Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

though an entirely different kettle of fish this time, that latest tweet brought back hideous memories of the bubbling cauldron tweet which turned out (almost literally) to be a load of hot air.

i wish they’d always stick to scientific facts. rather than throwing in the occasional back of a *** packet guesstimate.

I cannot help but think you’re wrong.

Stas20 - agreed.

The BOD could have raised far more than they did via the initial 10p IPO.

Instead, they raised enough to make significant progress. Then, having added value, they were able to do a non-discounted placing at a 50% premium to the initial IPO.

Providing Rudyard overcomes the need for any further raises (short term at least), I'm happy with that.

Walp - with respect, nobody knows the future.

So to say the worst financial decision would be to sell SMT right now is opinion rather than fact. SMT has risen c. 37% over the past year. Some - who may have been invested for a considerable time already - will want to lock in those gains. Others, like you, may expect further gains in the future and will be happy to hold/add if they don't need the cash right now.

I happen to agree with you, in that I believe SMT should fare reasonably in the medium term - particularly with Trump's lighter touch regime.

But people have all sorts of reasons for selling. They may need the capital. They may want to use this year's CGT allowance for any shares held outside tax free wrappers (as I will be, having first bought at £3.22).

I don't recall reading posts on here "essentially calling the trust criminal". I also wouldn't classify SMT as "safe" or "reasonably balanced". Sure, it holds a number of different investments. But they're quite concentrated geographically & sectorally. So higher risk than, say, a global index tracker (which will also hold a number of stocks).

I'm not meaning to have a go at you, as essentially I agree with your sentiment. Just not quite with the way you've expressed it!

Thanks TotalWealth - it's hard to see how the Dr Morepen deal could fail to deliver a decent uplift and I remain a holder based largely on that & the hope that Sweetbiotix might actually launch within my lifetime.

As for TW, I choose to ignore him. But from other people's posts, hasn't he been tipping Opti for years now, often at prices way higher than today's? By the law of averages, on that basis he might eventually get it right I guess.

Good luck with your holding.

TotalWealth - sarcasm doesn’t become you.

I agree there’s no need to fundraise. They can simply sell off even more of the SBTX family silver, as they frequently did in 2024.

No idea who the sellers are. Must be multiple sellers though, rather than YSF (or any other institution) offloading a significant chunk. Otherwise they’d have been legally obliged to issue a TR1 long before now.

Can anyone point to recent TR1s, confirming YSF’s reductions?

If not, why not?

Ubik_Fresh - quite right!

Also, despite often being classified as a tech fund, SMT is relatively diversified in terms of sectors. Though highly concentrated on US growth stocks.

The DeepSeek news will undoubtedly knock tech prices short term. Maybe longer. But at least SMT had the foresight/luck to reduce its exposure to Nvidia & ASML significantly last year:

www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/industry-news/scottish-mortgage-cuts-nvidia-on-concerns-of-skyrocketing-ai-costs#:~:text=The%20results%20showed%20Scottish%20Mortgage,close%20partner'%20TSMC%20of%20Taiwan.

Yes OK, there's still the small matter of Moderna! But that "only" represented 2% by value on 31 Dec 2024.

TotalWealth - 1) If you take TW’s hearsay as evidence of anything, you’re asking for trouble. On the other hand, you DO share the same initials……

2) Just ask yourself, if you owned a large holding in a company, is it likely you’d pre-announce your selling intentions giving everyone a timetable. I mean, really.

Uggy100 - more the latter I'd suggest.

At 31 Dec 2024, Nvidia represented 4.1% of SMT's value. SMT is currently down around 6%.

So even if Nvidia had gone bust, it wouldn't fully account for this morning's 6% correction.

And despite its fall so far in 2025, Nvidia remains over double its price from 12 months ago.

I'm just glad SMT have reduced their holding substantially, as we were way too exposed when it represented a double digit % of the fund.

Oscar22 - whilst your latest post has 18 recommends so far, it also contains rather a lot of caveats (SEE MY CAPS BELOW):

"on the BRINK"

"the platform PROMISES to refine"

"Tim’s discussions HINT at imminent partnerships POISED to inject substantial non-dilutive capital"

"These partnerships are EXPECTED to secure financial stability"

"Tim's confidence in these “substantial” deals reflects a POTENTIAL windfall in the tens of billions"

"hidden gems within the portfolio that COULD dazzle the market"

"The incoming partnerships and their resultant funding are SLATED to foster a self-sustaining growth model"

"PROMISING partnerships"

I don't disagree that IMM has the potential to go places. That's been the case for years now. & is why I continue to hold.

