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I particularly their case that the stock is pricing in very low gold price and so any correction in the gold price should have virtually no impact on valuation unless really extreme.

“ The company is in net cash and should generate >USD200m of FCF pa from Telfer this year-on and over the next three years at least we estimate at a conservative gold price of say USD 2700/oz. In other words, at that gold price, GGP can more than self-fund Havieron to production. At spot gold instead, GGP would also be left with > USD1bn of excess cash in 2028 (>40% of current market cap). Just for reference, given this is such a low-cost producer and developer, we think the stock presents upside even in a very low gold price scenario of USD 2300/oz gold in perpetuity. In any case, the company has put options on c40% of volumes over the next couple of years at a gold price of USD 2600/oz – protecting cashflows from any gold price downside yet keeping the upside unhedged. All in all, at this share price, you are getting Havieron for a cheap implied value of cUSD 100-150/oz.”

New note from Asymmetric Research on natural resource stocks including a section on GGP. They seem to like the stock a lot.

https://asymmetricresearch.substack.com/p/transformational-upside-bets?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

.

If you say 1) Telfer only produces for 2y and no more AND

2) input a gold price of a low $2400/oz

You end up with fair value of >15p…

This thing is CHEAP no matter what happens to gold spot p…

On Gold (and GGP).

From Asymmetric Research. Great short note.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-161870210?source=queue

On commission from an account that posts their stuff for free?

I wish!

A Must subscribe- to account for anyone following commodities.

From these very smart guys…

https://substack.com/home/post/p-161283323?source=queue

I think their analysis and valuation makes a sense.

Thy calculate a gold price implied in the shares now of below $2400. Meaning the stock is very conservatively priced.

New piece out from these guys below which looks at some gold stocks valuations including GGP.

They write quality stuff on various commodities incl gold and uranium.

Must subscribe to account. It’s free and probably not for long!

https://substack.com/home/post/p-160778185

New report from these guys looking at sulphuric acid in Kaz.

Link above.

Definitely worth following their research.

“ What people overlook in s&d forecasts:

they assume: 1) Kap can’t ramp up, 2) overfeeding happening big, 3) Japanese inventory sales are over, 4) physical funds able to buy a lot 5) some have restocking despite ok inventory levels 6) overlook use of loans of material”

Definitely worth reading their analysis and its free.

Must read analysis for those invested or looking at the uranium space - about the supply outlook…

They take a contrarian stance here.

https://substack.com/@asymmetricresearch

Congress passed a bill banning imports of uranium.

And this is not moving? !

Spot at 83 and talks of getting above that after close.

Imminent re rating?

Spot 15% higher.

What a buy!

Spot price doesn’t care: Numerco showing a rise last night: 69.5!!!

At $61 here!

Implied uranium price in shares at USD61.5/lb here…

Stop wasting your time with this crap.

What matters is you are buying uranium here at 57.8 and the discount is widening while uranium p rises.

This is great buying opportunity.