Member Info for Malik-

Lol delays.
At LEAST two more massive rights issues to payoff overpaid staff til any of the order book starts flowing through revenues.

Very strong balance sheet and manageable debt ;)
Lol

Actually your maths are wrong.
They used up cash and bitcoin since.
It’s probably £80m of net debt now ;)

It’s speaks for itself til it doesn’t.
This will spike at open and is a selling opportunity.
Don’t be fooled they remain with an enormous £80m of net debt pile - since this only lowered their debt by a third- as such nowhere near enough.
Unless bitcoin flies very soon they just postponing the inevitable chapter 11 .

Wrong.
They are replacing part of the debt with this new Galaxy debt.
Read the comments of CEO.
Reduces debt by 40m.
They had 120 of net debt or so
Before.
This reduces it by a third only.

It’s a sell on any price spike today.
Company remains insolvent with £80m of net debt.

.

Happy days?
The company continues to have £80m of debt after this deal.
This is widely INSUFFICIENT.

These idiots are just averaging down.

Another batch bought at 354.
$c41/lb U price implied here - 16% discount to spot.
What a gift!

POSITIVE news this am.

South African MPs yesterday voted DOWN move to begin impeachment proceedings against President Cyril Ramaphosa. This significantly reduces uncertainty that hit the shares of late.
Impeachment required 2/3 majority in Parliament to vote in favour of impeachment - while only 40% ended up voting so - meaning it came well short of the needed votes.

As per BBC, Now that hr has survived the vote, he is thought likely to win re-election at his party's conference, which starts on Friday. He will then be in pole position to become the ANC's presidential candidate at the next election in 2024.

Continuing to load up today.
15% discount to NAV on an overbought GBP…
This is such a no brainer.

That would be such a gift ;)

People keep one talking about the risk to Thungela from a scenario of peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Please read my analysis on this subject above.

.

The way to think of valuation multiples for this company, is every day that passes with coal prices remaining so high, everyday does the valuation multiple need to indeed expand , simply because you get one step closer to closing the gap between cash and the market cap.

(Of course I don’t assume peace is signed tomorrow, but in 6 months time. Something which I think most of us agree is the more probable timeframe).

People calling the prospect of peace in Ukraine as a big risk to coal prices, and so to Thungela.
For Thungela, the risk in my view, is much smaller than people think…
Say there is a peace resolution in 6months time. At 195/t acheived price til then, expect cash pile to close in 6m time at >USD1.4bn (pre divi).
At that point, say the coal price collapses to $80/t as peace is announced.
Since the company would have by then grown so much more of a cash pile, the marginal impact on the share price will diminish markedly from lower coal price.
You can look at my Freecashflow calcs of other thread.
If you say a 20% yield is fair valuation at 80/t; then what you get given the substantially larger cash pile, is the risk to downside from here is ONLY LIMITED to 15-20% so to 1100-1150p at $80/t coal. And again this assumes the company does nothing with the cash pile in terms of M&A/ new activity and surprise…
The further away a resolution is from that point, the lesser the impact obviously.
As such, I think your argument of peace resolution as being a killer to the stock is indeed misguided.

Another way to put it.
Say there is a peace resolution in 6months time. At 195/t acheived price til then, expect cash pile to close in 6m time at >USD1.4bn (pre divi).
At that point, say the coal price collapses to $80/t as peace is announced.
Since the company would have by then grown so much more of a cash pile, the marginal impact on the share price will diminish markedly from lower coal price.
You can look at my Freecashflow calcs of other thread.
If you say a 20% yield is fair valuation at 80/t; then what you get given the substantially larger cash pile, is the risk to downside from here is ONLY LIMITED to 15-20% so to 1100-1150p at $80/t coal. And again this assumes the company does nothing with the cash pile in terms of M&A/ new activity and surprise…
The further away a resolution is from that point, the lesser the impact obviously.
As such, I think your argument of peace resolution as being a killer to the stock is misguided.

In other words, seeing a peace resolution as destroying the stock is indeed narrow minded and misses the point that the company can surprise through its gargantuan cash pile.