Member Info for Malik-

...And for free today still.

Trading at 4.5x resource valuation discount to EMH (assuming minority buyout). Little sense in this, since it’s effectively the same resource on the German side of the border - and with M&A potential.
Overdone sell-off and great entry point

*USD20m
On £20m it’s more like £900m valuation...

It does not look expensive whatsoever.
Plugpower trades at 80x expected sales.
We literally just got the ABB agreement in December.
With Extreme E, as well as this agreement I really can’t see £20m of sales per year as something too optimistic - on the contrary. Apply half the multiple of Plugpower and add the current sales and you get to a valuation for AFC of c£700m.

That magic number I keep writing.
Stock is CHEAP comparatively.

Just bought another 12k. Too cheap here

Market is not waking up to anything. If it had we would be trading at £1bn cap today, as you say.
You have a sector rotation out of great performers into value plays and underperformers.
Once rates start re ticking down - which they will as the Central Banks won’t let those soar when govts still need to issue plenty of debt.
Well at that point which i expect to come anytime now, money will very quickly flow back into the space. The outlook for hydrogen this year is great, and for AFC even better as we are about to raise market share significantly.

We are a less than £400m mcap.
In a global market in the trillion $. I actually think it’s very likely indeed that energy cos enter this industry (as well as lithium by the way). They have loads of capital to deploy and massive balance sheets.
This is a no brainer buy.

Thanks but I beg to disagree.
The EU wouldn’t be putting drawing a HALF A TRILLION EURO plan for this. The EU Green Deal has opened the door to monstrous investments in the field - and has changed the fortunes of hydrogen.
Moreover, the key utilities have just announced they are working together and pledging to make hydrogen fully economic by 2030.

We are now within about 15% of the share p when the ABB agreement was announced. Yet, that announcement was a game changer for the company. What has happened since aside from market based long term interest rates rising (and slightly in the grand scheme of things)? Is hydrogen no longer the fuel of the future? We have experienced a steeper derating than peers yet our market cap is a fraction of theirs and we are just around the corner from the start of Extreme E - probably THE greatest marketing campaign any such company could have. A sector rotation is not killing the story at all, it just gives this an even better entry point. This is worth no less than £700m, based on conservative assumptions of what ABB agreement could open up in terms of orders. This stock is SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED.

How can this be trading at 30% discount to EMH, and at close to 1/3 of the valuation of Piedmont?!
And still be struggling to re-rate from a technically massively oversold level...

Some have been arguing that Hut8 is the cheapest miner. I disagree, and believe ARB remains the cheapest, when factoring in profitability.
ARB trades on a CHEAP and notably lower 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, once the Texas facility is operational.
Plenty of upside left relative to peers.

With Copper p nr $9000/t my estimates of P&L for ‘21:

*Revs: $58m - mid point pdction guidance, 50% hedged at $7700/t, 50% at spot
*Cash costs: $34m, $90/t mined
*Op cash margin: $24m

=> BIG ~40% cashflow yield. Cheap

At 28p you get a ‘multi million’ UK HYDROGEN opportunity for FREE - with stock only pricing a fairer value for the legacy biz (ex synergies with H2Green), at a peer group 9x EBITDA.
Stock trading at book.

Great entry point: huge upside potential and limited downside

For those who questioned the synergies between Getech and Hydrogen. Read this press release below from a 1Sptatial - a £35m company that does tech/geospatial activities not too different to Getech.
Oh and by the way 1Spatial tardes on 9x EBITDA.
Confirms what I was saying. Below 28p the Hydrogen opportunity in Getech is priced at ZERO (Applying that multiple to our legacy buiness; we get to £10m. So hydrogen discounted at nil)
CHEAP

https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=3873936&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-zgp&v=

Exactly.
And add to your argument that 1) Zinnwald have the intention to buy the remaining 50% share in the asset, currently held by an insolvent party. Zinnwald have first right of refusal.
Meanwhile, EMH’ shareholding in its Cinovec asset will remain at 49%...
2) There are clear synergies between both assets - being part of the SAME Cinovec deposit - one on German side, other Czech. This makes Zinnwald asset a clear M&A target by EMH. 1 processing plant instead of two -> Capex savings and so, higher IRR on combined entity.
3)And so there is NO justification as to why Zinnwald trades as such huge discount to EMH. The more it does, the more accretive a takeout is for EMH... Zinnwald share price HAS to rise.
4)Matching the multiples between Zinnwald and EMH, assuming we move to 100% ownership, takes us to c60p.
5) And this is before taking into account a tightening in the lithium market - expected this year.
This is a NO BRAINER

Forget the nickel, if Burwell materialises we could see a market cap 10-20x that of today.
The project has the distinct advantage of being of larger capacity than most UK storage projects in the pipeline. And storage assets have been experiencing supernormal profits as of late - so to me, successful financing is a real possibility.
Align Research is totally missing this

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/941151?__twitter_impression=true

Listen to the video of CEO posted today.
He doesn’t want to comment on Nasdaq listing.
No willingness to comment = not denying = likely happening

Exactly Shareaction.
Remember my calculation of the other day: at 28p, the hydrogen opportunity is effectively valued at ZERO. No brainer entry therefore.
Normalised EBITDA multiple of legacy business of 9x means that legacy business alone is worth c£10m...

A Nasdaq listing would be THE key catalyst. Looks increasingly likely to me...
This could propel the stock up by c3x at current Bitcoin p, closing the valuation gap with top US miners.
At 390p, the stock would be valued 25x PE, and still offer a decent 4% cashflow yield.