Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Current market cap is only 25m. At a very conservative PE of say 8 to 10 time, then only 2.5m to 3m free cash flow is needed per year to support this valuation. 17 ships through the yard so far in a short space with bigger contracts to follow. Renewables sector will deliver in the next 3 or 4 months and then there is the probable / possible gas storage. Not hard to figure out that 25m is rather low given the probable future cash flows.
Let's hope so. We know there is a loan, we know there are 8 ships of which the first 2 will be built in the UK. Would be more efficient to have both built at the same yard. How many yards can handle that?
Maybe something will come our way. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-ukraine-navy/ukraine-secures-1-25-billion-from-uk-to-build-military-vessels-idUKKBN26S1SM
Tango and jfk, I also find the silence a bit odd when thinking about the past number of comments when similar events happened. Could be that we are just tired of living under the wet blanket that DAERA has thrown over us by taking more than 6 months to reach a proposal. Maybe we are just too busy watching ships come in and go out while we wait patiently for some bigger jobs. Whatever the reasons for the silence on the gas market considering world events, we do know the external market remains favourable and the volatility in prices bodes well for the storage business model.
Thanks Stokey12. If you checked on the company website then it is outdated i.e. before the last placing.
Does anyone have any ideas about who took the billions of shares in the recent placing? There were a few RNSes about holding changes and I cannot get them to add to anywhere near the placement. It is even possible that so many new shareholders each took less than 3%. Was the same with a previous placement where 600m shares were basically missing from sight.
It is a top team. Now they just need to convert the strong order pipeline into contracts. I believe they will do it. They are driven and capable to build this into a large company. Patience is a virtue many are battling with. I am in for the long run. ML news must be coming soon - again!
It is so quiet that it could well be a bank holiday
I would certainly hope so. Quite a bit of positive momentum, but the proof of the pudding is always in its eating. Seems to be many “loose” shares. About 600m were not accounted for in the RNSes after the first big placing and I could not even calculate anything after the most recent placing and the ensuing RNSes. Could not get close with Trying to calculate the TR1s back to the number of shares issued. Any thoughts anyone?
I think if this level of work continues cash flow break-even will be close. 25m revenue is needed to break even at H&W Belfast, 20m at Appledore. We need a quite lot of these smaller jobs to get there but good progress is being made. I think the Stena contract was around 2.5m - it was quoted in the Stena announcement of the contract with H&W. Oceanex Connaigra is most likely around the 500k mark (given the time frame of the docking). We need continued steady work to get to the 25m mark. One or two medium contracts will push us over the line with ease. Given the ongoing recruitment I believe those medium sized contracts must be pretty certain - would be irresponsible of management to hire if the probability of the work was not very high / almost certain. I don't believe this management team is irresponsible. There are pretty decent financial forecasts available for free on the Cenkos website after you register on the research page.
If it is a decent sized job then there needs to be space as the Stena Superfast VIII and Stena Superfast VII are due into the dry dock now that the first Stena has departed.
I understood that after Stena Scotia left then the Oceania Connaigra would move around and replace it in the dock.
Why would the surge in hiring start if there weren’t already some medium sized contracts secured? I don’t for one minute believe INFA would be hiring they they are if they didn’t already have contracts secured or have very good indications that contracts would be secured. It takes time to recruit and onboard new staff in such numbers. Something is known that we don’t yet see - the evidence is in plain sight though!.
I think the land where the businesses operate is a separate parcel that is not included in the asset purchase. Otherwise, I am sure it would have been mentioned.
I think the NIFerries page said it would be there temporarily for a few days until the Stena Scotia leaves. Then it would move around.
Let's not forget that STENA SUPERFAST VII and STENA SUPERFAST VIII are also to dry dock at Harland & Wolff before the end of September. I wonder if we can also get a marine license by the end of September.
Stokey12, we can surely hope for profit but I think you might be a little optimistic. For me the first thing is cash break even. Depreciation is not really relevant. I hope for cash break even and then anything after that is gravy. First big milestone for me. I think JW once said 25m revenue would result in the cash break even point considering fixed and variable cash outflows. Given weighted pipeline, new news, move from smaller to medium contracts this is very doable. Also a steady revenue stream builds credibility in the market and will open doors to debt financing.
While we wait for bigger contracts to start, at least it seems there is a steady flow of smaller contracts to keep the yard ticking over whilst building credibility in the market. OCEANEX CONNAIGRA will be the new arrival any day now when the Stena Scotia departs. https://www.niferry.co.uk/canadian-visitor-returns-to-harland-wolff-ahead-of-further-stena-work/
Probably in response to a strange tweet yesterday. This outfit means business.
Stokey, it is free. You need to register once on the Cenkos page and then you have access to all reports. This is the 3rd one. The first was the most comprehensive and well worth a read - 40+ pages if I remember correctly with details of weighted project pipeline by segment etc. Well researched. I am not able to share it.