Member Info for Longish

Char,
If you retired and have £100k to buy an annuity or invest in Shell and you lived for 25 years in retirement, you could...
a.) Buy annuity income with £100k = c£75k income over 25 years (£5k per annum) and when you die, £2.5k income per annum to your wife till she dies. £100k all gone
b.)Buy Shell and its div income @£25 price per share, dividend income (no growth) = c£145k and when you die, the shares have a value to pass on with various tax benefits

Just have to convince yourself that Shell will be trading in 25 years and paying a dividend. Even 5 years is time for recovery in SP and rebalancing your investment.

Seems like yesterday waiting for 200 to break and buy in...

'There’s still a possibility this is an outright fraud'
No dont think that is so. Its more likely the centre of management control was in the holding company rather than nmc and the rns in november said they were fixing internal control issues. Hence the director exit. It looks like classic private equity vs statutory. How hard they will come down on the directors will be interesting. The share register issue is potentially 6 months in jail alone according to the companies act. All imo

'The idea that they were caught off guard and suffered 'unexpected' margin calls just beggars belief'

They will have pencilled in a sales price in their original offload plan. Presumably it was £12?. I think there is still a 90 and 180 day block on selling their remaining shares?

'Kenya managing director Martin Mbogo confirmed that discussions were ongoing but could not divulge details of the progress. He, however, said a new deal could be sealed by June this year, but added that he was “not at liberty to say with who'.
https://www.nation.co.ke/nationprime/china-turkana-oil-kenya/5279428-5464742-1hh13i/index.html

Sara, thanks for the video link which was interesting. I think the strategic insights are valid. IMO, low interest rates have driven inflated asset values. Central banks talk about a soft landing even and remain 'accomodative' and has led to slow/low gdp growth etc. The growth of corporate debt is consistent witheg the ECB asset repurchase programme which recycles QE into the real economy. High interest rates will reprice risk (opposed to misprice risk currently) and the baby boomer in you video link can buy annuities with high guaranteed rates that they can live on. Solve the problem of equity risk in retirement..

Sara, generally agree re buyback but in this article, mckinsey argue
...'in most cases, buybacks create value because they help improve tax efficiency and prevent managers from investing in the wrong assets or pursuing unwise acquisitions. Only when boards and executives understand the difference between fundamental value creation through improved performance and the purely mechanical effects of a buyback program on EPS will they put share repurchases to work creating value'...
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-value-of-share-buybacks

Not really "50:50"..
I have been holding/ trading from 129 and chased this down. Managed a top up at 65 but still more than £5k down. With oil and and div stocks also being pummeled its risky, thats all. Do think its worth more than 100 if everything is normal

Mistake or good move?..noone knows.. 50:50 gamble imo.

KOH
..'The Company continues urgently to seek clarity from each of Dr Shetty, Khaleefa Bin Butti and H.E. Saeed Bin Butti in relation to their respective shareholdings'..

I agree its speculation, but the system of governance and internal controls within the group and in particular within Fin should not lead to any speculation. Now we are waiting for accounts to confirm. Freeh report wont confirm the statutory financial statements

KOH
On NMC.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NMC/14432003.html

KOH
'Nothing really changed since yesterday'.
A couple of things have changed imo. Restructuring of the holding company proposed that may have implications for how it charges costs and leverages its debt into Fin (private equity model vs Fin statutory profitability) and this morning RNS confirming there is an unknown problem with the directors/ related parties and 'officers' accountability under the companies act.

I guess Finablr will have to renegotiate its cost base with the holding company at arms length

Maybe this is where some of MWs allegations come from. A Holding Company cant trade on its own account, so all the costs get allocated out to subsidiaries. Now Shetty cant put anything through NMC hes forced to restructure debt etc...

Dropped another 5% on top of the exdiv price. That must be for the FIL Ltd order. Can understand a % or so, but 5% is just sticking their hands in your pocket imi

Difficult to lose your customer base if they are brand loyal.
I guess today its the FIL Ltd order. Assume its the £37.2m @1730.60 this morning
https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/about-us/brand-portfolio.html

If a bid, minimum regulatory is circa 2050. Would be a premium on that. 2400 not unrealistic imo

Me neither. Not expert but a scan of the takeover code says (I think), if you have 5% shares and make an offer, it has to be the highest cash price in preceding 3 months. That could be £15+. Anyone?

think the ifrs overlay will be important as that picks up any off balance sheet financing (over and above related party transactins) Suspect Freeh will have to place reliance on the audit report for ifrs. So we want them out one after another and build the SP, maybe they can only come out at the same time..

Jaffjoon, what is the signal tomorrow morning? I am not going to hear you if you hoot like an owl.