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I agree that a termination fee of some sort would have been wise. Especially given the wasted costs the last time around when Sid walked. And presumably mounting costs again this time from the same exercise. Try not to think about all the RNS costs on a daily basis either, lol.

Anyway, see what today brings in terms of SP action.

Not something to trouble those who plan to be long-termers here, although how any of you can commit to such a strategy, come what may, in these circumstances, is not something that I can relate to. Hopefully we all make a profit here, regardless. GLA.

It depends on what the alternative is surely?

I have no doubt that many shareholders would be unhappy with 80p. But would they rather inject more cash here, under the current leadership, or cut their losses and move on?

Or see more of the silverware sold off to pay down debt, in the hope that the BOD can fix things going forward, where they demonstrably have failed to do so thus far?

I think it is highly, highly, unlikely that Sid know anything more about the Deloitte report than any of us here do.

The consequences of a leak coming from them to anyone, would potentially be far greater than any benefit that they might get from such an (illegal) act, by quite some multiples. For goodness sake.

But a three bagger, or more, from a Sid offer, is IMO equally far fetched.

I still believe that a refi deal is the odds-on favourite here. As do many of the shorts, IMO.

I still feel that a sub 60p offer is more likely to be in the right ball park, than 140p/160p/200p etc.

But I do like the risk/reward metrics for a sub 40p punt, and if I am wrong about the upside potential, then happy days.

As I said a while ago, a refi deal, especially with the current BOD in seat, would for me be a hard red line. GLA.

It is not the maximum. A further extension can, and might, be granted.

Although I would imagine most holders would rather it be concluded, one way or the other, by then at the outset.

Anyway, against my better judgement, I put some of the profits that I made elsewhere today into this one again in the 38's.

Looking for an 8-10% return. No sell order in the pipes at the time of print, so might end up eating a meaty loss on this latest punt, or might get lucky, and have the chance to make more than I might deserve, if a positive RNS lands at some point in the days ahead. GLA.

Fair enough, but as long as they are cancelled, rather than kept in treasury.

I do not think it would be wise to bank on cheap debt again, for the foreseeable, so better to be cautious - and clear the debt fully, IMO. Then future credit lines, if needed for whatever reason, will likely be on excellent terms regardless.

Anyway, hopefully the Spring update will not add further headwinds to British business. GLA.

Based on the charts, I think that might be a risky bet, but your money to play with.

Worst case scenario, you eat another loss here, but the 'government' will probably steal any profits you make anyway, so perhaps it is a risk-free scenario? Lol. GLA.

I took a few more today. Just in case the commie-leaning branch of the uniparty does not completely blow the house down on Wednesday. GLA.

In this case, I doubt it. Some posters were suggesting similar reasons to be confident, when they had a more impressive roster of II holders than now. As I said in a previous post.

The question is: will this new band of brothers be the happy few, or will they end up eating significant losses, as all previous brothers have (and sisters, for you of the politically correct ilk)...

Such a strange-looking chart. I cannot make head nor tail of it.

Those ugly, big single red candles, but on spikes to the upside.

I have added a few more, nevertheless. GLA.

Pay the debt off entirely. Then, if we are still undervalued at that point, maybe buy backs.

The current dividend is perfectly satisfactory, and I would rather we kept a sizeable war chest of cash on the balance sheet, rather than increase the dividend, or do BB's, which tend to benefit the BOD, more than ordinary shareholders (artificial boost to EPS, which almost always has a positive impact on their remuneration, for example). Oh, and cancelled, not kept in treasury.

And currently in auction :)

I agree. Anything else would be unforgivable.

Anyway, we are in a tightening channel right now. The bottom is around 301p (I think?), the top, around 323p-ish.

Apart from the obvious ones (50 and 200 DMA's), we also might have some additional resistance around 332p-ish, based on another trend line I see. Although I have not plotted these with laser accuracy, hence my 'ish' caveats.

All things considered though, I do think that a solid update, with sufficiently bullish forward guidance, will see the SP reclaim the 50 DMA at least.

Not looking further ahead than that right now and the only thing that matters is a satisfactory update. Gulp! GLA.

Come on, wildtiger. Nothing wrong with having made a wrong call. I make plenty myself.

