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Then even less excuse for sloppy governance, where the CEO fails to comment on such a steep SP decline. Especially when he gave a 'we know of no reason for' RNS in January when the SP was rising steeply!

Anyway, sooner or later we will find out. GLA.

Yes indeed - good luck everyone. 1.60% on short tracker at the time of print.

Hopefully a crowded trade (to the upside!) on Monday.

But forward guidance is really going to be at least as important, if not more important, IMO, than the historic stuff. So hopefully our faith will not prove to be misplaced.

Nice to see a close on the high of the day. Hopefully a continuation next week. GLA.

Whether or not it does reverse as sharply as it has declined, it does not reflect well on the CEO for not having commented on the SP activity all this time.

He did back in early January, so it shows he has some basic knowledge and understanding of his legal responsibilities.

And if he does know the reason for this extraordinary and sustained period of selling, then he should have made a statement to this end.

Anyway, always good to have a reminder of the old maxim of playing stupid games and winning stupid prizes, now and again.

I am going to leave my punt money here for a bit longer, but this is also a good reminder not to apply TA to potentially questionable AIM tiddlers. Unlike serious outfits, where IMO it tends to be quite effective.

Good weekend all.

I think we all have our own weaknesses and propensities towards various addictions.

And I have no problem in restrictions that prevent or limit children to exposure.

Remember those sweets that were pretend cigarettes? Lol. Now that was bad form.

But I think what is truly unhealthy and ultimately the most damaging, is a society that does what we now do in most parts of the world, not just in the West.

Ultimately, freedom comes with a price tag: individual responsibility - and having self-discipline.

Managing your own weaknesses. Be it cigarettes, gambling, booze, narcotics, retail shopping etc.

The collateral damage of such a scenario would IMO not be nearly as bad as the levels of collateral damage that we see today with the current philosophy.

All a moot point though, as we are unlikely to ever see it put to the test.

Too many politicians and their handlers benefit from the current status quo. Far more than they would under my scenario.

Individual responsibility - exactly.

It was never the business of government to interfere, but I appreciate this is a minority opinion these days.

So, we have more security cameras, more compliance requirements, and other red tape BS in our lives than ever before.

A price worth paying perhaps, if we had safe streets, clean rivers and lakes, and high levels of prosperity.

Yet we have none of the good stuff, in exchange for ever diminishing personal freedom and liberty. Ho hum.

I doubt many bought in with that in mind.

More likely on fundamentals and the fairly meaty inside buying.

See where we are at the end of 2025. IMO, 270p or so at least, at some point during the year. GLA.

I added a few more myself in the 50p area - but this has still not found a bottom.

Still plenty available to buy at this price, so we might need one more flush, before the sellers are finally exhausted and we can hopefully start the SP repair work. GLA.

MW are one of the short outfits that I pay plenty of attention to. They win a lot more than they lose. But they do lose sometimes.

And while I do not know how they operate, I would imagine that they do use a variety of financial instruments, so doubt they are sitting on a current £2 million loss here - but I do not know that for certain. So I could be wrong.

Looking at the range the SP has been in for a while now, you cannot entirely rule out a lower price than 60p either, in my view.

I may as well go the whole hog now: 45p-50p, or a re-fi deal that will be highly dilutive.

Hence my earlier Hobsons Choice comment.

Either way, this is not moving fast, especially considering the short time frame that Sid has needed to examine, since their last look under the bonnet.

Unlike some here, I take the view that the longer this takes, the more likely a bad outcome, in terms of a bid.

But I look 10% profit on my 37's, and have a smaller tranche left in play here now (40p purchases, since you asked).

On the fence with those ones. Will take a view if we get a run up, leading into the weekend.

Either way, I am not holding for a longer term play, in the event of a no bid and a re fi deal. Not with this BOD. GLA.

Monty: I think that is the conclusion that a lot of the shorts have reached as well.

Hence still over 5% disclosed short interest, plus whatever is under the threshold.

60p would not hurt most of the shorts (I think I am right in saying) and the terms of an alternative re-fi option, would, IMO, be terrible for existing holders, and thus allow them to exit with additional upside, in all probability.

I can see the BOD offering both options at the same time: low ball offer, or a re-fi deal. Hobsons Choice for most.

But if all the talk of a quid/150p/200p etc turns out to be right, then this will be the biggest short squeeze of 2025.

That is one way to look at it. Lol.

Not too much of a kitchen sink job hopefully, or they should have pre-warned before now.

But either way, you would expect Shakespeare to get things back on track fairly soon. And hopefully a bid to follow soon after. GLA.

In short: no. But I think a bid, if we were to get one, would be comfortably north of the current SP.

Comfortably short of the last offer as well though. AIMO & GLA.

True. They have several days to notify, and more if they are a foreign entity (I think). GLA.

Just looking to fill those two gaps in the 40's IMO.

If we see a rise above 45p, then that could start to make things interesting. Because I would imagine quite a few shorts will have stops around that level. So it could lead to some jolly japes :)

But no - this is nothing like the kind of price action that would suggest a leak.

Hard to tell right now. Well, I am not confident that I can see anything in the charts that give any clear indications. But that could just be me.

I am surprised that we have not had any holdings notifications, after that significant volume yesterday.

But as long as the May update is good, then who cares? Lol. GLA.

It depends if you think that interest rates are likely to increase, or decrease.

For a range of reasons, the latter is far more likely. If this proves to be a correct assumption, then servicing that debt becomes far easier (although I have not looked at debt maturity dates here for a while).

It is clearly not a low risk play, but for the reasons that I, and a few others have cited previously, some of us like the risk/reward metrics.

Time will tell. GLA.

I disagree with your time-frame, but sure, anything is possible.

More realistic IMO is a bid materially lower than the last time, which the large shareholders may consider preferable in this environment.

The BOD has a significant amount of skin in the game here, and I would not be surprised to see some more inside buys in the days ahead. Assuming they are able to.

No TR-1's yet either, so hopefully the key players are still onside.

Let's see where we are in a few weeks, when the dust has settled. GLA.

IMO, to justify a SP in the 70's or higher, debt needs to be lower than it currently is. I think that is the key driver for this material drop in price.

EBITDA is not something that I give any value to, personally. So I do not care about that 'highlight'.

Nevertheless, my opinions cited yesterday remain unchanged. I am willing to give Pers more time (or a bid prospect to do the rounds again) and have nibbled a few more again this morning.

Without inside buying, I do see this going lower though.

Ultimately, at some point, I see this at least returning to the low 60's, simply on a technical bounce, and once the sellers have been exhausted. I hope so anyway, lol. GLA.

I avoid leverage plays. I used to know someone that lost their shirt (and a lot more), playing on margin.

Tesla, Palantir and a couple of others, have been very profitable recent trades for me. DG as well, although I exited just before earnings, on that delightful run up.

Defence stocks are usually good ones to keep in a basket, sadly. I also do not see that changing, although not sure if a lot of that optimism has already been priced in.

While a horrible company, lol, I am thinking about taking a few PFE. Ignoring sentiment (like Tesla), that chart is so beaten down, that I think it could be a nice little trade, with a decent dividend to boot.

Would add on the way down, as I would not be surprised to even see it touch 20 USD, as markets start to price in any fresh rounds of fines for XYZ. Might open a book market holding soon with this in mind. Earnings on 29th April I think.

Will be continuing to keep an eye on the Mag 7 for fresh trades; IMO they need another leg down, before a run back up to somewhere or other. As always, various key economic data stuff will have a bearing in the weeks ahead.

TTFN.