Member Info for Longish

shutting down its LOIL and SOIL ETFs. Anyone who used them was seeing huge moves in a day

Still accumulating for same reason Total bought Uganda. Topped up at 22.94. Cash pot waiting for this mythical 2p or even 8p. Bite your hand off for that again.

'Until we get the news '
Don't forget TLW and Total are well progressed selling Kenya too

Priv, 'Dot is not one of em '
Dot is chair of the non exec and hands the ceo role over rahul. Rahul will have to report to the non execs on the plans laid out and take advice, compliance etc
Dot is out now having house cleaned tlw

Turning Uganda on its head. They used [12%] discount rate (14% in the IMF doc). But we currently have ultra low interest rates for longer, and unconstrained monetary policy...

$575m is on average $23m for each year of production,

$23m in perpetuity at, say, 1% = $2.3bn
$23m in perpetuity at 12% = $192m

So we are >$2bn better off with the cash now in an ultra low interest rate environment. Using it to pay down debt must increase the horizon value more than the net asset historic cost..?

'How soon are you predicting 80p?'
Will be in the FTSE 250 and that can only be june or sept. They will build the base with an appropriate reward for the risk ie more investors. Definitely going to ride their wave up but oil demand supply might mean its Sept...Rahul may also bring upside we havent even thought of...aimo

Good day. For 25p you 80p+ net assets and another 35p+ from kenya/ portfolio management on the way.

Topped up a few more..

About 35p and back in ftse250 in june imo. Wealth management funds now putting 5% into energy..

Alternatively sell and spend the money on wine, woman (men) and song. I know what I would rather do LoL

"1.11^10=1/(0.35)'
Got to add costs saved now and next year and the year after etc plus add revenue share when in production.
More like 3 years, maybe 5. Think Les will have got a plan on his glide path. Its not a fire sale.
Ask yourself what is the price of brent in 25 years.

'This deal is worth more then 575million dollars'
Agree. CEOs job is to get the incremental revenues when production starts. FID was originally average $80 and oil now $21. Basically they have hedged production revenues and reserves. I bet in a dcf model it all comes out to the original base case just using a different commercial construct to get cash now. Great deal

There is a clause when production starts. TLW receives additional income if brent is more than $x so may be material performance element in that but cant be valued till production starts. Same as holding the reserves except its 'sold' now

70p target

What a difference a day made
Twenty-four little hours
Brought the sun and the flowers
Where there used to be rain

Now if GS is doing the fid financing, Rahul gonna take us back to 70p imo

Yes we all sell too soon. Have to spend more time talking to r2d2 to build up your resistance

LoL well done John.

We can watch what happens to the right wing extremists in the democratic states in US protesting to go back to work. That will be an indication of how we outturn this year

Worst priced in except Armageddon and then it doesnt matter anyway

on the move up

'It’s all about Brent which right now is shocking'
I am in shock LoL
Uganda got Eurobond money recently so I am expecting funds to find their way to infrastructure and revenue earning projects. Tax may still be an issue but maybe some gets rolled into the FID to when production starts

'Fingers crossed for a decision in Uganda or Kenya. Would be Africas answer to funding shale, protecting jobs etc'
Uganda gov was due to update in March, so news any day.
AGM tomorrow.