Member Info for Malik-

So actually at $195/t coal the stock is now on 80% FCF Yield thanks to favourable FX movement.
Screaming buy!

And MARET MISSING fact that USD/ZAR is 20% stronger now than vs H1!
This flows straight through the bottom line and valuation.

Coal dropping…
It NEVER appropriately priced in coal at $300, let alone at $200…
At $240 you are on nearing 80% FCF Yield ex cash.
This is SO oversold.

.

*maintenance

I am buying ;)
Care and main fence is something they should have done a while ago.
The gold is there. The mine is there.
Sprott is very much aware that ops have improved - they are getting the gold.
Gold price is an issue short term.
They ll be bailed.
Yes could go to zero. That’s priced at 95% on shares already.
Or blue sky at 40p.
I take that bet.

The co was breaking even at 1800 gold.
Only reason why we are got this press release is decline in gold p.
This is why this will be salvaged.

I am buying here.
Stock discounting now a 90-95% probability of going bust.

I am taking that other side of that bet.
Expect bailout by Sprott.

On its way back to 1600, as I argued. THIS IS to be become THE FLOOR price. It’s just the level at which the strike impact that was way over discounted in the shares corrects.
But this is really just detail. Way more important, is the stock is truly DIRT CHEAP at $250 coal.
Ex cash, the company trades on a monstrous 70% FCF Yield (and as I said many times also on a ridiculous 2.5x PE) and has no debt! Calling it a cash cow is an understatement…

This stock can easily TRIPLE from here.
BUY.

.

In fact it should be at 1600, since c2 months worth of strikes have already been fully factored in the shares.
That overreaction needs to be eliminated, as a consequence.

Well
The stock should be back to 1550+ on this.

Implicitly, >2 months of strikes are already fully factored in the shares with full loss of output FOREVER.
This is a massive buying opportunity .

I am adding here.
Back to nonesense correction - 2.5x PE at spot coal.
Strike impact widely overstated in the shares.
BUY on weakness.

Just buy this share.
This strike news is a buying opportunity.
It’s been widely over factored in the shares already - as i said a few days ago by a factor of 10x vs what the company has indicated as possible impact from it.
Coal prices at current levels are no weaker than in H1.
Stock on 2.5x PE ex cash.
BUY

.

Oh and PS: no one has noticed that ZAR crashing vs USD by 13% since H1 is super beneficial to the company.

Here we go again.
Dumb selling.
Coal prices declining.
Stock as at H1 had experienced the same coal price as what it is trading at today.
It’s on ROADKILL 2.5x PE at today’s coal price, despite the coal p derating.
And now we hear Russia May cut the supply coal to Europe and divert East…

Again, the stock here factors in nearly 3 months of lost output forever from the strikes.

BUY BUY BUY!

Lol stock now discounting 2.5months of strikes with zero sales - for what the company warns of a 2% hit to output - so something like 10x larger bring priced in.
This is such a no brainer buying opportunity.
Ididot retail investors framing out and opening to amazing entry point - just at time when winter hits Europe.

It’s overacting to the downside massively and a reason to buy!
Put aside the fact that this stock is dirt cheap.
And say if it were priced accurately, which evidently it isn’t, the derating we are seeing today is equivalent to something like 35 days of lost sales from strikes! And that assumes a week that this is a permanent loss; while it simply a non recurring event which will make next years comparables
easy.
It is so overdone - :-)