Member Info for Longish

'contracted order book'
When valuing aml, thre probabilities must have improved with Boris's back to work using cars. Ford on the news tonight reinforcing the message but with due dilligence. Sentiment is improving

LoL LoL..mine in the bottom drawer labelled drawdown pension income because div stocks are gone for 12 or 18 months. Bond bubble going to burst at some point. TLW is a beautiful recovery stock.

Saudi needs $80 oil to offset big declines in financial sector, tourism, property and generally to balance their budget. One more thing on the upside!

Will be interesting to see how TLW price behaves.
A few weeks ago we needed 35p to reenter the ftse 250. At 1st May we needed c40p. While we might not get back into the ftse250 until oil prices have recovered, tlw may get there without much delay as its fcf @$35 breakeven is so much lower than chevron, shell etc and incremental production/sales should now roll straight through to the bottom line.

and a few shell..small top ups..

I opted for a leveraged long brent etf and up 17% at the close. With all oilies dependent on higher prices, now must a great time to go long on brent? TLW in the bottom drawer for now.

I think powell and lagarde got everyone worrying today and good reason. We know US valuations are skewed to technology underpinned by everyone elses economies (gdp)...
I guess the imf, oecd, wto, world bank, ecb, fed, boj et all will agree on another nominator and denominator backed by printing unlimited monies......e=mc2 or c= the square root of e/m where c is the speed of light development of a cv vaccine

Brent
Jun 19.19
Jul 22.41
Aug 25.11
Sep 27.17

'Anyone else disappointed'
Relieved they managed a sale at all, but yes, was expecting £1.5/£1.6bn.
Div should be safe..

TLW has been in the top 2 for weeks...

"I don't want to sound cynical'
I know what you mean but Trump is also saying its different this time vecause he has his own energy and doesnt have ships to protect in the area this time round. Saudi, Bahrain etc of course want the US 5th fleet in the area...all at a cost to the US....One thing for certain is we get a deal or we get a war.

'Do you feel any potential oil price drop has already been factored into the share price'
I think if oil drops it wont be by as much as last months contract and all oilies SPs wont drop as much. Generally less swaps, wider spreads etc will mean less volitility. So SP could be soft if oil price is soft ad for BP et al. Directionally though up imo.

Nice post Slift.

I guess it comes down to risk and how you see tlw.
Q1 $75m +ve earnings, Q2 maybe (conservatively) breakeven due to supply demand imbalances, Q3 and Q4 (imo ) +ve...
..and H2 +ve because Riyadh needs $80 oil to balance its budget! Having spent sometime working with in ME, trade culture literally places goods in your hands leaving the western etiquette to work out how to refuse... (oil tankers on the coast of US...and why would the US refuse?).

Regarding the US, the weekend FT points to 'free market rules' versus small shale producers who say large rivals are picking up assets on the cheap (in our case TLW/Total?).. so what should the US do?. Tariffs on oil imports, tax credits or US buy Saudi crude? In 2015/16, shale producers outlasted the Saudi price war by cutting 50% from costs. Speculators underwrote a new phase of growth as OPEC cut supply and US production leapt by 4m bpd in 3.5 years...but the FT says, that success masked Wall Streets 'disenchantment with a sector prioritising output growth over profitability'. So cutting costs is that much harder now ie ' the US is not cutting fat, its cutting meat and bones'...Exxon and Chevron et al will pick up cheap assets like Total has picked up Uganda.

So concentrate on producers that can survive the meltdown (TLW) and clean up if the OIL rips higher? Well Riyadh and Moscow still want market share over shale and Trumps involvement has killed antitrust legislation in Congress to kill 'NOPEC'! The FT concludes Russia and Saudi wont kill shale, all they can do is change ownership..!

So is TLW changing ownership through death by a thousand cuts, Uganda, Kenya...Africa? IMO no, because the glide path will curve up as oil prices inevitably rise. TLW portfolio of (risk) assets is sufficiently diverse to withstand these forces.
Is TLW hi risk? YES, but with hi levels of potential return...

IMO, the financial fundamentals (the 'rhumb line') are still valid as management continue to deliver against a recovery strategy underpinned by a back to work 'socioeconomic' narrative for oil demand and therefore higher prices.

A definite hold for me. I don't think the 28th contract end will be as severe as last months so TLW should (at worst) be a buying opportunity this week imo

Bernie, I was joking about trump. It was bleach he said would kill cv. Not oil. But he is going to buy 5 years worth of airline tickets to allow government to fly cheaply and support high shale energy prices whilst also taking the cheap oil...

Come on Bernie, your country needs you!

Bloomberg. Apparently the business has never been busier

40p excellent. Sentiment gets a lift from that

Bernie,
How many tankers is that. Apparently there are another 4000 empty vessels according to bloomberg.

Trump is gonna advise the population to drink the cheap oil because it is cheaper than water..!!

'They add value in generating revenue for the years to come. What are your thoughts?'
Now tlw is stabilising and there is a relatively clear financial path through to next year, I think Rahul will have something to say about where he wants to take tlw. The current strategy is a financial formula that more or less resolves any material uncertainty this year and into next year. Rahul will have his vision and given his background he will take the opportunities that maximise his long term incentive plan. We have to wait for a period after july. In the meantime, additional cash amounts will likely land that have already been actioned imo

Slift, another good post.
'compare to Tullow’s net debt contribution to our Tangible NAV '
I guess nav is historic cost and that cash has been spent. Debt is being paid down and going foward, there are run rate cash operating cost savings that can service a level of debt.
Rahul will need a pot of money if his objectives are more than keeping the lights on. Oil demand supply coming into balance is the principal component imo.

Slift good post. Each TLW delivery against plan must be positively increasing probabilities and the enterprise value. More cash must be increasing the horizon value when interest rates are ultra low for longer. Oil supply demand will balance and we will fly.