Member Info for LSELoser

Craigo love the beer analogy :). Also whoever picked up below 1000 today - that was a nice move. Lets hope this draws a line under the lows of Wizz and some recovery starts to happen. GLA

Bored this morning, so my analysis is. IAG is topping out and has the worst outlook (although I thought RR was topping out at 240/300 - so what do I know). But USA is adding a new $250 charge to some travellers - on the flip side if less people want to travel to the USA more people probably still want to travel the other way.

Euro budget airlines will be a beneficiary. So like the sector even through an economic dip. Basically you can fly and holiday in europe cheaper then staying in the UK. So why not. People will always holiday. P/Es are good so long term i think there is hope. Bear in mind i am usually wrong and mistimed..... I sold my TGA to buy EZJ on the dip.

Ah ha Chatgpt helped explain it (although it is beyond me still):

'Spreadex’s stake in Oxford BioDynamics isn’t an investment in the traditional sense—it's a byproduct of their role as a market maker and platform provider for spread bets and CFDs. Threshold notifications reflect their exposure via derivative instruments used to hedge or balance client activity—rather than a strategic equity stake or long-term investment.'

So I am still wondering why Spreadex would have a major holding in OBD? I can only think it is to play with the share price rather than altruistic reasons:

'Spreadex is a financial trading and sports betting firm regulated by the FCA. They offer spread betting and CFDs on over 10,000 global markets. Spreadex also provides fixed odds betting, and has a reputation for good customer service. Spreadex recently adjusted its financial instruments related to Oxford BioDynamics (OBD), which was the subject of a major holdings notification.

'

Woke up this morning and checked share prices (didn't know it was results day) saw EZJ down7-8% and thought 'Oh, it must be results day and looks like EZJ got the usual good results'. SMH

That's not a bad plan, i shifted some as well. But keeping some IAG to cover the bases. This results trade is like clockwork. Next time I may sell some ezj about a month before results with a view to buying in on result day. I was going to sell some before results this time but totally lost track of the days. Not too happy about the CEO - seems like a big complainer. I mean fuel costs should not be a factor if managed well - particularly as oil is relatively cheap in £ terms and the higher prices were transient this year. Anyway, good buying opportunity again.

So one might think Pfizer would make an offer to buy them out or share IP. But they are ruthless and probably think they can wait until OBD runs out of money (at this price level they can't raise anything substantial on the AIM). They will delist and Pfizer picks up what it wants at a bargain. I invested this am because I think the tech is so valuable that another player may come in and force a bid or even bidding war. Who knows - but the Prostate test alone should be worth a forune! Everyone should be doing it as prevention.

There are a lot of short positions at the moment. If they get squeezed things will look good.

Why would spreadex do this - 'Spreadex LTD acquires significant financial instruments in Oxford BioDynamics.'?

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/oxford-biodynamics-announces-change-in-major-holdings-2

I'm struggling to see the issue here. Big divi's, pretty consistent performance, copper price up, i dont get it. Why the big drop.

Just thinking random thoughts today but it would be great idea for IAG to buy wizz I think...... Its cheap as chips - even if you doubled the price. But again just a random thought.

After a few years following this, good results and good forward outlook - the shares have always been hit. If I had traded that in the past few years I would have made a fortune. I always think the next results are the ones that the pattern will change - it never does. Maybe I will trade it this time??????????????????

You know this would be a much more attractive share this time of year if they had a summer dividend. Its such a pain waiting once a year. Probably why it lacks interest in the early summer - combined with the last results being low season losses. Given all that I think the shares have held up pretty well and I look forward to a peaceful and prosperous q3 and q4 or is it q2 and q3? Whatever I am sure you know what i mean....

I think it must have been the UK retail sales figures sinking in. Bit of an overreaction. There was a blip on Wizz as well (less so on IAG). Still people taking holidays - maybe eating less lol. People still prioritize holidays and as lovely as the UK is - like to get away.

What's with the drop today when most airlines are positive.... some news somewhere? or just a wobble. I like to think a wobble lol

To be honest you guys are arguing over nothing, i guess if anything ebb and flow based on short term ebb and flow vs longer term ebb and flow. You are both right. My view is that charts are not much good at the moment when the macro events are driving movements. Airlines are probably best to be out of - but I am bottom fishing and buying while there is fear - that said are we at the bottom as we know they can be lower.

Problem we have is that one event can drive these quickly up or down. I'm a FOMO guy and now a little more exposed than I should be - but got to speculate to accumulate! Good luck all - we need it!

I think it is to be expected that someone will strike during every holiday period these days. :( probably already have a factor in their projections for that.

I should also say smart money would avoid airlines in this current environment.... but Im not smart....

So still big holding in EZJ but after years of resistance - bottom fishing wizz. I think EZJ much more stable but cant resist - remember I am usually wrong.....

Shame I had a mid size holding (bought too high as well). But this might be a buying opportunity so topped up again. Its not a major issue at the moment but do feel there is something more than weather. Anyway, gold is still a good place to be and analysis shows only about a 4% affect so ....

At a consensus gold price of $2,575 per ounce, including hedging, and assuming a cash cost of $1,428, RBC calculates the downgrade in production would reduce full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by $25 million. That represents about 4% of current consensus forecasts.