store staff continue to struggle to sell premium product features and benefits, especially at peak trading times when new staff are brought in to cope with last minute xmas trade and jan sales. Most of the time the stores are dead. Even Argos needed to be integrated into Sainsburys stores to reduce store costs, and Argos was the most efficient retail models basically.

Richer Sounds, a tiny specialist business which although is very very good, purchases their stock via distributors such as Exertis or VIP etc and hold little stock on hand in stores now.

ALDI and LIDL, again, a completely different concept. As the high street dies off, we are left with out-of town food superstores which continue to do well for major shops, and convenience quick shop stores such as Aldi and Lidl. Personally, I now get deliveries from Tesco for items I can't pick up at Aldi, and do a quick weekly shop in Aldi each week. Aldi/Lidl - great retail businesses, but not relevant to THG's proposition.

TKMaxx, a store which sells overs and end of life stock which doesn't actually range products, they mainly buy jobbed off stocks, I know, I've tried selling to them. A model which works well for them, but again, not relevant to THG at all.

@yrabsmurruc
It COULD still get back to £5 very quickly.
Look at BooHoo
IPO'd around 85, dropped 71% and dropped over 50% almost exactly a year after IPO (sound familiar), then gradually climbed 1000% (!!!) over the next 2 years, fluctuated between a 60% range for the next 2 years, then grew another 50% from the high of the 2nd year, and has now come back down to that 2 year high level again.

But from the base a year after IPO of 23p, it grew 1800% to 433.5p overall in 5 years.

I'm not saying this will happen with THG, but there was a reason THG IPO'd at such a high price and institutional investors hold a huge amount of investment in this company and have ADDED to their positions as they wiped out the retail traders as the price has crashed.

Completely agree Ian.B, people should always do their own research on companies and think for themselves and fact check any hype or fud on message boards and the media.

Personally, if I look at this business compared to a company like Currys/PC world, I would say that the THG valuation is high based on current revenue numbers and profit etc. However, having worked previously for Dixons in their Head Office commercial team previously for over 5 years, and having worked for another major retailer in the commercial team for 8 years, the future continues to be online trading, and one of the biggest issues that Amazon has (having also previously worked for a major UK manufacturing brand for 7 years selling to Amazon), is that they still very much struggle to market premium brands well, and differentiate premium brands due to their basic philosophy of stocking everything from A to Z (as the smile in their logo indicates), selling cheap tat next to premium products. This is what makes THG so different as an online retailer. Their flexibility to create new brands, growth them until they're worn out out and create new brands to replace them, keeping things fresh and selling at a premium, and also their ability to white label another brands website. I can tell you most manufacturers own brand retail websites and logistics are dire. To be able to build this model to scale and white label operate manufacturers websites logistics and retail platforms could be absolutely huge.
Just my thoughts.
Cheers

Hi yrabsmurruc
To clarify, I think fair value "right now" is 220-240, but investors major investors will be looking at the potential fair value in 5 to 10 years, and they invest well ahead of time.
I think next year the fair value price will be about £4.00 based on the global expansion they have invested in over the last year.
So I'm investing today so that by next year I think I will have doubled my money at least.
I think by Xmas the price should be about 300 by about January hopefully.

I wouldn't say the stock is worth £7 tbh,
I think (and I've said this here previously) I think THG fair value right now is about £2.20 to £2.40 so in line really with the latest broker rating.

I think this is the final treeshake. This will pump from here

Just bought another 5,000 shares at £1.925638 of £1.936064 including fees and duty.
Big volumes this morning.