Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Morri940 - Quite.

Thing is, even if we do hear something on Monday morning, we can be 100% sure Tigger knew nothing about it.

Like I said, even a stopped clock tells the time twice.

But I DO hope he’s not put off if Monday comes & goes without an update. Now more than ever, Britain needs its stand ups.

Let’s dissect Tigger’s language in his hugely helpful - not to mention highly amusing - latest “scoop”, shall we?

You’ll note there are more weasel words and get-out clauses than Houdini & Mystic Meg could ever have dreamt up between them. A few of the real corkers are highlighted in caps below:

“WORD ON THE STREET is that immupharma's p140 program caught the eye of major biopharma players”

“discussions are now POSSIBLY finalising re: global licensing agreements”

“CONNECT THE DOTS, folks”

“THE STARS ARE ALIGNING, and THE SMART MONEY KNOWS IT”

“MY CITY BANKER BUDDIES, they've had EARS SO CLOSE TO THE GROUND - WINK, WINKY WINK, NUDGE NUDGE NUDGE, can SAY NO MORE at this stage”

“it is incumbent upon me to elucidate that the foregoing commentary is not to be construed as financial advice”

Oh Tigger, you’re SOOOOO funny. That’s quite made my Saturday morning. Bet you even make yourself laugh.

Cheapsharesboy - thanks for the apology & good luck with your investments too.

Dawson_64 - interesting points.

A fair part of the increased debt position is down to pledge book growth though.

Would the market really have reservations, when the company's central business model revolves around borrowing cash at a relatively low rate, then lending it out at a significantly higher one? Particularly when customers are required to pledge items as a hedge against potential default?

Admittedly, the company has also invested in gradual expansion & modernisation of the store estate, as well as the Maxcroft acquisition (which I have to say, I think they paid a slightly rich price for). But both those should still prove cash positive in the short to medium term.

The fund reductions you mention may be having an impact. Don't know about Camelot, but Octopus & Fidelity still retain significant stakes of around 10% each. So as things stand, the reductions don't look like a major vote of no confidence.

I guess the higher cost of borrowing & slightly pared back dividend growth rate could also be denting sentiment slightly.

But to end on a positive, H&T's SP experienced a similar slump last year.

Between January 24's TU and March 24's Prelims, the SP drifted from around 400p to 335p. It then rapidly went back up above 400p, dipped again to around 365p in early April 24, before climbing to a peak of around 427p in early May 24.

All of which goes to show this is less of a tuck-away-&-forget kind of share. More one to trade periodically.

One thing's for sure.

If Tiger16's "nudge nudge wink wink" predictions ever come to anything, it'll be PURE coincidence.

Gotta hand it to him though, his constant drivel is SO absurd, it's really quite entertaining:

"I have been researching ... I am of the opinion the deal is done and those in the know are now taking positions .."

Researching - my ar$e.

Thanks BigBiteNow

Could you confirm which placing you’re referring to? The latest was at 15p, so I can’t imagine those investors would be selling out so soon & accepting a loss. Unless they subsequently think they’ve made a big mistake.

There’ve obviously also been two previous investment rounds. At 5p & 10p from memory. But you’d have thought any of those early adopters wanting to reduce would have done so when the price was higher (which it had been for some considerable time prior.)

In terms of newsflow, you’d certainly think confirmation of Rudyard being in production or successful acidisation of Clink 1 would help. But we’ve had many a positive RNS already (think Rudyard), yet the SP has only ever registered relatively small gains - & even then, not hung onto them.

I’m not thinking of ditching any of my existing holding right now. If anything, I’m toying with adding to average down. But the apparent inability of Hex’s SP to react to anything positive (except by drifting down even further) is weighing on my decision currently.

The point some overlook here is that 15% growth only applies for January.

In retail - particularly with cosmetics, where sales will be heavily skewed towards Christmas - January’s figures are tiny so relatively insignificant.

It’s relatively easy to achieve 15% growth in a month which probably generates less than 5% of your annual sales. Maintaining that momentum through Feb & March (Valentine's & Mother’s Day) and again in the peak months of Nov & Dec will be far more challenging. As this year’s H2 slowdown proved.

BigBiteNow - thanks for your detailed analysis.

The point I struggle with is that "temporary market mechanics" are behind the current SP weakness.

Newsflow has been frequent & plentiful with Hex. And overall pretty positive to date - notwithstanding the odd inevitable roadbump.

So why would the market remain so sceptical for so long? Markets are said to be efficient. And whilst in practice this isn't always the case at any given moment, anomalies tend to be fairly shortlived, barring some left field development (positive or negative).

I remain a holder here, but find it odd that despite many reasons to be cheerful, the share price continues to drift. Would be interested in your thoughts. And anyone else's views on this.

Dawson_64 - I agree it does seem puzzling, especially after January's TU which I felt was generally pretty reassuring.

A few possible explanations spring to mind:

1) The TU implied much of the (significant) pledge book growth came in relatively late LY. If so, the main benefit, profits-wise, may only be felt in the current FY.

Since UK markets seem less forward-looking than usual at the moment, they attach less value to future earnings (however certain) than current ones.

2) HAT won't escape the persistent gloomy UK retail & economic backdrop. Personally, I think if there are worries on that front, they're largely misplaced. April's NI increase will undoubtedly add to costs (TU implied to the tune of approx. £2m). However the company said it was exploring options to offset this - at least in part. And at times when inflation's ticking up & money's short for a lot of households, there are far worse industries to be in than pawnbroking.

