Member Info for Longish

moving up. $33.17. Given up trying to day trade the oil price. Its just so much easier and more profitable to simply hold TLW imo
https://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-data/commodities-prices/brent

'Any guesses what impact that may have on the SP'
70p per share if cash

The Group's underlying operating costs remain less than $12/bbl, with Ghana operating costs at c.$9/bbl. With the benefit of the Group's hedging policy and production remaining on track within the Group's 70-80 kbopd guidance range, this results in a free cash flow breakeven oil price of c.$35/bbl for the rest of the year.

The breakeven oil price is BRENT c$35/bbl
Bottom of page 124 of the annual report for the detail on commodity price risks and the ppbl
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5915/8515/9217/2019_Annual_Report_and_Accounts.pdf

$33.71
https://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/market-data/commodities-prices/brent

'Tullow is obeying the technicals'
Good analysis JA. I am not attempting to trade. Long term hold

..lol, cashflow management
Read fridays rns

wanting in happy to sell to shorts wanting out. Leave them to it...off for a run

Was expecting 25 on tge open.. still exoecting 35 and 1 piece of news to fill to 45. After that Dotty has to deliver some initiatives imo

In addition to hedging over the next 18 months or so. The long game includes reserves (valued at $1 or $2pb?) and linked to the rbl. A step change in operational efficiency and financial gearing is based on the current strategy of sweating the priority assets and moves tlw up the curve. Then layer in disposals, fids, farmdowns and this gets back to 140..imo

'sentiment of the roadrunner'
Aahh, another week in tullow
https://youtu.be/9SHwwqvBd3E

I will be a leveraged buyer of oil at $10 to boot

'Farmdowns, disposals etc £1bn =70p'
Management team plan to do it. Les has done all the financials in fridays rns. Dotty has work to do on the fids etc

Think 25p is possibke

What makes you think It can go back there?
After write downs to get to a baseline which fridays rns now underpins..
2019 Net assets kust reported are £1bn =70p
Farmdowns, disposals etc £1bn =70p
Total = 140p

'They were selling for $9/barrel just now'
Ouch. Thats really going to hurt those paying for our hedges. TLW could spike again.

EU wants to print more money and market institutions to monetise it. But I think UK insurers will pay the divs and eg auction high interest rate bonds to balance. That links real world 'demonetisation' to the EU asset repurchase programme/ QE and 'what ever it takes' economic philosophy.

Thats my take. Executing against the rebased strategy. Long term hold imo

45p to fill the gap

Such a relief. Well done LGEN

'Moscow would be comfortable with a price of $42 per barrel'
TLW only needs $35 for free cash breakeven on all its operations. Add to this the farmdowns, disposals, and lending against reserves etc and this is going much higher on that glide path