Member Info for LivintheDream

a little suprised the market was so positive on GLEN today, with copper output 14% down...i guess the market placed more emphasis on the statement below
2022 Q1 report states - comfortably exceeding top end of the $3.2b guidance for EBITA
and when compared to last years equivilent below...
2021 Q1 report states - within the top half of the $2.2 to $3.2b guidance range for EBITA....
this should result in a very large special divi top-up.....still just over 3 months till the half year finanacial report....but we need china to get the cities and factories back open soon....and no more lockdowns.

Despite all the carnage of the last few days, barclay raise target price to £7.30.
I reinvested recent divis and existing cash and bought AAL and RR yesterday.
more divis to come in the next in next few weeks

getting dragged down today with the rest of the sector, but copper up and coal still rising

https://www.ft.com/content/74e67088-0ca5-4f17-a557-6bb7389f522e
The link above has just been printed on the FT. They are putting boot into Glen for not running down its coal mining operations quick enough whilst earning huge profits from them....particulary during the war in ukraine....
Again a personal point of view that should the war and sanctions end swiftly, of course glen will pullback, as it did recently on the announcement of russia withdrawing from Kiev, but for car plants to be solely manufacturing ev's, installation of charging points, copper cables for offshore wind farms...battery metals and copper will be in demand for at least 20 years during this transition and probably longer to sustain the change, whilst coal is phased out (apart from in china, india and korea).
The Glencore strategy is bang on.....next thing is it'll be a carbon tax on the profits, like windfall taxes on oil companies. No-one tried to help oil companies when the oil price was negative, but those that survived, are being persecuted now the prices are high....

Dingo, i don't know about precious metals, but industrial metals have been rising streadily for the last 18 months and taking glencore with it. The war in the ukraine has contributed further to these increases and i would expect prices to remain high whilst sanctions are in place on russia. Personally i invested in Glen due to its position in the EV battery metals, the EV revoultion has only just started, so for me plenty of growth to go, but probably at a slower pace...and i'll just collect the divis along the way.

Billy,i am hoping that by the time sanctions are lifted in Russia (but only when Putin is gone, rebuilds ukraine), the EV revolution will be ramped up to offset the pullback on commodities.....if putin remains in power, the sanctions will continue
The EV revolution is why i invested in glen, anything else is bonus...but who knows what other global problems lie around the corner

Billy, i agree with you 100% Glen needs to up its divi when compared to its peers...but i think the glen divi will increase significantly over the next few years, and with copper, nickel, cobalt and coal, should be sustaiñable for a good few years...l have just over 200 rio shares (and top sliced 30% to buy HZM about 3 years ago) purchased way back for £19.50..and remember very low divis at the begining...now its why didn't i buy more....grrr

Eviking, i saw the FT article $5.2b to nowhere on Glencore where it mentions potential for double digit yields over the next few years., basically stating the expensive merger with Xsatra was a bad idea poorly executed at a time when they were awash with cash from the BRIC cycle, and only now are they back at the IPO price. But due to that M & A disaster they won't go down that route again so all excess cash will be returned to shareholders, with possible double digit divi yields over the next few years....hang in there...should be a special divi in the next six months, plus a lot more that what is offered now.
If Rio/BHP can pay 10%, why can't GLEN?

Troajan,
Yes, since billy sold up, things have become quiet on this board....i need to check when inget back when the vermhalo PFS is due from HZM, some one posted earlier today that this mine requires financing (but PFS is already financed) , perhaps GLEN is loading up ready, so they won't get squeezed by an unsolicited offer after the PFS...i think the Vermahalo nickel mine is suitable for electric car batteries, but araguia isn't....new commercially viable mines in safe areas are rare these days.....so they'll want to get an early seat at the table for that... a down day for Glen...quite rare these days...

Glen has already committed to take 100% of product from the HZM araguia ferro-nickle mine (fully funded to production line #1, with proceeds then funding production line #2). The additional share purchase could be GLEN positioning itself for the PFS of the nearby Vermhalo mine due out this year (i think). This mine has a higher nickle grade more suitable for electric car batteries. It is hoped that the funding of Vermalho will mostly be covered by the proceeds from Araguia mine.
I have accumulated approx 500k of HZM over the last few years with an average of about 3.5p.
I think the info above is correct, but am on hols in france at the moment, so restricted by data, wifi, etc

Bought in here last week and topped up today. There has been no news reports in the last few days on the random shelling that's been continuous during the war....have they stopped...or maybe they are still shelling, but getting story of the horrific scenes in Bucha are taking priority in news headlines....and rightly so. Things at least look safer now....but probably more war crimes to be found over the next few months..

On the latest results RNS, under section heading, Healthy Balance Sheet, if debt is maintained below $10b, "special distributions can be made as appropiate", it's a bit vague, but i would expect a top-up to the current divi, which is currently only about 30 to 50% of other major miners.

the timing of the drop coincides with the (good) news that russia are scaling back operation in the Ukraine....possibly easing the tightness of commodities...unless it is something else.....sanctions will remain on russia for years till they rebuild Ukraine....managed to get some FXPO last week at £1.65 with a 20% divi....thats up 16% today

The closure of the SFO & DOJ investagations, hopefully this year with any fines <$1.5b, should also drive the SP higher....also, BHP have not made a move on any target to increase their stake in the green metals market yet....these points are not mentioned in the ii article, but could easily be a factor in driving the sp higher.

Nice article on glencore on interactive investor this morning, stating a potential 50% upside from current SP due to tight supply on commodities.
Just be patient and collect the divis till we get there!!!
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/glencore-shares-tipped-deliver-total-return-about-50-ii523298?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-WKLY-ENGAGE-ii_weekend_round_up_260322%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=18316111&spUserID=MTIxNjc3ODc0OTY0S0&spJobID=1956324114&spReportId=MTk1NjMyNDExNAS2

Glen mkt cap only 2.5 billion lower than BP, quite astonishing when you consider the price of oil.
I was expecting a sell off at end...but no, they kept buying in....

Eviking, lets hold above £4.80, before £5.80, £6.80.
More than happy to return to gradual growth and collect the divis along the way.
I would prefer not to sell anytime soon as I'm trying build a divi income...but at what point do we press the sell button?
The standard of living for most ordinary russian folk is about to go back 50 years in time...whilst putin and his war cronies will be living in luxury...but for how long?

eviking, thanks that link, clearly barclays believe coal will be the driving force behind the rise.

David, i posted a link to the barclay £6.80 target yesterday at 19.23....for some reason its not shown the the glen page!!

Billy, unless BHP are looking to line up a bid as rumoured a few weeks ago, but even the standard 30% mark up offer bid on £4.70 makes £6.11....these are strange times...be interesting to see the sp of all the drinks, food, tech, car companies, etc exiting russia after 12 months trading with no exposure russian money....can't buy a mcdonalds today, next week can't buy car parts for european/american cars......time to get the lada riva out the garage comrade!!!! Within 6 months they'll be a revolution...