Member Info for Malik-

Well spotted. Thanks.

Getech is the biggest No brainer on the hydrogen space, and probably amongst the best investments accross the board.
Enormous upside potential for hydrogen, currently discounted at close to zero by the market...

Past examples point to 5y contracts with option to extend for further 5y.
Pricing mechanism not clear, but I believe significant portion fixed p.

Been telling you all week to buy ahead of today.

Read my posts

1 week to Extreme E.
Enjoy the ride up ;)

Plug in whatever you want. These are my assumptions.
You get the logic. To goal seek the current market cap you d be assuming £20m sales in 3y time. That’s 0.1% market share of diesel generator market.
I let you decide if that’s reasonable...

Plupower currently has $15bn mcap. They expect sales of c$450m this year => Trades on 33x sales.
AFC valuation range:
*LOW case: say very conservatively sales of £30m in 3 y time. That’s 0.15% market share of diesel generator market and NOTHING else.
33*30m= USD1bn valuation in 3y. Discount that back to 2021 at 8%: USD800m => £600m
*BLUE SKY: say £300m in 3y time. That’s 1.5% market share of diesel generator market and nothing else/more.
USD 10bn valuation in 3y. Discount that back to 2021 at 8%: USD 8bn => £6bn.

Say 90% chance of a) and 10% chance of b).
Weighted average valuation/price target: £1.15bn
2.8x UPSIDE.

c1 week til ExtremeE catalyst. Tic toc...

In a Proactive interview today, EMH CEO said he expected continued M&A in lithium space.
Obviously the follows on from Ganfeng/BCN news.
He’s not specifically talking of his company but of the sector in general.
You know my view regarding ZNWD... it’s the most likely target in Europe currently.

1 day to buy...

Don’t be deluded.
The cheaper it gets the more likely a takeover candidate it becomes.

ABB natural buyer of AFC.
They bought their stake at 65p.
How do they feel about valuations now that we are at 55?

RMH confirmed this morning that tests shown that it is successfully converting Carbonate to Hydroxide.
This is positive for Zinnwald - which shares the same Cinovec deposit on German side.
We know Zinnwald is also working on demonstrating it can produce Hydroxide...
BUY ZNWD - clear M&A target with M&A currently priced by market in shares at zero!

With Hydroxide prices rising to USD13.3k (vs PFS at 12k); and factoring in the substantially higher tin prices since too; one should adjust up the published PFS NPV by c20-30% to USD 1.33-1.44bn.

We are therefore trading at 23%-25% of NPV.
For reference, Ganfeng is offering to buy Bacanora at 70% NPV, for a clay asset in riskier jurisdiction (Mexico).
That’s 3x upside for EMH from here.

Hydroxide at $13.3k

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1394670180966490114?s=20

Add c20% to published NPV to factor in spot tin and hydroxide p.

Two days to buy...

Hydrogen companies trade at c10x sales.
So backing out: the share price is currently discounting revenues opportunity from hydrogen for Getech of between 0 to £300k per year .
This is despite having m an MoU with one of biggest gas networks in UK, and Element 2 deal.
NO BRAINER. 10x upside is very plausible

Yes you prefer to decline to double your money.
Smart

Let’s do some maths.
Zinnwald’s trades at around half the $/t LCE (expected pdction); and 1/4 were solarworld minorities bought out - which is what Zinnwald aims to do. I expect very low p paid for this since this latter is in administration.
Zinnwald has £27m mcap. Today.
Assuming minority buyout:
If you say EMH does full capital increase to fund this: (23% of mcap).
You get in exchange an asset which the market will then value at the combined entity level at EMH multiple - so 4x the price paid. So value creation: 27*4 -27 = 81m.
That’s 70% on EMH share p. Then take off dilution = c+50% on EMH share p.
Then add synergies. I let you form your view on this. Can potentially be double that, on my numbers.

I reiterate what I posted a few days ago on valuation:

Plugpower after having dropped to more than a third of peak still trades 20x this year sale and 5x 3y forward sales.
Applying those multiples, the market is discounting in the shares right now, that AFC revenues wil be of around £30m per year in time.
What’s the Target market of diesel generators alone? £20bn.
So the market is implicitly pricing we get a MERE 0.15% market share of that target market in time! This is simply RIDICULOUS. They will get at least 1.5%=> So shares have 10x upside from here without even accounting for other key markets like maritime.