Member Info for Malik-

That’s correct.
If you assume they sell their product factoring in the doubling yoy of fertiliser prices - in line with market trends then you can say the average achieved p would rise to c$60/t. That’s already $12m or revenues.
Then grow the Opex in line with capacity growth yoy and apply some inflation.
We know Capex is limited. I also assume they won’t pay tax since they been loss making previously so should get tax credits.
That gives you something in this ballpark.

Bought in. Peer company Verde Agritech trades on 30x PE but their guidance is based on previous volumes numbers - they raised capacity since.
I am willing to pay 15x PE for this biz. At 15x and 200kt that’s £60m valuation for HMI, so close to 2x upside.

This co is going to get crushed on the cost line.
Inflation that is….
Their costs were already totally out of control in their last financials and commentary.

Glencore just took a 10% stake in Horizonte Minerals. Shows the appetite there is not just for nickel but laterite deposits like those of Corcel.
HZM has broadly same size resource and grade as Corcel yet is 50x larger by mcap (£300m).
Eyes on WoWo JORC upgrade & BFS by June.

Recall, I had described previously that I see 10x upside to Corcel stock. This, just on valuing the Ni assets at a mere 3%NPVe and conservative valuations for one of the gas peakers - and zero on everything else.
BUY

Stock now down to lows of 2021 yet not only is NDPR p nearly 50% higher since, the co also doubled its shareholding in the RareEarths asset since to 100%.
Trading like roadkill.

Just added c£10k now.
This is totally overdone.
GREAT BUYING OPPTY.
Don’t lose sight. Trading on crushed valuations. Macro environment ever more supportive for project, and sector.

(Again for clarity USD1.6bn is my estimate of Npv for mine + separation at spot ndpr)

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NPV is actually USD 1.6bn on my number. No this is not a joke, you read it correctly. I hear assume spot NDPR prices.
Very simple - have a look at the FEED numbers of Pensana’s press release in March. These numbers are for an integrated mine + separation, just like us -
Bear in mind that Mkango project is for 2ktpa rather than Pensana’s 4.5ktpa.
Then, two more things to adjust for 1) Pensana has I think only 85% of their project while we have 100%. 2) Pensana’s NPV numbers assume USD150k/t NDPR. Spot is higher at USD200k.

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This is one of the few credible analyst covering micro caps.
BIG PT.

https://twitter.com/alignresearch/status/1512323022514003969?s=21

Market completely misses the following:
UK Government yesterday doubled the planned production capacity from hydrogen to 10GW. It also offered a big £400m loan to company Johnson Matthey for its research on hydrogen and green tech.

Hydrogen’s fortunes took a turn for the better resulting sadly from the geopolitical conflict. Both the EU and Uk are doubling down on their support for hydrogen as a critical tool to ensure energy self sufficiency and security.

Stock up only 10-15% since trading update yet the company announced much better than expected FY2021 trends and disclosed that 2022 trends are following a similar 20-25% revenue growth.
TOO CHEAP.

People are completely missing the fact that given the current Ukraine war:
1) Europe is doubling down on its aspirations of energy independence, and security of supply. This is seen by the strong renewed push for the Fit 55 program. This has also been highlighted at EU level in regards to critical minerals, in recent official meetings.
2) Poland which has placed itself at the centre of the solution to welcome refugees and as a strong supporter of western democracy and in standing up to the East, is making this project ever more as reality. Whatever divide there was between Poland and the EU is now clearly history.
3) Finally, this project was recently included in an EU document on critical raw material projects in the continent.

Also note the UN vote yesterday - Malawi voted with the West, while Angola (where Pensana has its project) abstained. This is something that will further endorsement of MKA’s project, imo - in a jurisdiction that is even friendly to western values than that of Pensana.

In other words, the chances of this project becoming a reality has markedly SHOT UP since the start of this awful Ukraine war - and yet no one is paying attention and just focusing on petty moves on share price.

This is a NO BRAINER BUY. Trading at bombed out 4%NPV and HALF the valuation of Pensana. Yet it is the Pensana for EU. This gap will close.

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Recent derating offering great buying oppty.

Trading on CHEAP 4% NPVe at spot NDPR p (mine + separation): nearly HALF the valuation of peer Pensana PRE.
Relative discount unwarranted - for the only co to build an integrated Rare Earths pjct in EU - and with EU backing.
BUY

With a massive hydrogen opportunity discounted in the shares at mid single digits £m, and favourable macro environment throughout for the company - the stock is significantly undervalued in my opinion. BUY

EXCELLENT trading update this morning.
Revenues 2021 +c20%, order book +25%.
Growth trends seen in Q1 2022 said to be consistent with those of 2021.

I said a few days ago that I had estimated revenues for 2022 were already trending at +25% higher yoy => this is confirmed in the press release.

In my view, this company is PERFECTLY placed in the current macro environment via 1) hydrogen becoming ever more critical for energy independence in Europe in particular, as a result of the Russia/Ukraine war and it is becoming increasingly economic because of the explosion of gas prices. 2) via high oil prices, which benefits its oil&gas division through higher Capex spend 3) its newly formed critical minerals division will benefit from a raised need by govts to re-shore mining of raw material - again as a result of geopolitical events unfolding which compound on an already tight raw mat global supply chain.

I look forward to the series of catalysts at hand:
1) offtake partners talk imminent
2) update of WoWo JORC in April
3) BFS WoWo June
4) Mambare lease due any time.

Just added to my position at 25.
Company has managed to win contracts year to date ADDING 25% to YEARLY revenues; and finally started generating initial revenues from newly formed critical minerals division.
Yet this has been TOTALLY overlooked by the market.
Furthermore, a high oil price and energy crisis unfolding in Europe is positive for the company via BOTH Hydrogen and Oil exposure. Green hydrogen is now cheaper than grey hydrogen because of explosive gas prices and move out from reliance on Russian gas will cause a push towards hydrogen that can be created in Europe and 2) soaring oil prices will lead to more exploration and so more demand for Getech’s products. This will be compounded for its critical minerals division with a move by Western Governments to deglobalise critical minerals and focus on reshoring of the mining of these raw materials.
BUYING opportunity!

If if if.
This is the principle of investing in ANY stock.
Second I am not talking of about hugely favourable risk/reward profile for 20 or 30% - that should be obvious.
This negativity is exactly why this is a massive buying opportunity.
You need to do some maths to work out the upside potential.
I have summed this up on here before:

1)For the nickel resource:
Look at TSX listed company Nickel 28 which has an 8.6% stake in an operating nickel mine in Papua New Guinea, which is majority owned by Chinese group. That nickel asset has lower grades than Corcel at just below 0.9% and is of similar size: 220Mt resource.
Implicit value of that nickel asset at 100%? USD1.2BN.
Yes you read that correctly USD1.2BN.
Ok we are not operating and are awaiting a license. Value this at say a ridiculous 3% on NAV and you get to c£30m valuation.
2) For Avonmouth
Reasonable to assume £5m of revenues per year over 15y, at current gas p and confirmed capacity market revenue.
At 80% margin, this is conservatively worth c£15m post financing.
3) Say ZERO value for anything else.

That’s £45m valuation for Corcel, and I am being very conservative here.

You get the point. We are discounting nearly a TENTH of this.