Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Who cares who's holding? Personally, it's only the share price that concderns me.

Veteran10 - therein lies the problem. There's currently a total disconnect between TEK's share price and the nominal sum of its parts. Because investors see no clear path from IPO to actual value crystallisation. Two of TEK's four holdings have already listed (initially to much excitement & promise of an upwards re-rating in TEK's SP). Meanwhile TEK's price has continued to tumble. The eventual announcement of a holding reduction/divestment - with the funds redistributed to shareholders via a special dividend - is the ONLY thing that'll move the dial here right now.

Dontshootme - I don't actually think the UK's inflation rate is that relevant to SMT (though it could influence UK investor sentiment I guess). America's inflation figure & interest rate trends are both far more critical, given SMT's geographical focus there.

Another thing to bear in mind is that whilst Tesla & Nvidia may represent almost 10% of the total portfolio today, that's AFTER you factor in their vast price rises over the past 6 months. So they probably represented less than 5% of the total portfolio 6 months ago.

Learner01 - the answer is in your question! Tesla & Nvidia comprise less than 10% of the total portfolio. So an average 6 month gain of, say, 160% across those two holdings can easily be wiped out by a 20% loss on the remaining 90%. It's likely the near 30% private equity holdings will have been written down quite heavily in the current investment climate. But these things tend to be cyclical.

Wildbunch - what next rise? It's still going down ATM.

Oscar22 & wildbunch - thanks for your summaries & opinions. My main takeaways from what you’ve said are: 1) Tim McCarthy is optimistic. Who knew! 2) Ph2/3 outcome is at least 3 years away. Do many holders still have that much patience?

DorsetLSE - I'd second that. 1) US indices are still some way below their 2021 pandemic highs. 2) Russia doeesn't appear to be winning the war, though it does look like being an extremely dragged out, volatile affair. 3) Energy prices are stabilising (subject to 2) above). 4) Inflation seems to be past its peak and is falling much faster in the US (more relevant to SMT's share price) than here. Interest rates may well have peaked in the US, which will disproportionately benefit growth / early stage tech & bio businesses. Sadly, rates probably still have a way to go here - mainly because dozy Andrew Bailey took far too long to react to the pressures that were so obviously building.

Caesar - can you point us to ANY firm evidence that Opti is actually "talking to Coca Cola"? It certainly wasn't in the results' RNS. Happy to be proved wrong, though I somehow doubt I will be.

Elonmusky99 - your top of the range Tesla remains on standby. I'm hardly quaking in my boots that I'm going to need to fund it though.

Fela96 - It's rarely sensible to close your mind to something, just because it's "new to me." And I'm frankly bored arguing each & every point with you. You appear to be one of those people who always has to have the last word. So this'll be my last word to you for some time, as I've simply run out of patience. If you Google CTY's share price from July 1993 to now, you'll see it has LESS THAN TREBLED IN THIRTY YEARS. Of course, this ignores the annual 5% or so yield, which as I've said before is significant & mustn't be overlooked. However - dividend notwithstanding - check out SMT over the same timeframe and you'll see it has INCREASED ALMOST EIGHTEENFOLD. Even when using today's bombed out share price as the current comparator. And it's paid a dividend all that time - albeit at a far lower rate than CTY. That's why CTY makes less sense as an investment than SMT. Simples. Though I'm sure you'll find a reason to disagree still. But I really wouldn't bother if I were you, as I won't respond.

SENATOR1 - a fund that targets a mixture of growth plus a small regular dividend stream offers a belt & braces approach. Sure, if there was no yield you could always sell part of your holding if you needed income. But in SMT's case, you may not want to right now, given the bombed out share price. Unless you anticipate things will only get worse of course! My entire SMT holding is in ISA format. So the CGT issue doesn't arise. Nor is any dividend income taxed. FELA96 - the question isn't whether I - or anyone else - could generate a higher return than SMT. Many investors rely on regular dividends to supplement their retirement income. They need that to live on, not to reinvest. And two points on investing in stocks with much higher yields than SMT. Firstly, the higher the yield, the less "old world" & "low volatility" these alternatives become. Secondly, most investors - even "mature" ones! - WILL invest in a mixture of both growth & higher yielding "value" stocks anyway to spread the risk. Bunging it all into high yielders is just another form of putting all your eggs in one basket. One final point: the Nasdaq index - which you're so fond of quoting - pays out a modest dividend itself: hTTps://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

AquaeSulis01 - Fair points (which I admit I hadn't been aware of, so thanks for that!). However, fact remains if they're potentially exposed to bad debts almost as high as their annual sales, shouldn't they be factoring?

I disagree with the dividend comments. For one, SMT is not a private equity portfolio. It only has a minority portion of its total investments in private equity. And for many investors, especially those nearing / in retirement, yield is an important consideration alongside growth. I didn’t see any on here complaining about dividends when SMT’s share price was also rocketing. I for one would be far less inclined to stick with my holding if they ditched this policy.

AquaeSulis01 - you say “apart from the bad debt provision”, but I really don’t think you can dismiss that aspect so easily. The provision was ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS, given Opti’s paltry annual sales and suggests totally inadequate financial controls. Which is all rather worrying.

Yup, I’ll bet him a top of the range Tesla Opti’s share price isn’t in the teens within 4 weeks.

Dividends can make a huge difference to performance over time (even at SMT's very modest levels). Just as fees (which in SMT's case are well below industry average) can have a hugely corrosive effect - even if they look harmless enough at just a small fraction of one percent.

Lambo222 - is that the same placing you talked about this morning? Or are we now looking at a DOUBLE placing? I get so confused with all those placings you keep mentioning. Especially when you forecast a nailed on 50% (rise - or was it fall?) just days ago.

Please PM me to clarify ASAP at my current address (Under the Railway Arches, Aldi Road, Peckham). I could really do without having to spend too many more nights here, especially as the rodents have now chewed through my sleeping bag.

Thanks

You put your right leg in (the hole in your sleeping bag)

Your right leg out (the other hole in your sleeping bag)

In, out, in out

You shake it all about

You scare away the rodents

And you turn around

That's what it's all about

Fascinating. However, my tealeaves show it stagnating for the foreseeable.

Fela96 - two main reasons this discussion's going nowhere:

1) Everyone except you is now sick of it

2) SMT remains one of your largest holdings, despite your blindingly obvious preference for a Nasdaq tracker

So I suggest we all just put it to bed & move on.