Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
I had a quick listen again. 1.8bn unweighted pipeline, 821m weighted pipeline over 5 years.
He mentioned in the video that the weighted project prospects / pipeline was 800m. I can’t remember the gross value nor the number of year he referred to.. Have a look at the video again and it will be clear. He did not explain the details. I might have another look tonight. Even if you half that 800m and apply a reasonable margin then the 1.5m cash is on the very very low side to support this market cap..
Current Market Cap is around 11m.
Using a very conservative PE ratio of 8, then all that would be needed from H&W would be about 1.5 cash generation per year to justify the current Market Cap.
Even after the share price move in recent days, this has to be bargain basement cheap. The weighted pipeline (I know we don't have any details) is 800m over 5 years (I think JW said on the last video)
This excludes possible Islandmagee upside after the ML decision.
Just putting it out there for reflections.
Interesting TTNY. Had a look myself. Other than wind ward decommissioning there must be opportunities with obsolete rigs, ships etc for recycling. With broken supply chains at the moment + oil it could indeed be interesting. Also was wondering back to some aspects presented by Arun at the December 2018 shareholder meeting where he commented that gas storage and trading is more about volatility in prices than the actual price. Certainly the value proposition in the face of volatility is upon is for time to come.
Very few sells. I think you were right about the bottom. Have said it before but at very different levels. Am happy with these daily moves off the very low levels. Up >40% in recent days. without new news.
I'm 36.8m
What approximate percentage do you think the top 20 holders have?
Blairpeach,
I should have been clearer.
I meant your comment did not seem quite right.
Anyway, time will tell.
Doesn’t quite seem right to me.
Would it not be possible to use the H&W assets as collateral for the 1m debt?
As Warren Buffet once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Right now there is an awful amount of fear going around. The current market cap is probably lower than the Assets acquired at H&W but that being said, without any significant orders an impairment of those asset values will be needed. If the Eu funds offset the Costain loan with a bit left over what other assets are there? I might sound fearful but without a confirmed order book and without a ML there is quite a lot to be read into Warren Buffet’s quote. I do believe a rather steady stream of small bits of news would be better that sitting in silence until hopefully a big bit of news comes along. `just putting it out there for discussion.
Thanks Ban4118. I really appreciate the notes and your attention to details. I have always been convinced and remain so. Us LTHs have been hanging in through thick and thin - mostly thin as regards the share price ( unfortunately) but given the progress made on various fronts recently I once again am strongly believing that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train. I do believe the next piece of concrete news will be the receipt of the Eu funds.
Don’t forget there are +600m shares of the 2bn placing that are not accounted for from the TR1s of the IIs. Someone got those shares at .03. There has been no news at all about who took the 600m shares in a placement. My guess is that whoever got the +600m will be part of the constant selling. Also a bit confused as to how and to whom those +600m were issued. All this said, I am a believer in the business proposition overall and remain positive. Would just like the funny happenings to be clarified.
If / when the orders come in to H&W, which in my view they will, and using 2015 financial results and applying a realistic PE ratio then one can start to understand the potential market cap if just the one subsidiary kicks in.
Thanks Si. Now you can tell I am having a good vacation. Anyway, anyone know where the other 600m went? BTW, greetings from Lagos Portugal. 20C and ready for golf.
If I added the TR1s correctly the 6x IIs took about 1.1bn of the 2bn placing. Does anyone know who took the other 900m? Maybe my maths is a bit dodgy at this time of year.
Very happy to see this appointment being made earlier than anticipated. Experienced professional that surely will add a lot of value. Roll on 7 February.
Narrow spread now. I topped up with another 3.226m this morning early.
I have belief in the projects. What I don’t feel comfortable about is the way the news flow has been handled. I am sure JW knew before this morning that he would delay FID - or was it the vote in parliament that changed his mind - must have been fast typists if that was the case. How long can one hold on to pertinent information before RNSing? It still sticks in my throat that 18 months ago we were told all licenses and permits we in place. 12 months ago we were told there was a better equity deal on the table and he was passing over the first 3. I believe in the projects and it is the handling of information that gets me. It is as pure and simple as that.
Fully agree. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush ..... unless there was never a bird in the hand!