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BTW, there is a new Cenkos research paper available.
Exactly stokey1. I did some calculations before on the potential order pipeline in the published report by Cenkos and with the estimated win rate and industry average EBITDA and PE, the valuation is impressive indeed. Not easy to put a value on the pending ML and FSRU but one can safely say we are way undervalued right now. This might not give the overnight returns that many wish but from a medium to longer term there is value to be had regardless of the recent dilutions.
Radders, tomorrow and Thursday are still coming
Despite the shipyards being old, they in effect are start-ups. Aren’t all start-ups “jam tomorrow”. Would be nice to have news of large contracts, would be nice to have the ML granted and it would be nice to have something more concrete on the FSRU. We can chose to live with what we have, quite well laid out by Dawski, accept H&W as a 159 year old start-up and wait for the jam - or we can sell. Simple choice. My choice is to wait, and holding 666k shares it is quite a choice. Bring on the jam I say - hopefully tomorrow! Cheers all, onwards and upwards.
At the last raise there were about 300m short as well with no RNS. Don’t know where those went.. Asked a few times on here but there was nothing concrete.
I have quite a decent holding and am beyond annoyed with the lack of news through formal channels. Ridiculous.
Tango, I am on your side and fully agree the information from the company has been virtually non existent. Was only trying to help with the scraps of information I come across.
There are a few numbers in the latest Cenkos paper from 10 July. Quite promising in my mind. You can access it for free after registering with Cenkos research section on their website.
I expect that there is a larger contract coming soon (2 or 3 weeks max.) Needed the working capital in place to secure the contract. Possibly an expanded scope of work on the Vikings. Could be a breakthrough.
The 5m sells on Friday were not sells. Share trades listed on LSE are very misleading.
Only Viking Sun has left. It is now just west of the Isle of Man. Both Viking Sea and Viking Sky remain. Stena Europe is in the dock.
https://www.niferry.co.uk/video-stena-europe-in-belfast-building-dock/
The 700k per month is the cash running costs Of H&W. More than half of this is for labour. Also included are maintenance capex, rent and a variety of other costs including utilities, business rates, insurance, and site security.
Contract value at 2.5m
Quoted on LinkedIn by Stephen Mills (H&W Director of Cruise and Ferry). "Getting busy here at H&W Belfast with Stena Europe about to leave the Main Dock and three cruise ships in for repair and maintenance, Anticipating a busy few months ahead with commercial, cruise & ferry." projects.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6684004092764856320/
Seems we have a large holder selling out slowly in 2 or 3m tranches in recent days. Not sure if it is an II, but probably. I believe that the last II has now fully sold out - they seemed to be happy to sell all the way down to 0.33p. When they had sold out then the price jumped. The current seller seems to stay above 0.40p. There was 3.7m sold earlier today and also a few big sells towards the end of the day yesterday. If the seller stays around and no new II or significant PI comes on board, then the price will remain depressed. Let's not confuse corporate objectives with the value of the company.
The publicly available research report showed a cash flow of approximately 10m from May 20 to April 21 and another approx 10m in the following 12 months. Given the recent orders received and positive outlook, I think these numbers could very well be reasonable. If we value H&W at 8 or 10 times cash generation, then this would give a value of between 80m and 100m - significantly above where we are today. Even with a conservative scenario of only 5m annual sustainable cash generation this share is undervalued by more than half. This excludes any potential upside from IM and the FSRU. Perhaps the ML for IM is getting in the way of a proper valuation of H&W. Just putting it out there.
When something is as undervalued as this share, it has to to up sometimes.
Anyone think we can hold in the 0.40s today? For me the cruise liner news on Monday is not just a one off but more of a longer term signal that the business influx is sustainable going forward. Hope the market sees if the way I see it.