Member Info for LWHL

Still nervous on the silver price, from a chart perspective. Gold seems to be holding a channel quite well right now, but I am not ruling out a breakdown in that either. Short term, naturally.

The wider markets feel like they want to puke (although it could just be a normal and healthy correction, of course).

I have been deploying some of my 'war chest' on a few names during this rising VIX and DXY period.

Not FRES or GOLD so far, although I have a fair slug of both, so if they moon, I will not complain!

Might wait for ex-div with NEM now; if the markets do defecate the bed, then PM's will not be spared either, based on history. GLA.

Historically, I would agree with you. But never before has a government got such a Parliamentary majority with so low a vote count.

A PM hated, almost from the get go. And certainly becoming more reviled by the day (and new negative revelation).

I am not betting on it, but I will retain that hope. GLA.

More likely a fund reducing, or a short increasing, than a leak, I would hope.

Either way, I have not been impressed with the BOD since that last bombshell RNS. Which I commented on at the time.

I have continued to watch this one, but not been tempted to even take a punt while the radio silence prevails.

Am I right in thinking that the next earnings update is at some point in late January?

I wonder if the market might not hear anything else until then.

I expected something long before now, so I guess it would not come as that much of a surprise. GLA.

Arrogance is fine. It is certainly a common character trait of most CEO's and other senior management people in the business world.

However, hubris is another matter. And it is a trait that, in the business world, more often than not, sooner or later, causes problems.

I am not ruling out a positive review. I certainly hope for holders (and for me, so that I can seriously consider returning this to the investment basket once again) that it is so.

I am however ruling out some backdated client cash hitting the WG coffers, in the event the speculation here over potential historic VAT stuff is indeed accurate.

They need to be competitive in tender processes, so I also cannot see how they could claw back the aforementioned and alleged shortfall in relation to the above.

Anyway, fun to speculate while we wait for the facts to surface. GLA.

Lol. Can you imagine going to a bunch of current, as well as perhaps a few ex-clients, and telling them that actually, you missed a few quid off their invoices in the past....so would they kindly pay up the new outstanding balance within 30 days.

Maybe as a goodwill gesture, you could tell them that you are only going to add a 3% interest charge on top for the late payment :)

If it is 'simply' that, then this is not an inconsequential matter, IMO.

Are there any current/retired VAT professionals on this chat board? It would be interesting to get their thoughts on this topic.

None of which alters the fact that buying TTG, even at the last offer price, let alone a higher price, would significantly increase the risk profile of this name.

If NR offers to fund the entire acquisition from his own pocket, at a fixed interest rate of 2% or lower, then I would change my opinion of the potential venture in question.

But that is obviously not going to happen. And hopefully therefore, nor will the continued pursuit of TTG at this time.

This is what happens when you have too much government/state interference.

I completely agree with you though. I made my own thoughts clear on what I think of people who make such claims, years after the event. And the ambulance-chasing legal reps that feed these types of negative frenzies.

What an entirely unnecessary mess. And ultimately, IMO, it will be the ordinary customers who pay the price. It was ever thus. GLA.

If NR increases his offer for TTG, then I think the SP will print 250's.

The debt burden will simply be too great. I strongly believe that.

There have been excellent outfits that made bad acquisitions and ended up going bust, or languishing for years and years while they battled to integrate a challenging business.

If they had a significant cash pile and could afford to buy TTG without it touching the sides, a la AAPL or BRK, then fine. The risk/reward proposition would be comfortable.

They do not, and just because NR himself is fabulously wealthy, does not protect shareholders.

People do not retain significant family wealth by taking big risks with their own money, quite frankly.

Even if TTG does not have some underlying issues that have yet to surface, to me, it just does not feel like the timing is right.

Absolutely, Stupmy. As I said on a different chat board at some point, no such thing as a free lunch. Special clients of firms are unlikely to get exactly the same material as that which is published on 'freeview'. Which is fair enough really.

