Member Info for Malik-

Forget the noise. Focus on the above.

Nonesense panic selling again.
We are back to levels very close to when ABB partnership was first announced.
We are now trading at: 1) 23% below where ABB bought a stake recently, 2) 11% below last directors buy, 3) at levels PRE-Extreme E, 4) below levels of announcement of MoUs with Altaaqa in Saudi &Mace group in UK.
Inflation or not fact is this is a £370m market cap company vs Ceres and ITM at £1.8bn => so 5x smaller; and Plugpower at £8bn => >20x smaller.
Plugpower after having dropping to more than a third of peak still trades 20x this year sale and 5x 3y forward sales.
Backing out from these multiples, in other words the market is discounting is the shares right now, that AFC revenues wil be of around £30m per year in time.
What’s the Target market of diesel generators alone? £20bn.
So the market is implicitly pricing we get a MERE 0.15% market share of that target market in time! This is simply RIDICULOUS. They will get at least 1.5%=> So shares have 10x upside from here without even accounting for other key markets like maritime.

BOMBED OUT VALUATIONS, don’t let panic blur the story and fundamentals . BUY BUY BUY

This is NOT a Spac to get beaten down like one.
inflation or not -
This stock is already trading on BOMBED OUT valuations, as per above and NPV calcs apply an 8% cost of capital which already factors in therefore rates well above they are today.

Stock now trading at close to HALF the $/t LCE multiple valuation paid by Ganfeng a few days ago for BCN - and this isn’t Mexico nor clay!

Moreover, we now trade at c25% of NPV, taking into account tin p re-rate - for the largest hard rock and most likely lithium asset in EU.

OVERDONE - BUY

Back at ridiculous levels.
Stock no longer pricing ANY belief in Texas facility EVER happening - since trading on 2021 PE of 9x and 9% cashflow yield; and cash+fin assets near 30% of mcap
Once Texas operational, trades on bargain 1.7x EBITDA and 20/30% cashflow yield

Ps: you don’t just look at number of shares, since these rights issues were not solely for working capital needs. They made acquisitions.
So your reasoning is inaccurate

It’s trading at book value and pre covid it traded at 6x book.
It’s a NO BRAINER buy, as covid reopening play.
NFT managed to raise all that cash, and that a what the market was willing to price it at.

There is a BIG difference with INF.
That Galp is partially owned by Spanish govt! Makes the likelihood of project going ahead significantly higher.

Ganfeng’s announced takeover of BCN was a low ball offer thoug it still valued Sonora at c60% of NPV8%. NPV8% is actually a low cost of capital in my view for Mexico and so, the that percentage based on 10% of NPV is probably at c80%.

Our Portugal asset is priced at c30% of NPV and so, which means we have AT LEAST 2x upside from here, just on the lithium asset.
SAV’s technicals are also busted => NO BRAINER BUY here

*apply

$25bn. That’s the addressable market JUST of diesel
Generators - so omitting the enormous potential from maritime.
Say AFC gets a mere 1.5% of that market- that’s $375m of revenues per year. ally say 5x multiple=> USD 2bn valuation = £1.4bn mcap

Stock TOO CHEAP.
Stock now 1)11% below price ABB took a stake at
2) Near directors’ buys last week
3) Expect RERATE short term with Extreme E restarting in 2.5 weeks!
BUY

At end of day Ganfeng are very smart.
They are underpaying for BCN - its Sonora asset and one could argue are pretty much getting ZNWD stake for free.
What they do now is indeed very relevant to us.
Either 1) they sell the stake to someone and make a nice capital
gain (we are naturally buyer and I would be very excited about it on value accretion) or 2) more likely, they buyout ZNWD. And we have Ganfeng as our next door neighbour. Then what does Ganfeng do? Hm...
They start eying us.
Then it becomes a political game.
I see EMH + znwd being bought out within 1-1.5y - which is why I own both stocks. You can decide who the buyer of the consolidated entities would be.

Erris is former name of Zinnwald company.
The point is not who has bigger resource. The argument this is irrelevant to EMH and discussed on other boards is missing the point.
The point is: there is bound to be M&A with our next door neighbour ZNWD.
And this is very relevant to us. As both EMH and ZNWD consolidated soil
Make the EU biggest lithium resource AND improve economics of whole thing as you add tonnes with very limited additional capex and improve IRR.
Why? Because if it’s Ganfeng who buys it - the multiple paid is very relevant.
2) of Ganfeng buys it - Ganfeng May well then bid for EMH after and consolidate both
3) Or EU disapproves of this and EMH potentially is merged/takes over ZNWD and potentially an EU entity eg CEZ or VW takes over the whole thing.

In any case I said it many times a deal by EMH would be immediately 50% value accretive to EMH shareholders before accounting for any synergies!

(And that article doesn’t say anything other than a summary of the BCN press release and the past raising of BCN to which Ganfen had subscribed)

Ganfeng already owned 50% of Mexican Sonora asset.
They also owned 29% of BCN.
If you weren’t interested in ZNWD, you d buy the remaking share of the Sonora not make an offer on BCN company.

Correct -
BCN own 44% of Zinnwald company.
Zinnwald company owns 50% of Deutsche Lithium

Miners share p at early Feb levels yet Bitcoin c20% higher since. They shd be >40% higher.
General tech self off and concerns over chip shortage effectively wiped a lot of belief in their expansion plans.
On ARB, mkt just not buying Texas happening=>surprise to UPSIDE

Solarworld (co
in administration) owns the remaining 50% in ZNWD asset.
ZNWD has first right of refusal on asset.
ZNWD has said they want to fully own the asset.
So it’s a question of when not IF.

There is NO BURDEN when you buy an entity which trades at c4x discount to you. What needs to happen first, is ZNWD needs to buy the solarworld minority.
It’s an IMMEDIATELY 50% value accretive deal to EMH shareholders and that’s before synergies.

Ganfeng decided to buy BCN.
They didn’t decide to just buy the Mexican asset. Why?
Because they get ZNWD effectively for free.
They get a stake in an asset in Europe.
My view is simple, they want ZNWD fully. They may have bigger plans in mind - Buy EMH and consolidate both assets.
The key question is does Europe allow this?
Unlikely.
So, end game will be the stake sale to EMH who then launch a takeover of ZNWD and create THE largest EU lithium asset, in a deal highly value accretive to EMH shareholders. Potentially, CEZ buys the combined entity.
ZNWD is a no brainer. EMH a no brainer too.
Space is getting HOT