But admit you got this one wrong :)

New range coming IMO. No idea yet what it will be, but watching with interest to potentially open another side pot trade.

The monthly chart looks great right now, but things will start getting interesting if/when we break, and hold, above the 200 DMA. Currently 41.16p.

Until then, maybe 36p-ish to 40p? Just some fun speculation while we wait to see what actually happens. GLA.

Would have preferred a BB to this small dividend, but solid enough progress overall, IMO.

Which is the main thing for me.

1.19% disclosed shorts currently.

Will be interesting to see if there is any change on this front in the coming days. GLA.

I thought they wanted to move fast, to avoid losing key people etc?

This is not my definition of fast and as the RNS states, they have the capacity to further extend the deadline, so 17th April might not be the conclusion, one way or the other.

Furthermore, the 'non binding, conditional offer' suggests to me that Sid are indeed waiting for the Deloitte report. Which was always a logical step for them to take, and which I think this extension is probably the reason for.

Back to a potential trading range for another couple of weeks perhaps?

It will also be interesting to see if the shorts start to exit in an orderly and controlled fashion, or if they increase. GLA.

The only suggestion I would make (not advice, because it's your money to increase or decrease etc, lol) would be not to slide all your chips in at one go. In any stock, not just this one.

Of course, you might get lucky and buy near the low, so a laddered approach might see a smaller return than said 'all in' strategy, but IMO, it is a poorer risk to reward play than my suggestion.

But like I said, just my thoughts and whatever decision you take, is yours alone to own. GLA.

If there is going to be a takeover, I do not see them paying more than the year high.

Why would they? Unless an external party comes in offering much more (enough to tempt AP anyway), then they can simply block any such attempts.

People can talk about fiduciary duty and the like, but I am sure we all know of many examples where this did not appear to be observed. It is what it is.

If the economy continues in the direction that seems likely, they might even be able to take it private for less, in six months or so.

It would be interesting to see if enough of the smaller shareholders would accept 455p-ish for a private take out.

I know that many on here have averages above that, but if MA and AP were able to come to some sort of agreement, then that would surely be that.

It remains an interesting, and indeed fascinating, play, but I do not see the prospect of some of the larger SP predictions coming to fruition. Or should I say being allowed to.

WBA across the Pond, while different in some respects, is an example that I am quite familiar with, being a shareholder in that name. Notwithstanding massive debt, it was/is looking like it has started to turn the corner...but apart from the biggest shareholder, nobody else is likely going to get the chance to benefit from the turnaround.

Especially with the IMO excessive termination fees involved, which will probably dissuade alternative bidders from stepping up. A bid that was not even matching the year high! Hey ho. GLA.

Oh, I agree. I knew someone, far smarter than me, who lost their shirt on this stuff. Albeit they flew too close to the sun using leverage. Which is one of the reasons why I avoid margin plays.

It is also why I avoid crypto plays.

Too many far more intelligent people than me, have diametrically opposed views on them.

On top of the fact that I simply have not found a way to put a potential value on any of them, meaning I cannot shake the conclusion that they are all greater fool theory plays. And I do not trust my chart stuff enough to simply use that as a guide to put actual money to work on those types of names.

But well done to those who make money in that space. No criticism or negative judgement from me.

Anyway, I think where we probably disagree on this name is perhaps on the timing of the previously discussed potential gap fill.

I think that a failed attempt at the 50 DMA will come before a possible retrace to said gap.

We have had increased II participation recently and at the time of print, no suggestion of big holder reductions since the update.

No significant short activity, or short increases, as far as I can tell.

I do not count the buttons inside buy as part of my bullish thesis. In fact, I considered selling up when I saw that RNS. Such a trifling buy, lol.

Absolutely nothing wrong with your slightly more conservative approach either. And FWIW, I am still sitting on significant amounts of dry powder, because I see far too many H&S potential formations across so, so many large caps. Especially across the Pond.

See what next week brings. Good weekend all.

That was one of the historic posts that I had in mind fairly recently, in response to one of Ashton's questions about various values. Another good find, Rach.

That 200K inside purchase in late February at 287p or so, suggests to me that nothing bad is going to come out of the woodwork.

Macro issues and the like cannot be ignored, so a new low print at some point in 2025 is feasible, but that is not the same thing as the point you made.

I have bought a few more. GLA.