RE: Nitty gritty22 Mar 2023 21:01
Thinking about this from a MCap angle.
“The option price for the 5% interest was determined by an independent valuer to be $60-million in accordance with the process set out in the JV and was based on data which was current as at 15 December 2021"
Crudely, if the $60M is extrapolated to 30% then the asset was worth $360M, which is £295M. Using the price we offered NCM ($85M) for the 5%, it's £418M. So the market cap is, strangely enough, the same as an average of those two figures.
My point is that despite the fall and fall, surely now the SP is actually below the true value of the company, bearing in mind the valuation was a massive 15 months ago. It's a frustrating time, especially having to listen to the monotony of certain posters through these tough times - no one is ramping the SP, but the asset ramps itself as we know that GGP has a 30% share of a huge mine.
I said quite a long while ago that this had become an investment in the management rather than in the asset because GGP *have* their discovery. The management have to navigate the company through to production and protect their prize asset from any greedy hands trying to get it on the cheap, and once through these difficult times then maximise for shareholder benefit.
This for me is now at the point where I'm not really looking at it too much day to day - I'm not going to sell and I'm attempting to try to filter out the noise. I suspect there will be a flurry of activity after the NEM / NCM decide what they're doing. It's certainly interesting times.