Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

For those hanging on McCarthy’s every word, here’s what he said about Incanthera on 11 July 2024, following the announcement of a second production order:

“The resulting revenues generated to Incanthera will allow us to further bolster our inventory capacity and ongoing commercial operational model, thereby driving revenue growth and, in turn, increasing the value of our company and the capacity for returns to shareholders."

Incanthera’s share price was 30p back then.

And Incanthera’s share price six months on, now the value of the company has been - errr - “increased”?

5.5p, following this bombshell RNS on 26 November 2024:

“The Company advises that it has received unsupported allegations from a third party concerning potential patent infringement in relation to the formulation of the Skin + Cell range of products…..The Company considers the unsupported allegations to be without merit.

As a result, the Company is unable to launch Skin + CELL at this time.”

That’s not to say Incanthera won’t eventually resolve its patent issue. But it does go to show Tim’s prediction of imminently hitting the jackpot should never be taken seriously. Assuming you value wealth preservation. Try doing further research on the fate of some of his previous enterprises. You may conclude they make for grim reading…..

Dallo - I agree with some of your points & believe IMM has huge potential. But equally, I fear TM could still very easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

IMHO it’s nonsense when you claim: “We have been ignored by the UK financial markets for reasons we all know as investors run from the UK Stock Markets particularly after Brexit”.

Investors have largely ignored IMM because:

a) It completely mishandled the last P3 trial, notably in terms of dosing.

b) Tim McC has repeatedly over-promised & under-delivered. Not just here, but in pretty much all his other ventures (Incanthera being just the latest example, where he clearly implied riches were just around the corner. Until they suddenly weren’t).

c) For the reasons stated above, I’d suggest it’s time to revisit your view that “Tim McCarthy is a …. trusted honourable man and so we have every right to believe in the veracity of the RNS”.

Montmuzard - thanks.

Doesn't exactly look like they're top billing.

But you never know, something might come of it. Assuming the attendees haven't read up on Tim's chequered career beforehand.

Where are IMM listed here?

www.fiercejpmweek.com/fiercejpmweekcom/whos-attending

Either they're not - or I should've gone to Specsavers.

Bendipa1 - Sorry, I should have been clearer! I was referring specifically to H&T’s Christmas 2023 retail sales, which came in below forecast.

Hardboy - thanks for your comments. I completely agree the higher than expected pledge book growth is a positive, longer term. My reason for listing it under the negatives is that it won’t significantly boost profit for the FY just ended. Which probably helps explain today’s relatively muted SP response, with some investors being unwilling to look much beyond the end of their noses!

The impact of NI & minimum wage increases was partly quantified in today’s TU. But the percentages you quote would only apply if the company took no steps to mitigate. Which I’m sure won’t be the case. Guess we’ll just have to wait for a bit more meat on the bones there.

Sheffieldowls - tricky one, as I don't hold Ramsdens (or follow it as closely as H&T).

At today's prices, over the past 1 & 5 years RFX has outperformed H&T. That said, H&T is currently yielding slightly more, but 'twasn't ever thus.

The reason I went for H&T is that it's the UK's clear market leader. So, I figured, more likely to benefit from economies of scale & greater brand recognition. There has been significant past attrition & consolidation in this sector, so size matters to an extent - at least in terms of likely long term company security.

Given the UK's current economic backdrop, I imagine either company would be a decent place for you to reinvest your divi. But that's just my opinion & shouldn't be taken as firm advice! RFX isn't far off its one year high. H&T is closer to its one year low.

So if you think H&T is due an upwards re-rate following today's TU, I'd go for that. But if you believe RFX will continue to outperform, reinvest your divi there. In your case, the one other reason you might possibly favour H&T over RFX is to diversify slightly, albeit in the same sector. Bit rambling, but I hope this helps.

Whatever you decide, the one thing I'd stress is that neither is a "tuck away & forget" type of share. I've traded H&T several times over the years & have mostly averaged down with success. So you do have to keep an eye on things & act if the SP feels grossly over- or undervalued at any given time. Good luck!

This morning's RNS largely reflects patterns H&T has experienced in recent years (higher loan redemptions in spring, customers favouring lower pricepoints on retail jewellery etc.)

I'm relieved there were no major unexpected downturns - unlike last year - & suspect this will provide a degree of share price support going forward. The economic backdrop should continue to benefit H&T, assuming it can largely mitigate its increased labour & product costs.

