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Fully agree Nobby. The approval process run by DAERA has been rather "odd" to say the least without any deadline for the decision ever being set. Mr Poots did say they would answer by (this) year end and I believe we are owed an update.
Fully agree Tango, that is indeed exciting. I expect that recent work on Oceanex and now Stena Europe are bigger contracts than the first of the 20 through the yard since the acquisition. Building experience, credibility and references was surely part of the plan leading to bigger & better things to come. I did read somewhere that cruise-liners need to be certified before the sailing season starts in April - must be an opportunity there with some of the bigger names. Also something has to come in the renewables sector. I did note that H&W are recruiting for a Contracts & Commercial Lead. There is light at the end of the tunnel and its probably not an oncoming train.
It is all very still at the moment. No news. Share price holding at 52 week highs despite very low volumes and no news (on any channel) since the flurry over 2 weeks ago. I don't know when the news will come and given the very strong pipelines in most H&W segments, it promises to be transformative for this small company. The ML decision was promised before year end - by Mr Poots some time back I believe. I believe that patience will be rewarded.
Similar pattern today - chunky buys but no real movement in the price. Maybe we will see another significant after hours sell pop up.
Yes, the next note would almost certainly follow the release of the annual report. Given that the majority of action through the yard has happened after the balance sheet date, it will be interesting to see the annual report. Probably will be more to take home from the Chairman's and Directors reports than from the Financial Statements. 2 months in a row of cash breakeven for Cruise & Ferry.
Anyone have a chance to read the new Cenkos research paper that was published this morning?
It can be downloaded for free after registering with research tree via the Cenkos website.
Any ideas on what value could be considered material? Just wondering. Would a 5m contract be material, or even 10m? I am not sure. Something closer to 20m would surely be material. Thoughts?
Stena Europe returns today. Unconfirmed reports indicate that this might for up to 8 weeks for a deck replacement. Nice steady work for the dry dock. Helps cash flow low, builds experience and credibility through another successful reference. Cruise & ferry segment doing very well with more to come.
TTNY, well spotted. Cruise & ferry and renewables will contribute significantly to near term revenues. Defense will most probably be huge in the future but we need the other segments in the near term to bridge the gap. The VOX interview gives another very good outline of the size and complementary nature of the segments and their pipelines.
Great posts on the recent announcements by the PM. Bodes very well for INFA. Let us not forget that there is also plenty of work in the other segments such as cruise & ferry, renewables etc. Cruise & ferry has been good so far with around 20 smaller contracts so far and something bigger will come on the back of these successes - no doubt. This coupled with military paints a very welcome picture of a bright future. I think of IMSL and pending ML as the joker up the sleeve.
Hi Si, on your 17h38 post, I do believe we stand a snowballs chance of getting the ML. My point was merely that the speculation around IMSL and the ML is confusing for the overall valuation. If the 2 were separate it would be easier to understand. One would be a pure speculative punt and the other far less so.
NigelHeamoglobin, agree. I have posted about this before and will remind again that we are dealing with the dichotomy of a start up that is 159 years old. The IMSL gas storage legacy is the start up and shipbuilding is 159 years old. It is an interesting company to try put a value on. This being said, even if we ignore IMSL in its entirety we only need about 3m free cash flow to justify the valuation. With the (dare I say it) probable large contracts coming in multiple sectors of the H&W portfolio I think we can all calculate that there is tremendous upside. IMO, there is market (valuation) confusion due to the dichotomy of the subsidiaries within the INFA group.
It was Sun, Sea, Sky
Missed this one yesterday. Nice to be in the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/65e38147-003a-4e2e-ac6d-1e072e1447be
Could be a few triggers but unless they happen together in decent reasonable proximity the full value will not be realised. No particular order 1. Obviously the ML triggers the IMSL value, off-take agreement and % project equity sale. 2. Bigger contract on the ship building side e.g. FSS. 3. Something on the renewable energy side (with Navantia?) . 4. Financial update that shows financial security and no further dilution is needed (wonât be in the coming annual report as that wonât show the majority of H&W activity we have recently seen). I believe we first need proof of going concern before a bank will lend against the fair value of the assets. 5. A few of the preceding items at the same time will be suboptimal for the SP as they will be too much for the market to digest. Slowly slowly catch a monkey!
Donât think there will be news in the morning. Would love it if there was, but I donât see it happening. I do believe it will come in due course. Tomorrow I think we can expect a strategy update, some financial projections and some insights but no new news. Too many things out of direct control. A dip is only bad if one doesnât believe in the medium to long term. I would love to be proven wrong. Current valuation of the company is circa 25m and with IMSL valuation, H&W segment pipeline, government âsupportâ this is way under valued. We only need future cash flows of 2.5m to 3m per annum to justify the current value.
Spud, yes that was it. Did a quick search and also found it on page 19 of the investor presentation from 5 December 2018. I remember flying across to the UK for that one - thatâs why it rang a bell. I expect the valuation remains pretty much in tact. Possibly even upside given the reduced construction costs with H&W fabrication and more volatility in gas prices. Mmmm.
I am not worried about hydrogen storage. The value proposition for gas storage is so good I would be more than fine with that. 18 or 24 months back there was a report showing a valuation of more than 200m based on the discounted future cash flows. I remember they used different discount factors but which ever way it was looked at the valuation was massive. Obviously all that is worthless without a ML. We are in the hands of DAERA for a proposal and the ministers for an approval. Without that it is worth zero. I do believe one day the ML will come followed by a nice juicy return. Anyone remember who published that old report? I remember a SP projection of 11.6p when we were languishing at 0.6p. This was of course pre the 100:1 consolidation and pre the dilutions for the 2 x acquisitions.
Hi Lottie, regarding your 14h32 post, despite currency moves, let us remember that the countries you refer to also offer very large state protection schemes to increase international competitiveness. If they decide to go for something, then they go for it and nothing stands in their way. Companies from the West canât compete and need to find niche offerings - unless the government can find ways to help within the myriad of self imposed legislation.
Stokey12, I noticed that the Oceanex Avalon is not listed in the schedule from the end of October to December. Maybe youâre right.