The most recent RNS adds a further intriguing dimension (albeit one Tim hides any detail of currently, on the pretext of patents still being needed to protect IP). So why announce it at all until the patents are in place, unless you simply want to create a buzz & a temporary artificial SP boost?

As your post suggests, alongside all the potential there's still an awful lot of wouldv'e, should've, could've with IMM.

TotalWealth - how do you know YSF are "behind their schedule to exit"?

Unlikely they'd give away their game plan....

Thanks Morri940 - same to you.

aat****z - i am of course enjoying a lifetime of sailing round the caribbean these days.

but the winds have got up right now, so you’ll be relieved to hear i’ve a bit of time below deck to post.

ps: i do actually hold imm and am simply pointing out to the glass.overflowing brigade that it may not all be plain sailing going forward.

now, where did i put that rum punch?

Morri940 - I did enjoy Disneyland thanks.

And I agree things may be different with IMM this time. All I’m saying is that posters hanging on Tim’s every word should be aware that, historically, things haven’t always turned out the way he predicted.

Which makes all these posts about Tim smiling/using the word certainty/about to sign a mega deal ring rather hollow.

Just so everyone’s aware & goes in/holds with their eyes fully open to Tim’s way of operating.

The mistake some continue to make on here is to take Tim’s interviews at face value, saying he’ll be investigated if his “promises” aren’t delivered.

Guys, Tim has a LONG history of keeping shareholders sweet by telling them things are about to explode. Which they often promptly do. Just not in the way he implied.

As I’ve said many times already, just look at the latest example with Incanthera. Another classic Tim special.

Incanthera 26 Sept 2024 RNS extract:

“Incanthera's Skin + CELL initial launch production order, together with previously advised additional production orders, totalling 350,000 units, will now be used for the wider European roll out for anticipated orders before the Company's current financial year to 31 March 2025. This re-affirms management's projected revenues for the financial year to exceed £10 million and for Incanthera to achieve profitability.”

Incanthera 26 November 2024 extract:

“ The Company advises that it has received unsupported allegations from a third party concerning potential patent infringement in relation to the formulation of the Skin + Cell range of products. The Company considers the unsupported allegations to be without merit.

The Company is currently in communication with the third party in order to resolve this matter expediently. No formal proceedings have yet been issued, but the Company is prepared to issue related proceedings in the event that a resolution cannot be achieved swiftly.

As a result, the Company is unable to launch Skin + CELL at this time.”

Incanthera 26 Sept 2024 closing share price: 25p

Incanthera 26 November 2024 closing share price: 5.5p

You have been warned. Repeatedly now.

Mol42 - your argument about another imminent fundraise may be right.

However, it does suggest that despite all the extra marketing activity outlined, there is no significant sales uplift. Whilst that could be correct - or there could at least be a lengthy timelag between marketing activity & increased sales, it very much falls into the glass half empty camp.

You maybe take the view - given Opti’s sales history - that that’s the only logical conclusion. But there is always a possible alternative outcome this time.

Michael2021 - Tim’s laughing whatever the outcome.

Whilst I agree body language can sometimes be useful in sifting the wheat from the chaff, with Tim you just never know. Slippery as an eel in oil.

Thanks cheapsharesboy

The thing with a lot of the megarampers is they often only crawl out of the woodwork when a share has suddenly, unexpectedly reversed its previous flat/downward trajectory.

They aren’t always aware of/bothered by the company’s longer term history. And will therefore ignore potential red flags (e.g. companies like IQE which have repeatedly promised jam tomorrow, only to fall short subsequently on their own guidance).

Instead, the rampers will tell us everything’s different this time. This really is the turning point & you’ve gotta be in it to win it, promising an imminent multi bagger.

Very occasionally they’ll be right. But more often than not, the turnaround fails to materialise like all the previous ones the company promised. At which point, the rampers scuttle back to their burrows & cast around for their next five day wonder.

As you’ll have already gathered, my take on IQE is rather different. I see it having potential within the next couple of years. But I don’t view it as a get rich quick share. If it does succeed, I reckon it’ll be a slow burn, as most existing shareholders here have justifiably lost trust over the years and will only hold or add on tangible results.

And any sane new investors doing even a modicum of due diligence will soon see that it’s very high risk, with plenty of things that could still go wrong.

Good luck to all genuine LTHs. As for the rampy traders, well you already know what I think of you.

Djframboise - fine. As your name suggests, I’ve just blown you one big musical raspberry.

Bye bye.