Member Info for Longish

'tullow need to raise big $ to stop getting pushed around'
Agree. Dont forget the kenya joint sale with Total could bring in $0.6bn to $1bn for tlw. The development costs have been submitted and the kenyan gov is required to at least pay the tax element to tlw which I guess is included in the $1bn portfolio management initiative. Lots of balls in the air and anyone could land adding confidence, belief, trust in the managements plans

'requotes multiple times '
Yeah same here

'lets ignore saudis pumping oil out the ground at 3$'
Then again, Saudi oil is sat in tankers off the east cost usa at $355k per day per tanker and no insurance..

Topped up a few more. 8p or 14p is like waiting for godot. Ready for it to double or quadruple up but not much hope we can get it so cheap now the dogs have seen the rabbit

36% US drillers now offline
Some buyers in texas offering $2 bl for some oil streams
Lucky we are hedged

May under $15 now
June $23.68
Jul $28.60
Aug $30.75

BTB, airlines must be locking in these prices for years. In the US, presumably underpinned by FED money

RD12, Trump also wants votes and jobs in texas. He will do whatever wins votes and let the market decide until he doesnt want it to.

BTB, you mean if all spot, they use their all hedges because oil price is low going forward?
They say they will do $60 for jan and feb which is similar to the average brent spot over those 2 months?
If term is better than spot, has finance factored that mix into the $35 fcf breakeven calculation?

Read the business update under the rns link top of this page. RBL funding in place and TLW targeting debt reduction YoY

I did top up my wti oil etf on friday. Its performance helps keep me grounded and interested in the odd pricing/
spreads recently I want to understand. As been discussed, it must be a combination of big players/ governments locking in cost hedges and contango/ transport cost arbitrage.
While the price should go down, the spread makes you think it has to go up. Small bets only. Still learning..

Good thinking OIL_RUN...Value.
At its simplest level, value = cash.
A bit more scientifically, the net present value all future discounted cashflows.
Value moves the TLW debate away from price and market value next week or next year, to its Horizon value over its productive life...say next 25 or 30 years based on reserves. A FID announcement will increase TLWs Value.

OIL_RUN, 'There is one key outstanding promise we have yet to see which is raising proceeds of more than $1B through portfolio management'
I am hoping we hear something next Thursday. I guess much is tied to negotiations with strategic partners and government ie what is profit and loss on disposal, what is rolled forward into joint ventures/partnerships/ FIDs and arguments with governments over taxation pre or post production.

open on Monday?

RD12
'I am still waiting for directional change from government'
The thought occurred to me that CV has by chance taken on the role of global regulator. Getting back to work, rules based international trade, feeling of increasing inequality replaced by a sense of local community, familiarity and ownership hand in glove with an aspiration for global welfare and making the world a better place. Everyone commonly motivated..maslovs hierarchy of needs

TLW producing 70k - 80k bopd this year so if it got 1.4% of that 5m, problem solved

Not to be too dark, but surely the number of people going back to work will exceed the number of people dying and consumption will increase at some point?

RD12
'How did you get to those figures mate'

All imo and on the back of an envelope, estimated, etc :-)
Shares in issue 1,409m
Total net assets* at 31 March 2020 est. = (983.6+250)/ 1409m = $0.87 per share
At forex rate $1.24/£ = 70p

*Total net assets estimated:
Net assets per accounts 31 Dec 2019 = $983.6m
Add Q1 2020 estimated earnings (noting revenue is @$60pbl per 27 March strategy report) = $250m
Q1 estimate earnings calculated cash and cash equivalents at end of 2019 $0.3Bn. Add costs no longer in run rate $0.8.Bn eg exploration cost, plant equipment, dividends paid, management cost saving initiatives etc - see group cash flow statement page 100)

Used similar process for the other numbers published by TLW in recent reports and used 1,409m as the denominator
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5815/8636/0065/2019_Annual_Report_and_Accounts.pdf
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4415/8531/3636/2019_Strategic_Report.pdf
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tullow_oil/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=495&newsid=1384175

I caught the low which has me breakeven. If it goes to 7 or 8 again I will quadruple up. 14p? why not 8?.
After writing off $1.3bn exploration costs a few months ago, the net assets are worth 70p. Then there is up to 70p for disposals they are actively working on. Then there is the $1Bn+ Kenya development costs recovery/ fid or some combination of that plus disposals, then there is the hedged revenues this year and next year, the RBL facility underpinning the free cash flow plan at an average of $35 oil (Jan/ Feb $ revenue sold $60) and so on...and we are currently 18p!

Next Thursday the AGM may surprise to the upside. Dotty is on a mission to rebuild trust so I am certain she is not going to disappoint.

Who knows, Samuel might take the Africa business and then Tullow keep the South Americas including those reserves where the exploration costs have been written off eg Carapa and so on..

Screaming long term multiple bagger, maybe multiple bagger on Thursday..

'I honestly think everyone into this share should have at least a basic understanding of how oil markets work.'
I did a stint in a division of BP many years ago. One of the 1st jobs during a series of takeovers was counting the cost of all the forward contracts for which there were no revenues as they stayed in the disposing company..lol.

Spent many years in international telecomms trading so have an affinity..