Member Info for Malik-

Stock down 40% on NO fundamental basis; just parting from a technically overbought level.
Stock here discounting ZERO value for HYDROGEN opportunity. It is trading at BOOK VALUE.
Legacy business trades on c9x EBITDA through the cycle. Meaning, fair value of the legacy business is £10m alone.
Market cap now £10m...
=> ‘multi million pound’ Hydrogen opportunity discounted in shares now at NIL!
MASSIVE UPSIDE. Downside risk? Very limited.
NO BRAINER entry point

You are an idiot
£10000 buy print just now

On sale. No brainer entry price.
Stock pricing at a ridiculous £2m (!) the transformational opportunity to be part of building the hydrogen network in the UK together with partner SGN (co-owned by SSE and infra funds).

https://youtu.be/MDS6NFBrGX4

Following the BCN capital increase, to which Ganfeng subscribed, Ganfeng further raised its stake in BCN to 28.9% (from 25.8%).
Since BCN has 44% stake in ZNWD, Ganfeng’s indirect stake in ZNWD is now of c13%!

Where have you been? should have a look at the Lithium stocks index.
Prices have bottomed, they are up 40% in Jan, and people are expecting the market to get tight this year.
What matters is where you think mid-cycle lithium prices are and are heading. And given share p performance of the whole space since Oct expectations has clearly been on the way up - bye bye assuming spot prices forever. People pricing a tightening in market from here, so prices rising from where they are.

Very helpful many thanks.

And you apply that multiple to what you see as a NORMALISED through the cycle sustainable revenue number.

(And by the way I am being very conservative with that multiple... I am using 30x 2022 expected sales to value AFC Energy, which I hold as well)

Hydrogen companies are valued on an expected sales multiple.
The way I think of valuation for GTC’s hydrogen opportunity is as follows.
Have a view of recurring annual revenues the company will get via an agreement between H2 Green and SGN.
Then apply an 8x multiple to that revenue number.
And here, they aspire as per their press release to multi million of EBITDA per site. EBITDA is revenues less cash operating costs. In other words, the implicit revenues numbers they think of are a lot higher.
You get the point. The upside potential is HUGE.

What sort of valuations do you think one should apply to the Mozambique asset?
It’s discounted at close to nil in share price...

Agree.
We are trading around 15% cheaper than EMH here.
Technicals are oversold. I expect a quick bounce.

Reminder of the action plan timeline set by UK government for hydrogen:

I think there could be a chance projects like this one could also be eligible for funding help by govt. gov mt set out £240 million Net Zero Hydrogen fund for the sector (aside from production, not clear what this also encompasses). Exciting times, and lots to look forwards to.

Target milestones
2021: Publish our Hydrogen Strategy and begin consultation on government’s preferred business models for hydrogen
2022: Finalise hydrogen business models
2023: Work with industry to complete testing necessary to allow up to 20% blending of hydrogen into the gas distribution grid for all homes on the gas grid
2023: By 2023 we will support industry to begin hydrogen heating trials in a local neighbourhood
2025: We hope to see 1GW of Hydrogen production capacity
2025: Will support industry to begin a large village hydrogen heating trial, and set out plans for a possible pilot hydrogen town before the end of the decade

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution/title#point-2-driving-the-growth-of-low-carbon-hydrogen

Yes so you say there is 20% downside...
20% downside vs sky is the limit? And at 20% downside hydrogen opportunity valued at nil.
Definitely sounds like a sell to me ;)

Focus on what matters. Watch this video.

https://youtu.be/MDS6NFBrGX4

Post derating since yesterday, the stock is now priced at 2-3x discount to Piedmont, on a resource multiple basis.
Clearly, great entry point.

I am reposting this:
Read this fromH2green website:

“The exclusive Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreement provides a path for the SGN Group to invest in any developments that result from this collaboration, affording both H2 Green and SGN scalable exposure to a high-value network opportunity in an exciting growth market.

Key here: for the SGN Group to INVEST in any developments that result from this collaboration.

Perhaps. They didn’t ask my question about deposit consolidation either.

I mean I wrote a question about the other 50%...
Host never asked it.

I did.
They didn’t ask.
Vox markets host is poor.