Member Info for Malik-

And I await you challenge me fundamentally and intellectually rather than post petty baseless and unsophisticated comments.

>>Just hate cross rampers with nothing but a geographical notion and no substance from either company to go on

This guy isn’t well. He read the article i posted the other day on the matter. He responded at the time and now he posts this.

Other issue, is you need an analyst to be fully on top of news flow and to be on top of the story and to be publishing regularly updating his estimates, valuation and investment thesis.

One of the main problems, is that most of retail don’t have tools nor fundamental knowledge to value a company.
This is why posting here and sharing together is so useful.

It’s a terribly inefficient marketplace when retail are those that make the price. It’s the case here and on Aim in general...
The flip side of the coin, is those that know what they are doing have plenty of time and opportunities to add, before a stock reacts. It’s a very slow market, but when it moves, it moves fast.

Have a look at
1) European Metals Holdings - We sit on the same deposit on Herman side of border
2)Bacanora - They own 44% of Zinnwald
3) Vulcan Energy - They have geothermal lithium project in Germany
4) Savannah Resources. They have spodumene project in Portugal

*are heading
*mcap

To value a company you need to have a view of where sales are Headh your are right.
Have a look at the Enterpise value to sales for the peers.
I derive that with ABB agreement we could be easily heading to annual sales of £17-20m pa - enough to justify a macro >£700m. To that the add massive optionality from Extreme E promotion.
Stock is VERY CHEAP

Before that it was just catch up lost ground on what was a ridiculous differential in mcaps between Afc and its peers.
Now, we got ABB agreement which is a true game changer for the company, and we are heading to Extreme E which will offer great promotion as an added optionality.
ZERO reason. Why this is not already on £700m mcap

AFC has been a clear underperformer year to date.
Catch up imminent!

Share p performances since 1 Jan:
AfC -5%
iTM +30%
Ceres +10%
Plug Power: +94%

Says the person who asked me to contact EMH with my proposal before I sent him the article about what the companies themselves are saying.
This is a political matter in any case. The key player here is Czech R govt, who themselves directly own 35% of EMH’s project: almost as much as you :). Looking forward to seeing what the German govt thinks of Czech R pocketing all the fruits from German battery demand, when they themselves have a resource. Forget Vulcan for now, which will in reality take years and huge investments to establish.
Oh and forgot to mention, the Chinese also own 6% of Zinnwald’s project indirectly via Bac.
Sometime will get involved; and the multiple Zinnwald’s trades on will re rate by >4x to converge with that of EMH&peers.
Exciting times.

Fluoride gets a big premium yes.
Agreed. Beyond me how inefficient and unsophisticated this AIM market is.

And by the way Newboy Bac retains today a 44% shareholding in Zinnwald.

Bacabora sold it when it was trading at 20!
A third of today’s price, so when it was a third the size of the company it is today. And at a time, when no one wanted to touch lithium (including banks).
To focus on its main asset in Mexico.
World has changed since.
Bac probably fuming at having lost a what would been a massive gain since.

Just pasting here what I just posted on the EMH chat on response:

“1) It’s a BANKABLE FS, so way ahead of PFS.

2) Those BFS’ financials are based on metrics for Lithium FLUORIDE. Higher price obtained, and higher cost. The project can make carbonate, looking now at hydroxide.

3) They have right of refusal on remaining 50%; which is owned by a company in administration. it is ZNWD intent to buy the minorities. Since the counterpart is busy, the price ZNWD is expected to obtain to buy them out should be very attractive.

4) Have a look at this chart I posted a couple of days ago on my Twitter page comparing the valuations to Lithium plays. ZNWD trades at bombed out valuations. Being effectively the same deposit as EMH, the valuation multiples will have to converge. https://mobile.twitter.com/Malik49977264/status/1351120278559084551

5) If you merge both entities’ assets - ZNWD and EMH you get: a) the LARGEST lithium producer in Europe with 35ktpa LCE production, I estimate. b) You improve IRR since you taken on the volumes for limited Capex - since you don’t need two mines but only one. Not two plants but one.”

You are missing:
1) It’s a BANKABLE FS, so way ahead of PFS.

2) Those BFS’ financials are based on metrics for Lithium FLUORIDE. Higher price obtained, and higher cost. The project can make carbonate, looking now at hydroxide.

3) They have right of refusal on remaining 50%; which is owned by a company in administration. it is ZNWD intent to buy the minorities. Since the counterpart is busy, the price ZNWD is expected to obtain to buy them out should be very attractive.

4) Have a look at this chart I posted a couple of days ago on my Twitter page comparing the valuations to Lithium plays. ZNWD trades at bombed out valuations. Being effectively the same deposit as EMH, the valuation multiples will have to converge. https://mobile.twitter.com/Malik49977264/status/1351120278559084551

5) If you merge both entities’ assets - ZNWD and EMH you get: a) the LARGEST lithium producer in Europe with 35ktpa LCE production, I estimate. b) You improve IRR since you taken on the volumes for limited Capex - since you don’t need two mines but only one. Not two plants but one.

My view is since it is effectively the same deposit as EMH’s Cinovec, and given my belief that there is strong rational for the asset to see light of day, ZNWD’s resource multiple should converge to that of EMH. With a minority buyout, this gives a fair value of >60p.
And this is before any optionality from what could turn out to be a tightening in the hydroxide lithium market this year and higher prices.

You should be cheering for the prospect of a potential business combination with EMH. This would be a huge uplift to value to Bacanora share price.
Moreover, your arguments were sensible, when Bacanora was trading 20. The lithium space has changed since, and dramatically so.
Bacanora probably fuming for having sold their 50% share at that price...
Made sense when no one wanted to touch lithium. Makes less sense when Lithium was added as critical mineral in the European, after Tesla battery day and after a Biden win.

I expect this year 1) a buyout of the 50% share Znwd doesn’t own in the resource first.
2) the M&A story to come the forefront.
The better the lithium sector performs/the more the thesis of market tightened pays out the quicker this should happen.
Let’s say the sector is now in a totally different place to where it was pre Tesla batter day and more importantly since the Biden win.

But my whole argument here is on a rational of merger/takeover of ZNWD and EMH.
That combined entity would have output potential of >35ktpa making it the LARGEST upcoming lithium producer in Europe; for limited incremental Capex to EMH.
This would be a very significant player overall.