3) Lack of recent share buying by Executive Directors. Personally, this IS a major concern of mine and I made it very clear at last year's results webinar. Their answer was a mixture of waffle and "watch this space" kind of language. Well, I have been watching this space & nothing's changed. So I'll be raising it very forcefully again at this year's webinar.

If Executive Directors feel the current lowly multiple undervalues the company they're running, they should put their money where their mouth is. The amount they earn, most of them must have at least a bit of dosh they could invest. And if they don't feel it's undervalued, perhaps they should come clean (yes I know it's a trifle unlikely they'd let on. But it would be jolly nice of them to let us know!)

4) Many AIM & UK small cap shares are struggling currently, with investors perhaps preferring the perceived (though not always real) safety of blue chips &/or US & global funds.

5) "The market" has simply got it wrong. It wouldn't be the first time with HAT. I've traded this share on several occasions over the years I've held it. Historically, it's often gyrated between periods of over-exuberance & unfounded gloom. My gut feel right now is we're more in the latter camp. In which case an upwards re-rate might be on the cards within the next 12 months. But as I often say with this share, I could be wrong.......

So Tiger16 is "not permitted to share a source".

And IMM "is not at this time releasing detailed data".

Anyone else feel we're being tied up in "nots"?

Cynics may wonder whether W7L delayed its TU in the hope most Brand Architekt shareholders had already elected to take up their 0.0916 Warpaintshares per Brand Architekt share held, rather than the 48p cash alternative.

Following today's drop here, Brand Architekt shareholders are FAR better off taking the cash.

W7L shares would have to rise above 524p again to make the Alternative Share Offer more attractive. That now looks highly unlikely within the scheme timetable.

Mathematically, Brand Architekt shareholders are now significantly better off taking the 48p/share CASH OFFER, rather than reinvesting that into 0.0916 W7L shares.

Ilovesushi - like a stopped clock, GoldGirl & this board's other serial rampers will occasionally get the time right simply by the law of averages.

Just as today they've got it wrong - singing the company's praises whilst the SP drops nearly10% at time of writing.

As you quoted in my 10th December post, I said "if nothing continues to change the price will continue to drop." Clearly, something DID change when the 9th January RNS came out. The question is, will it ever actually be followed up with any meaningful deal?

The 28th January "Response to Share Price Movement" RNS & the subsequent SP drift suggests that at best we're still some way off any such deal.

I placed a dummy deal with Iweb just now and had no trouble getting the following quote first time.

I didn't proceed, but could have done:

Buy 66744 HEX - HELIX EXPLORATION ORD GBP0.01 at a price of 14.96p

Morri940 - if you're referring to me, I'm not trying to get anyone to sell (or buy for that matter).

Why would anyone with half a brain be in the least bit influenced by any unknown poster on a BB?

All I'm trying to do is provide a bit of balance, when posters like Goldgirl only EVER see the positives in everything (despite history & the facts showing this to be deeply flawed).

Officemanager - agreed. Which is why I’ve challenged Goldgirl, as she (I presume it’s a she?) IS counting on everything coming up trumps.

Goldgirl - the positive discussions & P140 “breakthrough” have yet to be quantified. So far precisely nowt has come of them since January’s “I have a dream” RNS.

It’s true there hasn’t been another placing. And hopefully there may not be a need for one currently.

Yes, we’ve sure had “a number of surprises” from Tim over the years. Just generally not of the pleasant variety.

As for the market cap, it is what it is. You feel it undervalues the company massively. And if Tim finally delivers on one of his promises, you may well be right. I just wouldn’t bank on it if I were you.

Officemanager- I do still have a holding here, but have largely written it off for now. It’s not a major part of my investments, so if IMM comes good great. If not, I won’t lose sleep over it. Being a holder doesn’t mean you automatically have to lap up everything the CEO says. Indeed long term holders here will know that’s the very last thing you should do with someone like Tim.

Goldgirl - I’m not suggesting you should be negative. Just realistic.

You claim it’s undervalued whichever way you look at it. But that’s hope talking rather than facts.

You also say “Tim has transformed this company and means business”.

Again, hope over fact. Where’s your evidence, other than hearsay from Tim himself, which as I’ve shown is hopelessly unreliable. Tim has presided over a company administration (Alizime), a failed P3 trial (IMM) and a botched sales launch (Incanthera). How can you trust him to deliver this time?

Goldgirl - why do you constantly feel the need to talk up IMM?

It’s like you’re trying to convince yourself. Most of the reasons you give are down to things Tim McC has said recently. Which may finally come true this time, who knows? But he has a sorry track record of stringing investors along with his Del Boy “this time next year we’ll be millionaires” line. Only to find next year never comes.

I’ve frequently mentioned his latest (of umpteen) examples, this time with Incanthera. There, his company was on the cusp of rolling out a highly lucrative new sales channel which he promised would totally transform its prospects. Only to tell investors a couple of months later that an out of the blue patent infringement claim had come along, preventing the sales rollout for now. The share price promptly tanked 80% and has failed to make most of this up since.

Whenever I mention things like this, people like you either ignore it or say it’ll be different with IMM this time. I really hope you’re right. But until you & your fellow rampers can explain your unquestioning confidence in Tim McC & Immupharma, given the serial disappointments he’s presided over, I fear your optimism is woefully misplaced.

Winnings1 - you’re welcome. As I said originally, that’s why recommendations aren’t generally advisable without knowing the other person’s intentions & any potential red lines.