Member Info for Malik-

£31/KW for 15y.
Co estimates point to all in revenues of £103-147/KW - implying c£5m / year.
That’s equal to the mcap each year, from just one of the two gas peakers. Other peaker to participate at next auction.

FINAL capacity market auction CONFIRMED.
(See p14)

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity%20Markets%20Document%20Library/T-4%20DY%2025-26%20Final%20Auction%20Results%20Report%20V1.0.pdf

Again, remember they talk of £1.5m of revenues per year at £31/Kw. At £125 it’s £4m per year, at 147 it’s close to £5m per year - or the market cap per year.

https://mobile.twitter.com/corcelplc/status/1499310012342145027?s=21

These are MASSIVE numbers for revenues let alone gross margin.
First time I see them disclosed. I believe they have updated their numbers for current explosive gas prices.
Recall, capacity market revs would make up £31/KW so 25% of possible revenue potential from the peakers.

Stock correction overdone and offers great entry point.

Trading on bombed out 3% NPVe (mine + separation) at spot NDPR prices, on my calcs.

Need for West to secure access to critical minerals, of which rare earths been top priority, ever more important.

BUY

The short argument on the stock is over.
I thought it was a short back in March last year.
The stock has cratered since.
It’s now just way too cheap for the resource it’s got.

.

PEEL are probably amongst the least credible brokers in the city.
Small cap coverage, with analysts bedding the company for fees.
I certainly wouldn’t look at what they are doing to getting any insight.

Comment just above is a reason to buy :)
Priced as Roadkill as I said. People so sceptical that the surprise scope is really skewed to the upside.

The market is totally missing the signifcance of the lithium story.
You get a globally significant 100Mt and possibly 200Mt - on petalite.
Then more found in spodumene now.

Incredible that this is discounted at NIL in the shares.

This stock being entirely disconnected to NDPR prices makes a ZERO sense.
Yes there are delays. But this is priced like ROADKILL.
At spot NDPR it’s valued at 4% NPV on an integrated project.
Moreover, Rare Earths is a space which will benefit from all geopolitical mess. The need to diversify away from those legacy countries which control the supply chain ever more important.
This is not the time to sell, it’s the time to load up.

BIG news to quiet the sceptical about ATM’s lithium story.
Co discovers spodumene in its adjacent license - pegmatites over 2km strike.

On CHEAP >20% cashflow yield on tin only, with Li byproducts probably TRIPLING cashflow generation for FREE.
BUY

I am obviously not saying they have 200Mt of Ni in ground,
I am saying it’s 200Mt to which you then apply the 1% average Ni grade to get contained nickel. I am sure you can do the maths yourself ;)
This number factors in effective share of both resources.

Meanwhile Nickel prices are nearly +25% year to date…
And this trades as though it’s an explorer without any resource.
It’s got a 200Mt nickel resource!

*project

Only fools push the spot price as a buying argument.
What you been missing all along is how this stock was priced versus PEERS.
What matters is RELATIVE valuation.
Moreover NOONE values a probs t based on a price which is many times higher than new entrant cost.
Also, even the key producers aren’t obtaining anything near spot price.

Stafy - source of your info please.

I believe it can take part in T1 auctions until its T4 auction kicks in - and participate in autumn.

I may be too conservative on margin - perhaps they achieve 60%, in which case you looking at c£20m for this one asset.

Let’s describe again what the gas peaker valuation implications are:

1) All in revenues achieved by peakers is of c£100/Kw. That would include the capacity payment of £31/KW. Recall the capacity payment is a guaranteed revenue and a minimum revenue to keep your asset on standby, and you get to make up the difference with arbitrage opportunities and ancillary services.
2) The other gas peaker WILL participate at the next auction. (They take place semi annually, if I understand correctly). It hadn’t participated in this last one.

All in all, the company had tales of £1.5m revs per year (over 15y) from capacity payment. At £100/Kw you are looking at revenues of £4.5m/yr!

At 10x PE this ONE peaker is worth ALONE 2.5x the current market cap.