Member Info for Malik-

Of course you can!
Why do you think share prices move during capital markets days?! Look at large caps?
You think private investors move the shares?!

You don’t know what you are talking about.
Depends who you are in a fund, and which fund.
Are you the analyst who reports to the fund manager? Then yes you are right. Analyst does work and presents his idea to FM.
Are you the FM himself? You can press the button even during the presentation!
This is a HUGE deal.

Nonesense.
I have worked in the industry for years.
And yes these roadshows are a huge deal, and even more so at a bulge bracket investment bank.
Theee are ESG specialists and they very well know how to value a growth stage company.

Expect ESG funds to put in money here after GS conference.
The Caliber of clients they have vs say Panmure Gordon or WHIreland is simply incomparable.

In other words.
What’s the downside? hardly any.
Upside? Limitless.
NO BRAINER

AFC is my biggest holding and I loaded up just before Extreme E at around 45-50p.
This is THE stock to own this year.

Think of 1 number.
$25bn. That’s the addressable market JUST of diesel
Generators - so omitting the enormous potential from maritime.
Say AFC gets a mere 1.5% of that market- that’s $375m of revenues per year. ally say 5x multiple=> USD 2bn valuation = £1.4bn mcap

Stock TOO CHEAP

Enormous upside potential on UK hydrogen infrastructure effectively valued at ZERO in shares (deduct cash and apply pre-covid & peer EBITDA multiples on legacy non hydro biz).
GREAT risk/reward profile

*No one expected AFC to post

Yes the whole hydrogen sector has been smashed.
But what’s changed recently even from global macro perspective? Interest rates have actually been declining not rising...
all hydrogen plays are technically oversold and will have to bounce soon.
It’s been consensual to short tech and whatever did well last year - again with one caveat that the main reason for shorting - ie surging rates is no longer working....

AFC is not valued at 2bn mcap. Milne expected AFC to post big revenues or be profitable this year.
This was the year to move to a next level. It’s a year of transition. There were only two days of racing from the time of Capital Markets Day and last Extreme E event.
Let’s see where the next 5 months take us ;). Surprise is only skewed to UPSIDE.

Price reaction ridiculous.
We are not all that far from the price before the ABB partnership announcement again?! Relative to other hydrogen plays, this stock is seriously cheap: it’s a niche and more targeted player - trading at 1/5-1/6th mcaps of others.
Since the ABB agreement in Dec, we have had 1) ABB taking a stake in the company at 65p (25% above current share p!), 2) Strategic agreement with Mace Group (uk construction group for switch away from diesel generators into hydrogen) 3) MoU with Saudi Altaaqa (to complement diesel power modules with hydrogen, in Saudi&MidEast), 4) Extreme E having its first 2
Day race; with races to continue til Oct so with plenty of scope
for more promotion and partnerships!
BUY!!!

Agree. And I believe it will be absolutely the case.

Well CEZ could very well buy EMH and consolidate its neighbour ZNWD, sure.
Makes sense.
Or Alternatively, VW... they talked integrating supply chains.

EMH
They are the natural buyer.
You like it/ believe it or not. I have argued with people on this chat before about it.
I own both shares and a consolidation WILL happen, in my view.
To create the largest Lithium resource in Europe by far and its a hugely value accretive deal. And Europe would much prefer having an Aussie holding a key lithium resource in Europe than China.
In any case, ZNWD asset is a takeover target.

* a minority holder

Ganfeng will buy BCN.
Ganfeng will thus also buy BCN’s 44% stake in ZNWD.
Why will Ganfeng want to be a majority holder in Zinnwald?
Either fill takeout or sale of stake.

No logic for Ganfeng to hold minority stake in ZNWD.
So my suspicion: 1) they buy ZNWD.
2) They sell the stake to EMH, who then do a takeover bid on ZNWD.

I calculate a takeover would be 45% value accretive to EMH (as ZNWD trades on v low multiples) and that’s before synergies ! And there would be plenty of synergies.
The space is getting hot.

I hold both EMH and ZNWD.

Well rns implied multiple at BCN takeout p of 65; is equivalent to 6x the resource multiple ZNWD currently trades at, assuming we buyout out the solarworld minority. 70-80p blue sky for ZNWD

(And that’s for a clay asset in lower jurisdiction Mexico)

The implied multiple at BCN takeout p of 65; is equivalent to 6x the resource multiple ZNWD currently trades at, assuming we buyout out the solarworld minority.
Consistent with my bliss sky target of 70-80p for ZNWD.