Member Info for Malik-

*for

It means these are my expectations, about how the stock will react and positioning into the stock.
It evidently matters how other stocks trade. Growth stocks move before revenues crystallise - they move on expectations of market share grab.
And given the enormous promotion ExtremeE provides, expectations baked in at the current share price are overly cautious in my view; dor a stark undervaluation vs peers. Market will catch up - and in my view, will begin to do so into this next ExtremeE event.

I am indeed targeting a return of the share p to the 70s in the next 10 days.

People here are generally sceptical about this eventuality.
I respectfully disagree. As you know, I own both EMH and ZNWD, and a consolidation of the resources is actually core to my bull case on both stocks. I see strong m EU political backing for such project to create the largest EU lithium resource in the continent, I see both companies’ shareholders winning. At today’s EMH price, this optionality comes for FREE.
I reiterate my calculations.
Were EMH to buy Zinnwald/its asset - this would be immediately value accretive to EMH shareholders - and not marginally so - likely 50%-100% depending on price paid.
And this does not even factor in ANY synergies in my calculations. And there would be substantial amounts of synergies, in my view - think additional volumes taken on vs capex savings from infrastructure, think subsequent project IRR uplift.
This estimate range is not wishful thinking, it’s simple maths. When an acquirer buys a target, where the target trades at 3-4x discount to the acquirer its immediate accretive. Reason? People will then value the combined entity at acquirer’s multiple.
EMH shareholders should instead be salivating about such potential upside optionality, in addition to the usual EMH bull thesis (stock cheap, possibility to double output, location etc).

(Ps sorry if this same post appears on the system later, look like LSE been having problems)

*reason

Disagree of course.
The bounce in share p last time was rational. What’s happened since is irrational and is solely market driven - inflation fears....
It omits the fact that the stock trades at a significant discount to peers when taking into account what revenue potential we should expect this year and next. As I pointed out previously; ITM was trading at £700m mcap one year ago when it had £3m of sales - yet since, global hydrogen developments have considerably improved (EU backing of hydrogen, Biden win etc). We are heading to at least the same sales figure this year, as ITM did then=> and so to me there is no ready why we should not be valued at >£700m mcap.
Furthermore, we are trading now 1) 15% below where ABB bought a stake, 2) 15% below the share p of when we obtained the MoU with Saudi’s Altaaqa. 3) 4% below recent directors buys.

Prior to the last ExtremeE weekend, the stock started to soar 1 week before the event.
I expect a repeat this time around => so buy ahead of this Friday!

Regulatory hurdles in Europe with Ganfeng. Of course. Which is why I own both EMH and ZNWD. My base case is BCN sells to EMH.
And I love the prospect as EMH shareholder. It’s hugely value accretive to EMH as per my other post.

We can agree to disagree.
But doesn’t change end game.
Ganfeng won’t want a minority in project.
So either they buy ZNWD or sell ZNWD to EMH at great profit: Either way therefore ZNWD share p. is going up (and significantly) as facts are all increasingly pointing to M&A becoming a reality.
BUY ZNWD

As you know, I own both EMH and ZNWD, and a consolidation of the resources is core to my bull case on both stocks. I see EU political backing for such project to create the largest EU lithium resource in the continent, I see both companies’ shareholders winning. At today’s EMH price, this optionality comes for FREE.
I reiterate my calculations.
Were EMH to buy Zinnwald/its asset - this would be immediately value accretive to EMH shareholders - and not marginally so - likely 50%-100% depending on price paid.
And this does not even factor in ANY synergies in my calculations. And there would be substantial amounts of synergies, in my view - think additional volumes taken on vs capex savings from infrastructure, think subsequent project IRR uplift.
This estimate range is not wishful thinking, it’s simple maths. When an acquirer buys a target, where the target trades at 3-4x discount to the acquirer its immediate accretive. Reason? People will then value the combined entity at acquirer’s multiple.
EMH shareholders should instead be salivating about such potential upside optionality, in addition to the usual EMH bull thesis (stock cheap, possibility to double output, location etc).

