Member Info for Longish

Looks good to me

Sustainable free cash flow supports continued deleveraging

Successful resolution to Ghana tax arbitration

Cost efficient Ghana drilling to resume in May 2025

The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO.

Looks good to me

Sustainable free cash flow supports continued deleveraging

Successful resolution to Ghana tax arbitration

Cost efficient Ghana drilling to resume in May 2025

The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO.

Think I remember the kenya FDP was originally based on $80 oil. Maybe confirmation of $80 will trigger an event. $80 oil great for tlw. $70 also great.

So, the arbitration recognises the principals originally established in the petroleum contracts and the recognised process for double taxation relief so that ought not to raise its ugly head again in any arbitration other than to reconfirm established principals and matters of law.

The positive cashflow outlook is sustainable and the tax ruling is a major positive milestone.

Unfortunately the average PI cant participate in the Bonds.

If you want to blame someone for the recent SP, look at Goldman or Pictet or Gussy and Krackhead et al

Lots of moving parts, big and small. Current course, speed and trajectory makes this very attractive.

Page 6 is a good read

NPV Reserves $3.1bn (net to TLW)

NPV coverage ratio 2.6x

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/7917/2742/0753/2024_1H_Reserves_Report.pdf

'He's on about £1.2M per year so that could be why he bothers a little.'

LoL yes that's true. But his 3 year LTIP expires at the end of this qtr....options next year.

To the moon and beyond😅

Rahuls share options are 55p. He has turned around TLW and each half year report is an improvement long a glide path to exercising his options somewhere north of 55p. Otherwise, why does he bother?

I found this report which might explain why the SP is heading back to 55p+

The FY outlook seems even harder to miss with oil already back to $75 pbl this morning and trading in the final quarter.

GLA

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/7217/2300/9943/Tullow_Oil_Plc-_2024_HY_Report_.pdf

Thats encouraging. Interesting they breakeven at $45 pbl.

LoL who knows? Maybe they do mean £50.

Rahul options are 55p. Not long to wait now.

'Tlw made 196mln after tax @$77.7'

They are guiding $200 -$300m in H2 at $80 pbl plus $50m if oil is $90 pbl.

Seems reasonable to conclude they are track to meet guidance. They are managing a few other initiatives to hit guidance not just oil price.

Of course Kenya would be a brilliant spark and is firmly on the radar imho

Page 11 is interesting

Protecting revenues and retaining upside through hedging. Should get close to $75 pbl in this qtr? Once witching out of the way, $80+ in the run up to full year imho

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4117/2492/8943/Tullow_Investor_Presentation_September_2024.pdf

Looks like Rahul will be buying at 55p when he can exercise his options in 2025 imho. Not long now!

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4117/2492/8943/Tullow_Investor_Presentation_September_2024.pdf

If oil gets back to $80 we could get a green light. Economy is growing 5% but mainly agriculture. Gov deficit is increasing YoY so oil is big leverage and all the global trade dominoes are lined up to go, imho

Global oil prices and inventories

Although short-term prices have sometimes been volatile this year, oil prices have mostly traded within a relatively tight range. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $82 per barrel (b) in August, marking the eighth consecutive month where it averaged between $80/b and $90/b. Despite a drop in the Brent spot price to $73/b on September 6, we expect ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories stemming from OPEC+ production cuts will push the price back into that range relatively quickly.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

'interest rates and OP come down in the run up to the election'

rudimentary economics says we are moving from cost push inflation to demand pull inflation. Good US cpi followed by an interest rate cut should underwrite that. Rahul has read it right imho

'The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent crude oil prices will return to above $80 per barrel this month..'

https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press558.php

It's worth a read. Page 9 seems to underwrite a positive outcome even if the poo drops to $60 imho

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4117/2492/8943/Tullow_Investor_Presentation_September_2024.pdf

Sadly,I dont think we will get 9p again. We need an accountant but broadly fcf is looking like a repeat of H1 imho