Member Info for Malik-

With a company having and generating so much cash, it’s a race against a peace resolution…
As I said several times, by end next year or thereabouts this company’s full market cap will be backed by cash.
Technically, having so much cash changes dramatically the possibilities open to a company. It can venture to new areas, it can radically change its core field. This via M&A notably.
In the meantime, the company is generating >USD2m/day of cash.

*basing your PE

Please stop baking you PE calculations on market cap including cash.
It should be market cap EX CASH. Since the mountain of cash is penalising your PE multiple, which makes no sense.
Ex cash PE is around 1!

People should do the maths before panicking on narrative x
This share remains DIRT CHEAP.

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(The above are FCF/year sensitivities to a range of realised thermal coal prices).

Factoring everything in we discovered today: Higher opex/t, insurance costs (recurring of cUSD12m /year), higher discount to spot than than at H1:
Here are my calculations of Freecashflow (FCF) in 2023, assuming non recurrence of strikes, derailing etc (their FCF impact was $120m fyi). All below assume realised p at 15% discount to spot.

*At 195/t realised price: $850m FCF/year. FCF yield ex cash 71%.
*At 150/t realised price: $540m FCF. 45% FCF Yield.
* At 85/t realised price: $75m FCF. 6% FCF Yield.

Valuation remains highly attractive!
BUY

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Factoring everything in we discovered today. Higher opex/t, insurance costs (recurring of cUSD12m /year), higher discount to spot than than at H1:
Here are my calculations of Freecashflow (FCF) in 2023, assuming non recurrence of strikes, derailing etc (their FCF impact was $120m fyi). All below assume realised p at 15% discount to spot.

*At 195/t realised price: $850m FCF/year. FCF yield ex cash 71%.
*At 150/t realised price: $540m FCF. 45% FCF Yield.
* At 85/t realised price: $75m FCF. 6% FCF Yield.

Valuation remains highly attractive!
BUY

Idiots selling down.
The insurance cost - the recurring part going to be ZAR200m/yr this is merely less than
1% on FCF yield per year.
It’s insignificant!

Sorry lots of typos, I rewrite:
No you should: 1) adjust for the one off non cash charge they are taking as I discuss above. Then you should calculate PE on market cap EX cash. Since the enormous amounts of cash artificially inflates your headline PE.
It’s on 1x adjusted PE

No you should: 1) adjust for the one off non cash charge they are talknf as I discuss below. Then you should calculate PE on macroer cap EX cash. Since the enormous amounts of cash artificially inflated your headline PE.
It’s on 1x adjusted PE!

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Plenty of info on here.
Net net the KEY TAKE is as follows:
* GUIDANCE for 22: EPS 131Ran/sh (No shares of 133.7m) => this figure includes one off hit from closure of Kwezela complex one off NON cash charge of USD63m. Excluding this: net income 2022 guided at USD1080m. This number is the fire CONSISTENT WITH H1 performance, annualised. This means we trade on BOMBED 1.2x PE ex cash!!!
If there is one take from the results it is this…
This factors 236/t average raised price with 15% discount to spot.

* Whole costs guidance are higher, BUT the volume impact from strikes, rail performance and derailing is much less than people had expected. In fact relative to volumes, -0.6Mt from these in 2022 (-5% on group volumes). The new target of saleable volumes of 12.8Mt is indeed 0.1Mt better than prior mid range guidnace! In sum, the volumes hit from the strikes etc is probably less than HALF what’s priced. As such, the hit to the shares are more than factoring in the net effect of these two.
*Massive cash pile as at Nov: USD 1150m vs 909 in H1. This is BETTER than I had expected.

Thanks for the selling. I was sitting on the other side of the trade buying, and buying more.

Stock in free fall.
Nonsense reaction to release which posted a loss.. none sense because that’s had already been reflected in NAV of company.
They are simply marking to market the U price in the financials.
Stock now at 13% discount to nav.
Bear in mind they GBP/USD is likely to weaken so you are staring at lookthrough 15-16% discount to nav - so very close to pricing in $40/lb U.
What’s the downside? … With 2x+ upside potential.
MOST OVERSOLD SINCE COVID CRASH with RSI very close to then.

NO BRAINER BUY. BUY. BUY.

Stop wasting time on this. A 0.2pp reduction keeping c14% ownership…
Focus on what matters.
The numbers as per above.

(Impeachment would require 2/3 of Parliament voting in favour… But we know the ruling party which itself has already said it would vote against impeachment itself has a majority in parliament. That impeachment is going to be voted down).
And then fasten your seatbelts on the shares.
Higher coal prices and maths have been totally ignored in favour of noise.
Time to reload.

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Time to buy therefore ;)