1) Ganfeng would have not bid for Bacanora if they just wanted Sonora.
They would have bid for Sonora. Means they are keen on getting hands on ZNWD stake.
2) why would Ganfeng buy Bac to then sell ZnWD? Simply because they are effectively underpaying for Bac and getting ZNWD for free. Ganfeng are smart and could make a juicy capital gain by selling the stake for 3x what’s its trading at currently in the market - and then getting it for free.

People on this board are sceptical about this eventuality.
They are missing the point in my view.
As you know, I own both EMH and ZNWD, and a consolidation of the resources is core to my bull case on both stocks. I see EU political backing for such project to create the largest EU lithium resource in the continent, I see both companies’ shareholders winning. At today’s EMH price, this optionality comes for FREE.
I reiterate my calculations.
Were EMH to buy Zinnwald/its asset - this would be immediately value accretive to EMH shareholders - and not marginally so - likely 50%-100% depending on price paid.
And this does not even factor in ANY synergies in my calculations. And there would be substantial amounts of synergies, in my view - think additional volumes taken on vs capex savings from infrastructure, think subsequent project IRR uplift.
This estimate range is not wishful thinking, it’s simple maths. When an acquirer buys a target, where the target trades at 3-4x discount to the acquirer its immediate accretive. Reason? People will then value the combined entity at acquirer’s multiple.
EMH shareholders should instead be salivating about such potential upside optionality, in addition to the usual EMH bull thesis (stock cheap, possibility to double output, location etc).

This is precisely the type of argument retail money has and which makes the Aim market so inefficient and dysfunctional.. yet allows for big gains for those who can make connections.. Instead, retail waits for news, stock doubles at open and everyone buys in on spike - and missed the boat just based on not believing til they read the press release.
Point is - 1) Ganfeng is buying 44% of ZNWD. 2) Ganfeng won’t want a minority holding so a) they buy the whole lot or b) they sell to EMH.
In the meantime, you have the Mayor of the two which hosts EMH deposit telling you the assets will consolidate.
So either way - something will happen to ZNWD- you don’t need to be a genius to work that out,
4) AND YET, the stock is totally oblivious to this; pricing in ZERO M&A, and what’s more an unreasonably LOW chance this asset ever sees the light of day alone. And yet we are next door neighbour to EMH.
This has 6x upside; and it will DOUBLE the day they announce they buyout Solarworld stake.
Enjoy your scepticism ;)

Incredibly muted performance today compared to how signifant this news is, particularly taken in conjunction with recent announcement of Bacanora takeover.
This stock should already have doubled if it were not for this totally inefficient joke of Aim market.

(As you see I own both stocks, and adding the same analysis for EMH for your reference)

Some basic maths:
Backing out, Ganfeng offered to pay for BCN’s Sonora asset a valuation equivalent to 70% of Sonora NPV. ZNWD is currently trading on 11% of NPV of its flagship lithium asset; assuming the highly likely scenario it buys out the solarworld minorities.
In other words, a fair M&A valuation for ZNWD is 6.4x higher than current share p or 88p.
MARKET WAKE UP!!!

EMH is currently trading at 28% of NPV adjusting published NPV for higher tin prices vs PFS.In other words, price paid for BCN is 2.5x higher than were we currently trade at.
OVERDONE correction.

Backing out, Ganfeng offered to pay for BCN’s Sonora asset a valuation equivalent to 70% of Sonora NPV.

EMH is currently trading at 28% of NPV adjusting published NPV for higher tin prices vs PFS.
In other words, price paid for BCN is 2.5x higher than were we currently trade at.
OVERDONE correction.

Horrid.
I kept my shares. Infinity is trading at cash at 0.055. So
After crash downside is very limited?
I do think it remains a too big to fail of an asset and Canaveral deposit nearby is just not economic. Playing the appeal.

Stock should be FLYING.

People wake up. This is HUGE news.

In contrast to recent comments by mayor of Dubi, EMH CEO just reiterated pdction possible by end 2023. POSITIVE.
““We have a lot of confidence that it will eventually be funded," says Coughlan. He cites the many battery factories that are currently being built across Europe as the reason for his optimism. Production could possibly start as early as the end of 2023, he says: “That’s a good time”.”

Extract from German news article.

https://background.tagesspiegel.de/mobilitaet/lithium-kurze-lieferwege-kleiner-co2-rucksack