RickEngland: I have known a few people in professional services, and more generally senior people in a number of global entities over the years.

Apart from a short period (of M&A hysteria) pre-GFC, quality names do not take punts on scenarios where you have a cloud like this audit health check overhang.

Assuming it gets the green light, and there are no symptoms of wider business issues/contagion, then I think the chances of a bid will increase exponentially very shortly afterwards.

As to whether the BOD gives it any airtime (TTG etc, etc) remains to be seen, but IMO no chance of any such prospect prior to then.

Either way, the big shareholders here must be starting to lose patience with the BOD. And especially the CEO.

But perhaps not, who knows? Apart from Franklin, no other TR-1's of late. GLA.

I agree that names like this one should weather the storm, although hopefully the current government collapses before they get to do a full term's worth of damage. Especially to our farmland.

It is why I also like DG across the Pond, although I have recently initiated a small position in that name already.

Apparently the US stock market has seen the largest inflow of foreign capital on record. I certainly have a higher percentage of my own p/f in US stocks than I ever have previously.

I believe that at some point, quality UK stocks will come back into favour, but for the time being, it is probably going to be a matter of battening down the hatches and pound cost averaging into those stocks that you think will handle the storms ahead. GLA.

Indeed. Should have stuck with accurate and truthful CV content in the first place, lol.

Sure, but in many cases of broker downgrades or upgrades that I have seen, they appear to be no more than applying numbers that fit the existing trend.

My favourite ones are those that come out a few days, or even a single day, before scheduled market updates.

PARA was perhaps my all time giggle (so far) for this scenario. Last year I think it was.

Had some very enjoyable trades in that one over a few years. What appears to have been going on in that one might make a film one day! Been out of it for a while though and only pass the odd glance at it now. Zero plans to ever get back into it, although it will always be one I hold with fondness, for obvious reasons.

Anyway, I continue to watch this one with interest, but as I am no clearer in my own mind as to what I think might be a good entry point (or a potentially realistic downside scenario), I shall in the meantime continue to collect splinters from this uncomfortable fence :) GLA.

I am not sure if broker ratings have become more clownish in recent times, or if they have always been so.

I have no idea what a fair price for this one is, given the current issues and uncertainties, but in general terms, how often do you see a broker give downgrades when a share is flying high, irrespective of any known fundamentals at that given time? Almost never.

Long after the horse has bolted, in either direction, is when the upgrades or downgrades are printed. They almost always just look like trend chasers IMO.

I think they are best treated with extreme caution and most of the time, as a contrary indicator for what one should actually do with X stock at that time.

Had more than my fair share of soakings too. The ones in the tax wrappers are of course the most painful.

Something the socialists do not understand when they bleat on about ISA's and the like being 'tax avoidance'...no they are not! Gains are tax free, but losses are not tax deductible, so they are not 'stealing' from the government.

And as 'benefits' go, not even that special. Especially when you think about the high tax and high crime metrics that are the baggage of eligibility.

Anyway, I hope you make good those losses before too long, mate.

I was in the middle of researching some historic material on that name, to offer a similar rebuttal.

Good work JG68. You have saved me some time :) GLA.

That is exactly the range that would trigger an initial purchase from me. Then more in the 270's.

Subject to the obvious caveats and none of which might come to pass in the first place.

Not sure I would risk a short here, though (theoretically, as I am a long only trader/investor). Because it could be on the radar of a predator around this price IMO. GLA.

Exactly. And the reality is, most of the time, if you want to make good profits, you have to buy when it feels wrong to do so. When a stock is disliked, or even hated.

The great Peter Lynch alludes to this, as do a number of other A-list traders and investors.

Not advice here, or anywhere else, to buy or sell, but as a general principle, one that IMO is pretty much spot on.

Like others (including me) have suggested, it is the fear of them going higher in the pursuit of TTG, which is the cause of this malaise and undoing (hopefully temporarily) the positive update. Hey ho.