Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Repression - RFX is higher - significantly so - over the past year (+60%).

As an ex-H&T shareholder, it's been on my radar ever since I received the proceeds from that takeover deal. But I suspect H&T's takeover led to a speculative SP premium here which I feel isn't fully justified.

Don't get me wrong, with gold and silver prices as they are, I do think RFX will continue to do well. But it was indicative that RFX paid a special dividend recently, which they said was partly down to the current exceptionally buoyant gold price.

In their latest results presentation, they also implied their in-house modelling suggested gold prices potentially retracing within the current FY (though of course nobody knows - they might rise even further!). But you only have to look at a long term gold price chart to see that no commodity moves up in a straight line forever. And the corrections - when they come - are rarely anticipated and never gentle.

For now, I think its SP has got a bit ahead of itself, since I regard the chances of any takeover as highly unlikely. Short term at least. And I think the SP still has an element of speculative froth priced in.

For me, it would need to be around 15% below current levels before I started buying. That may well mean I never hold RFX. For existing shareholders, I kind of hope so!

I was generally able to judge H&T's true value pretty accurately, adding & reducing several times when I felt the SP was either under- or overdone. Of course, I didn't always get it right, but more often than not I benefitted from occasionally trading it. RFX is a slightly different beast, so I may be oversimplifying things by applying similar criteria to it as H&T. But to me it just feels very fully valued right now.

Ezhik - assuming the $4m annualised turnover per well materialises (let's very conservatively say $3m post-tax etc), that's $12m profit in year 1. So approx £9m profit v. a £51m mcap.

Doesn't seem a very high valuation to me, particularly when several more Rudyard wells will be added in year 2 & beyond (not to mention the as yet untapped opportunities elsewhere).

Yet you still think "SP might not do a lot though, I'm not expecting much". Care to explain why?

FS - agreed.

Bonneville - surely there's a flaw in your argument.

You say "There has been no follow up P3 trial at a higher dose because they know the non responders will continue to not respond."

I don't think that's a logical conclusion. There may have been a number of non-responders precisely BECAUSE the dose was too low last time, as well as the steroid treatment muddying the placebo group results.

Can’t expect a new tweet/RNS every day.

I guess some are impatient because we used to get regular tweet videos (often containing quite insignificant updates), but have had nothing of substance for a short while now.

Perhaps that’s just an indication the next announcement’s a biggie?

DropD - I think we’re agreed each well will be “cranked up to target production as quickly as possible “

Where we perhaps differ slightly is on exactly what timescale will be possible. I sincerely hope you’re right, but I still very much doubt all 4 wells will be at full throttle by Christmas. Let’s not forget they haven’t even begun production yet & we’ve only 90 shopping days left!

Whilst better than nothing, Director share buys totalling just £20k or so are hardly going to “influence investor sentiment” long term.

Only news of a Sweet launch &/or significant sales & profit growth elsewhere will do that.

Kaeren - at the end of the day, EVERYBODY'S guessing.

And I'd suggest my guess is as good as yours - or anyone else's come to that.

At least you & I back up our thoughts with rational argument (unlike a few on here I could mention).

IHNC - I also never said there was anything that "points to 4 wells not running this year".

I said "it's unlikely the four current ones will all be full throttle this side of Christmas" which is totally different. And I stand by that.

The company's own 15 July RNS suggested as much, stating "a preference for a soft-start configuration to reduce fuel usage and improve control during initial startup."

Sure, it's open to interpretation what they mean by "initial start up". But given production hasn't started yet, I think it's a fair assumption we won't have all four wells at full throttle this side of Christmas.

IHNC - I haven't called anyone "petty for having an opinion".

I just called out someone who falsely accused me of "selling on the high yesterday".

I'm with norfolkslim on this - let's be grown up enough to agree to disagree sometimes. And if someone's posts constantly wind you up, just filter them. Simples.

As soon as anyone tries to debunk the more outlandish SP projections for Hex, others rush in to accuse them of deramping or selling.

It's quite pathetic really. If you believe that 5x SP nonsense will actually materialise any time soon, I suggest you mortgage your house and back up the truck. Let me know when you've done it.

As I've posted countless times, I remain positive about Hex and have bought seven times - most recently in June & July. I've sold only a small fraction of this total, in one transaction early on (and that sale, with hindsight, was a mistake).

But I do still think you have to be realistic about the prospects here. And for the reasons I gave (with company-issued figures to back it up), 5x current SP any time soon is simply unrealistic.

Valju - No.

And no.

"When we realise material exits, the Group's goal is to distribute a portion of the proceeds as a special dividend to our shareholders."

Still waiting Cliff.

Looks like your first "material exit" may be from Belluscura when it goes bust. How much will their "special" divi payout be I wonder? The words "zero" and "pence" spring to mind.

Kaeren - possibly. but even if you're right, it'd take time for any of those potential extra wells to come into full production.

Just as it's unlikely the four current ones will all be full throttle this side of Christmas.

KCE32 - whether or not they could find alternative employment easily & quickly is irrelevant.

They - more than anyone - have the inside track on exactly how the company's doing and at what stage any potential bidders might be. If they honestly felt the shares were heading south - let alone anywhere near 1p as Cheapsharesboy suggested - do you really think they'd voluntarily sacrifice part of their salary for more options?

Course not!

Beesty - WRONG on all counts. See my reply to Lord Naz.

I am invested here and I don't post lies or misinformation.

Other than that, you're spot on.

LordNaz - Wrong. Guidance was for c. $4m per well BEFORE TAX.

Bigbench - there’s hope. Then there’s fantasy.

Once fully productive - which will take time - by the company’s own guidance, four wells would generate around $12-14m profit annually after tax. So around £10m.

Given Hex’s current market cap of £55m, a 5x SP rise would imply a market cap of around £275m. Ain't gonna happen. Least, not for years.

Pensioninvestor - "Just basic maths reveal this will 5x on full production of the wells in play at the very least."

Suggest you go back to school on that basis.

Sure, we can expect an uplift on production & offtake news. But 5x current SP from just four known wells in play at the moment. I think not.

OSD - bless you my child.

And may the Lord have mercy on my hacker.