Member Info for Longish

This is not a distresed company. Some challenges but what company doesnt.
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/results-reports-and-presentations

Bloomberg....Doomberg

US will soak up something like 65bn bl for its strategic reserves plus general contango, say 2 or 3 months and back to price rises?

'It is the sale of assets that pay off the 2022 and readjust advance use of the RBL monies used in 2021'
Thats a good post.
We also know kenya gov have been given a bill for £1.6bn for last 6/7 years costs which ordinarily would have been recovered after fid and from production start. And china/ ano buying % of Tullow interest will subsidise Tullows commitment?

'Low oil price'
Dotty is telling us she is hedged and in some counteies her marginal opex cost is less than $10 pbl. Low oil price is a big uncertainty but not a showstopper for quite some time.

A deal is commitment. Financials will sort themselves out after a deal is structured.

Dotty sees government relations as a TLW strategic competancy and African governments need secure oil supply.
Dotty is a BoE non exec so has 'gov credibility'. No reason to disbelieve a deal is possible and we see real progress since mcdades exit. Risky but not hard to hold here for a good period now sp is so low. Any lower and can top up 000's at little cost...

Will dribble in small amounts while waiting and only if oil prices go lower

' we might even see a smile on Dorothy's face,'
I saw her smile when she said the marginal opex cost is less than $10 pbl in Ghana. Numbers starting to come out of the kitchen sink

'Don't need to invest much'
I was going to say same except maybe only dribble in small amount, become boring to shorts whilst waiting for an RNS or 2021 recovery

'but as soon as there's light at the end of the tunnel for want of a better description, I'm sure there'll be a nice recovery.'
Well done Treacle. I haven't been as successful on some drops..
The big issue is being in the market for the big bounce vs missing it if in cash or something else.
Pensioners don't get gilt edged pensions anymore and are caught between a rock and a hard place (if corona don't get them first)
I expect a lot of PIs are nursing big paper losses now especially if in quality ftse companies. Shell/BP down over 50% since January and the US market still looks like its only corrected for the last few 'frothy' years

If I was a business development manager in MCRO I would be talking about secure working from home etc and the roadmap from legacy. This is a watershed moment for the US.

'nothing has changed in assets since then'.
Whats changed is TLW is rightsizing to a financially sustainable operating model. They are 'sweating' the assets. Financial outlook is dependent on oil prices after hedges used, as are all oilies. Cost reductions in the meantime.

Think going concern comment is out of context. Any statutory entity has to pass the 'going concern' test ie able to operate into the forseeable future and TLW does. It was the comment about uncertainty relating to oil/ corona which gave it the wrong connotation. All companies facing that problem. Dorothy didnt deliver a very positive message very well

HH, have you seen the webcast. She is non exec on the BoE so Mark Carney could give us more detail if he on the BB this morning

She's doing good governance and cashflow is under control but at the mercy of the oil price like everyone elses.
CEO appointment will improve sentiment.
One positive news item will lift this from a going concern, able to operate into the foreseeable future, to a higher valuation or trigger TO imo

''Tullow remains fully committed to Kenya, and the board has approved the requisite 2020 budget targeting a Final Investment Decision (FID) at the end of 2020,'' Tullow Oil said in a statement.
The FDI has been pending since mid last year over delays in submission of the Field Development Plan as well as securing Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) licenses for upstream and midstream.
The firm has also been struggling to work with the government to secure access rights to land, water and project financing.
“This slow progress means that the target of reaching FID by year-end 2020 becomes more challenging,” Tullow said
Last week, the London Stock Exchange-listed firm submitted its compensation bill to the government to a tune of Sh204 billion for its six years of oil exploration in the country.
Oil firms recover their exploration costs over the years once production and sale of the commodity start, which in Kenya’s case is planned for 2022.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2020-03-13-tullow-to-proceed-with-kenya-operations/

'Why wouldn't the market react positively to the postponed refinancing'
Coronavirus
'The decision follows in the wake of similar moves by several other companies, which have had to postpone deals as debt prices and borrowing costs have risen'.

https://www.cityam.com/micro-focus-shelves-1-4bn-loan-deal-due-to-coronavirus/

Bad timing pulling the loan refinancing.
On a positive, the largest revenue segment is US and the $ strengthening could help the revenue reporting cycles this year

When do we get a CEO. The webcast was an advertisement for a CEO who can make deals. He wont be bothered by inhouse stuff which Dorothy and team crowed about.
Maybe something soon ..aren't we getting a Ghana Gov update this month?

'Tullow's assets remain robust: we are a low-cost African oil producer, with a strong hedging position, substantial reserves that underpin our business and a high potential exploration portfolio'