Here's my take on today's TU:

POSITIVES:

* c. 26% YOY growth in pledge book capital value - ahead of management expectations

* Overall trading in line with management expectations (no repeat of last year's Christmas retail sales downturn)

* Pre-owned watch market prices stabilising

* Forex revenues progressing & in line with management expectations

NEGATIVES:

* Most pledge book growth came late, so the benefits will mainly accrue next FY

* No more material pledge book growth forecast until third calendar quarter of 2025

* Retail product margins only "slightly improved"

* NI costs expected to rise by £2m from April. As yet, limited clarity on how/how much of this increase can be offset

Wildbunch - you're most welcome. Glad you're so happy with how the last 12 months have gone here.

And good luck with your latest purchase - be it real or imagined.

Morri940 - no news for a year hasn’t exactly done IMM’s share price any favours.

So no news has NOT been good news. At least in this case.

Totalwealth - I wouldn’t base ANY investment decision on TW hearsay.

If he knows Sweetbiotix will get a big name deal in 2025, that means SOH has leaked market-sensitive information to him, which is a criminal offence.

So either it’s total BS, complete guesswork masquerading as fact, or SOH is facing 2025 in the slammer. Take your pick.

I agree with others about the Dr Morpen deal sounding promising. And I still hold out hope that at some point something good will come of Sweetbiotix.

But Sweetbiotix launch timing is still anyone’s guess - assuming it ever happens. Unless TW has mystic powers. Or SOH has very unwisely blabbed at one of Winnifrith’s weekend p!ss ups. In which case, he stands to lose a lot more than money if investigated.

Bye bye Goldwish168 - filtered.

Didn’t you know - Tim fails pretty much ALL his objectives

GoldWish168 - presumably even you aren’t too thick to realise that “couldn’t resist not buying another £2k” means you DIDN’T buy a thing.

Never mind - back to school soon. One day you might even learn something there.

Goldwish168 - hopefully someone imaginative bought you a lovely pair of socks for Christmas, so you can finally stick a sock in it.

Aquae - I agree the Dr Morepen deal does sound more promising.

But the point the others are making is that we’ve heard it all before. Countless times. And so far, sales forecasts have added an extra nought to reality. And Sweetbiotix remains on the cusp for the umpteenth time.

So let’s just wait & see this time before we all get too excited.

GoldWish168 - you have absolutely no idea & are talking out of your derriere I’m afraid.

Merry Christmas!

Nolupus - agreed.

andy767ag - of course Tim could say things. He promised as much, then appeared to superglue his lips together. Whilst certain info might be commercially/market-sensitive, there’s plenty he could still have done to update us.

I suspect he’s been hugely distracted by Incanthera, which has ironically (or perhaps predictably given he’s in charge?) now also blown up in his face.

The man’s a liability frankly.

Elrico - the professional way to update shareholders is via RNS.

Or when a CEO presents directly via a webinar, inviting shareholder questions, both in advance & in real time.

Providing (s)he then actually answers all their questions, without just cherry-picking the easy ones.

Anything else (broker notes / Proactive interviews / Lemming the Lemon “you-squeeze-my-pips-I’ll-squeeze-yours” fireside chats) is of very little value IMHO. They’re really no more than paid for advertorials, if you will, which rarely do anything to unearth the true state of the company concerned.

You clearly don’t get that elrico. But seeing as it’s your “business”, why would you? Nor, it seems do some of your fan base - sorry, subscribers - who appear quite happy to pay someone who mostly just tells them what they want to hear.

Guess it just goes to prove the saying that a fool & his money are easily parted..

FriedmannSowell - spot on.

The difference couldn’t be wider between legitimate critical challenge & cosy mutual back-patting.

Any investor who can’t work out which of the above refers to the FT & which describes Lemming-the-Lemon really shouldn’t be buying ANY shares.

As for the Lemming’s latest diatribe in response, it merely shows a nerve was touched. And that the Lemming should get out more, instead of wasting time blowing his own trumpet & defending the indefensible. Maybe make that your New Year resolution.

Elrico - “what’s truly tragic here is that you’re pulling a snake oil salesman Del Boy act, thinly disguised with stick on beard in the hope we’ll think you’re Santa. Honestly, it's embarrassing. Anyone with half a brain cell agrees.”