Member Info for Malik-

What’s your basis?
So the other day you turn up saying our new incoming chairman is great.
Now after the share p rose, you come to downplay the story and talk of need of placing.
How much cash do you estimate the company has today? What’s your view on their cashflow generation currently?
For what purpose would they raise the money right now in your view?
What do you think is the downside from here? 30%?
What’s the implied value of hydrogen opportunity at 30% 26p?
Let me help you. Implicit mcap at that level: £9-10m. Legacy business valued through the cycle at 9m. So implicit value hydrogen at that market cap is around ZERO?
It will FLY if they announce a placing.
Don’t comment if you are not armed with arguments to sustain your out of the blue thesis.

It’s just another buying opportunity.
Stock valuing hydrogen opportunity now at an even lower £5/6m through the cycle.
No brainer.

Mkt missing significance of Burwell energy storage pjct.
Has the potential to be THE game changer for the co.
When operational it could generate EBITDA of £6m/yr (100%) based on 50MW and £120k/MW peer valuation (co gave this number). At 12x multiple, Burwell could be worth c£75m: 25x mcap (!)

Another great readaccross.
EMH just managed to raise AUD5m from a Luxembourg ESG fund, despite its Cinovec project being cashed up for 20m...
Have a look at EMH share p reaction: soared.
CLEAR APPETITE of financial institutions to fund our type of projects.
We share the same deposit, and the more money (and smarter) they obtain, the better the prospects for a resource consolidation in my view.

In calculating the value assigned to hydrogen, you obviously have to deduct from the market cap the value of the legacy business. This latter was valued by the market at £5m pre announcement. The legacy business is profitable on a normalised basis - and the market had assigned it a 5x EBITDA multiple just before the hydrogen RNS. That’s a low multiple. In a post Covid world, that multiple should rise back to 8.5-9x as it used to be, meaning: the value of the legacy business would rise to £9m.
The market is now valuing the hydrogen opportunity at £11m in a Covid world; and implicitly at £7m (16 current mcap less 9m) in a normalised post Covid crisis scenario.
Needless to say the hydrogen opportunity is priced for a black-sky, when you think of the enormous upside potential!
I maintain that the risk/reward profile here remains clearly attractive.

https://www.h2green.co.uk/

I am not privvy to info which you all don’t already have. I read the websites of the cos and the press releases.
What’s clear, is that a company of the scale of SGN doesn’t sign MoU with anyone particularly when it’s to plan the upgrade of its gas network so that it welcomes hydrogen. In Europe, gas networks are entirely focusing on that long term goal (see Italian gas utility Snam), since Co2 emitting natural gas will be replaced by hydrogen.
This company is not an AFC, nor an Ceres nor ITM power.
It’s focused on niche market helping create the hydrogen network in the Uk.

This to me is more of a utility like service.
And the advantage of it is you are looking at multiples of EBITDA in the double digits.

*Capex of £500m per year
*fund

Is SGN.
It’s a regulated gas network.It has £6bn of assets.
SGN has monstrous Capex programs (£500m) and since its a regulated utility, it would obtain a guaranteed return on that capex.
Utilities find themselves via debt, and have big cope for leverage particularly when regulated.

https://www.sgn.co.uk/sites/default/files/media-entities/documents/2020-07/SGNAnnualReport_2020.pdf

Forget what Getech do.
They have a profitable legacy geology/tech business.
What matters is what they will become through what they are buying, and for how much they are buying it.
And what the target, H2Green’s plans are and its MoU potential.
Then add to this, the new incoming chairman founded a company listed on Nasdaq valued at $4.5bn now.

PLS READ the extended thread below.
It touches on your questions...

Violent retracing from peak makes this a clear buying opportunity.
Say if you valued Mozambique at ZERO; and look at the implied valuation of SAV resource in current share p compared to say Piedmont (which have offtake); you are looking at Sav trading at c3x discount.
Stock is CHEAP.

Welcome Ant.
I got in the day after the hydrogen RNS.
This is one of my biggest convictions for 2021.
Excellent risk/reward profile. Downside very limited? (Read back my posts below). Upside could really be enormous. Think of ‘multi-million £ EBITDA opportunity per site’.

EMH released some drill results constituent with overall resource grades.
More relevant is this “ The primary purpose of the programme is to convert a larger portion of the resource to the measured category to provide greater certainty to the financial model and security for the financiers we are currently in discussions with.”

Key here is financiers they are in discussion with.

The better the outcome of EMH’s Cinovec, the better the read across for us.
We share the SAME deposit.

Added here.
Stock is priced at 1/3 of valuation multiple of Piedmont, making the EMH share p derating overdone in my view.
Expect a very sharp re-rate when an offtake announced.

Bought back in. Past placement disappointment aside, stock is clearly cheap - even assuming silver p pre-squeeze; and big leverage to rising silver p.
Cashed up. Drilling ongoing on iron ore assets that have significant expl target of 74-245Mt at 50-63% grade.

I repost what I wrote previously, as I think it’s key.
I wonder what the downside is for here?...
Will it halve? Ie got back to pricing just legacy business and value hydrogen opportunity at zero? The legacy business by the way is priced cheaply at 5x EBITDA? Go back to trading at 0.5x Book value?
The risk/reward is VERY attractive. For me this is a no brainer buy

I wonder what the downside is for here?...
Will it halve? Ie got back to pricing just legacy business? Which by the way is priced cheaply at 5x EBITDA?
Go back to trading at 0.5x Book value?

The risk.reward is VERY attractive. For me this is a no brainer buy.

(And as side note, have a look at the AFC share p after their announcement in June of a significant £30m placing).

I am not playing the synergies between Getech.
I am playing the acquisition of H2Green.
Sites identified, the opcos and the resulting “ Modelled project economics indicate that this strategy has the potential to generate 'multi million pound' annual EBITDA at each site. ” (from rns)
Hydrogen opportunity valued at £5m in a getech is a JOKE

Read this fromH2green website:

“The exclusive Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement provides a path for the SGN Group to invest in any developments that result from this collaboration, affording both H2 Green and SGN scalable exposure to a high-value network opportunity in an exciting growth market.

Key here: for the SGN Group to INVEST in any developments that result from this collaboration