Member Info for LSELoser

Well markets are on edge that trump is nearing the end of his reign (as rumours are swirling about his non-appearance) - true of false, good or bad it would unsettle the markets and political situation for a short period if USA leadership were to change. That said, this is one big tree shake, buying opportunity - although I would wait until after 2pm usa time (eastern?) to see what the whitehouse announcement is before making any decisions. Maybe people are getting a little cash free to deploy where needed when we know whats going on. Anyway i'm HODLing for now.

I think the counter argument is that with 90M passengers you don't have to increase prices too much to really add to the bottom line. £5 per passenger more and that's 500M extra profit. Get selling those on board snacks and tweak the price just a bit.....

It sure has been a little frustrating. Waiting for the post covid recovery in share price that never comes (even though business is great). Still it is what it is. I had a brain wave this morning about it all. It seemed the behavior was like this last year - summer holding pattern then price rise (hopefully) through to Jan/Feb.

So i got to thinking that Sep is a fantastic month to hold dividend stocks - some paying out 5% ish this month (for example TW, CAML, GKP) and lots paying about 2%. What if there is a roll of money into those dividend shares over the summer - and out of shares with some risk, no news on the horizon (ie no results), and not paying dividends. Then after Sep they roll back into share like airlines where the results will be good for the summer perriod, some dividends are there.

All that said - I expect a good ramp up in share price from late sep forward. then rinse and repeat I guess until some changes the pattern.

anyway that was my morning flash of brilliance which is generally meaningless particularly after being at the pub last night.

Sure they have debt but their assets are more than their liabilities by over 3B. And they have 3.5B available in cash and short term investments. Given they are likely to make another 750M+ this year in profit - things seem pretty rosy.

O'leary does seem to have that affect.... wonder what he said this time...

Well it could be budget rumours but can't see them killing the aviation industry with too much. It is a strange drop as can't see anything that would account for a 4% drop. Oils up a bit, but nothing significant. Can't figure it out - probably someone messing with the share price for the shorts - is it a low volume day?

Topped up at 487....

I am just wondering what EZJ are doing! They have a market cap of 3.8B but have 3.5B in cash! Surely there must be something useful they can do with that money - if not announce a special dividend and give some reward to the shareholders. The shares are lagging because there seems to be no balanced reward for the shareholders. Or do a significant buy back of 1-2B - that would sort out the share price......

This is form the bbc site this morning

'As we've been reporting, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says the main driver for inflation was higher air fares, which ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner says was "likely due to the timing of this year's school holidays".

Fitzner adds that the increase of 30.2% was the biggest jump for that period since the collection of monthly data began in 2001. This rise in July 2025 is compared to a rise of 13.3% over the same period in 2024.

When data was recorded on air fare prices last year it was during the school term, the ONS explains in its report.

"Whereas returning European flights were during the school holidays in 2025, which may have made these flights more expensive," the ONS says in its report.

Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell says "parents who saved for months to take the family on a post-school break will have had first-hand experience of one of the main drivers of July’s larger than expected jump.

“It always feels unfair when you watch air fares shoot up on the first day of parents’ six-week summer window and it’s notable that with the holidays falling earlier in July this year, the cost of a flight for a week in the sun would have been subject to that school holiday premium and reflected in this month’s figures."'

Well in my book higher airfares is more revenue which is good - just needs not to be wiped out by fuel costs (hopefully they are in the zone) and employee costs. The later will be affected by NI and general wage growth. I think it will be a slight net positive for ezj. As for Xhitas' comments about the brits and numbers being flat on last year - maybe so but last year was an amazing year and airports were full - considering the economy thats a good sign i think. Hoping this year will be that steady increase towards 1B profit figure - I'll be happy to hold.

What makes me crazy mad is stupid retail shares like BRBY and Diageo - get crazy high P/E ratings on businesses that (to me) have a decreasing market.....

oh well it doesn't help ezj to criticize other shares i guess lol

If the data on the shorts page is correct then they have a real problem. Seems most of them piled in after 6 Jun and price was about 1180. There is a LOT of shorts 5% ish? They are now deeply underwater and the outlook doesn't look like an immediate retracement is due. There will be a point when they have to eat their losses. Of course I am no expert in shorts etc but in my view this looks like the squeeze is on......

Just reading more into O'leary comments and found this https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/ryanair-chief-repeats-belief-wizz-air-will-soon-be-acquired-by-another-company .

His opinion is interesting, especially if the withdrawal from dubai is linked to a middle east takeover. But all speculation. But I also found the Varadi interview interesting in the lack of committing to new routes east. CEO said focus to get the aircraft back up and running which makes sense. But I would expect more on future route ambitions as well. To me my conspiracy mind says takeover is getting to be a possibility. But that is all conjecture.......

Interesting interview. I think O'leary is not wrong when he calls out a possible takeover - at this price level, potential market penetration, possible efficiency savings - this would be a no brainer for some airline. Plus alot of airlines are awash with cash at the moment. Other than that, the recovery play over the next 2 years seems like a good story.

Hey Garonne , I'm the same - can't seem to find the sweet spot in the ftse gains. Banks seem to have inspired the lastest push upwards, commodities before that. Maybe defence stocks are moving as well now? I think the best thing that can happen to us airline junkies is peace in Ukraine. Which I hope for anyway.

Yeah its a strange thing about ezj performance. If i remember it was like this last summer then a nice run up from end of summer to xmas for ezj. Wizz i think is more volatile (for good reasons) but it was really hit badly over the last month or 2 - now is recovering. IAG seems to be able to just keep getting support (bit like the RR of airlines). IAG has low PE and is more stable - so guess people like that. I think they have results on Friday - so that will be an interesting point. I am an investor in IAG as well but have reduced holdings based on my feeling about USA air travel being hit. But in the end if they give a good outlook the shares should continue to climb - but any signs of weakness may not be taken well - still how low can they go at a pe of about 7 or 8. EZJ will have its day (but when is a different story). At these levels it seems like a good investment to me and is currently my #1 airline holding behind wizz -That may mean its going to be a bad investment lol.

If you could just buy an airline - like in a shop - EZJ should buy Wizz. 5B turnover and Market Cap 1.3B. EZJ could buy it with 1/3 of their cash, make efficiency savings, create wizz holidays, and make some serious cash. It also takes a competitor out of the market. Valuations at the moment for airlines are crazy cheap.

Ezj is only showing about 1.7% short and wizz is showing about 5% (unless it hasn't been updated since friday's rise). If the price continues to push higher - its going to be very interesting for longs :) and very bad for the shorts.

Wow OTCDS2023 that's brutal - JP shorts the stock then downgrades the next day. That stuff shouldn't be allowed. Well at least this time they got their fingers burnt!

Those oranges have been squeezed so hard all that is left is the dry flaky peels.

There was a lot of shorts on this share, JP morgan even increased yesterday. Lemon Squeezee......