Member Info for LivintheDream

Sold 15% of my holding at £6.12.

Been a LTH since March 2020 & this is my first sell,

Results should be good in August, but if SP pulls back before then, I'm back in...

Causal, I thought the numbers today were disappointing day (but Q1 25 even worse last year), but trading division and higher commodity prices will help balance the lower production numbers. Coal is still an important within the blended energy mix, if no coal were available, gas prices would be sky high and energy demand would outstrip supply on renewables. Hydrogen plants are still being developed, so for the current time, coal is still required. Personally, I think all thermal coal mines in canada, Australia, U.S will be shut down first due to higher running costs/low profits than that of China, Africa (same as Thatcher did in the 80's).

Despite mixed production numbers, the carrot here is GLEN are forecast for 1 million tonnes of copper in 2028 due to the reopening of Alumbrera. MARA is due in 31 and PACHON in 34 are a long way off.

Philipsy, at least thermal coal is volumes are maintained and at these prices, H1 numbers should be good. Also the trading division is expected to exceed previous guidance. GLEN did state at tge Capital Markets Day that full year 2026 copper volumes is forecast to be lower than 2025.

I see we've opened blue, but now dropping.

Overall disappointing numbers again, with full year volumes weighted to H2 again.

Copper up 19% from Q1 2025, but copper Q1 2025 was 30% down on Q1 2024, so overall 11% down on previous, normal Q1 volumes.

Gold, steelmaking coal, zinc all down.

GLEN normally tracks CU prices, but with the straits having been closed, CU and other metal prices fell while energy prices spiked & the GLEN trading division will be making a lot of money on the global dislocation and supply of oil, gas and the increased demand for coal.

I expected GLEN to rise on Friday, as did AAL, RIO, ANTO, etc, but it fell, possibly due to the straits opening and energy prices falling, meaning lower trading/coal profits.

These are just my thoughts and if the straits are still closed on monday, I am hoping for a rise in the SP, if not, it may the SP has topped out & has pulled back.

Hopefully coal prices don't fall back too sharply as the summer months see the highest demand for coal with lower energy output from Hydro plants and aircon/cooling requirements at maximum demand.

Suprising how a seemingly piece of innocuous news drops the SP by 2%....no mention on the Access world website....a non payment would imply financial troubles, maybe liabilities are looming....doesn't seem to merit the drop today, when target prices are being raised to £6+

Shame, DTN was an active poster on here a while back, just assumed he'd sold and moved on

Did anyone manage to get a buy at the 365 to 369 range between 11.45 and 13.30? I tried on 7 or 8 occasions but was only offered 384 for 600 shares.

I bought my first tranche yesterday at 368, and tried to add more today, but had no success, frustrating but I can wait...

Having looked though the strong numbers, I did consider top slicing a few, but the wording in the report, "we have have built the foundations for significant growth for many years to come", changed my mind. I sold a third of my holding last March and loaded up on PFE for divi income, but the should have held. The rise from 65p (the day when the markets tumbled when chancellor Kawsi Karteng was sacked...from memory) has been amazing. I added a few more that day to average down....and I'll never forget it...

No more buybacks

Net debt down to $11.1b

Decent results, but no idea how the market will react based the ANTO great results yesterday, then SP falling 7%

Historically, Chinese driven commodities copper/coal, etc tend to drift lower during the Chinese new year. The whole country shuts down for 2 weeks, then normally comes back strong.

Dividend schedule declared in Y525 financial report on 18th Feb, GLEN normally goes ex-divi in mid May, with payment normally first week of June.

This was a missed opportunity for RIO.

Share price movement this today is Glen + 1.95%, Rio +0.07%, Aal -1.3%

in 2 years ALUMBRERA will be back on-line giving an additional 75k tonnes Cu, and MARA construction should underway.

GLEN need to executes their plans moving forward.....and NOT drop an RNS bombs as per last years Q1 report, copper volumes -30%.

in the short to medium term, £6+ per share is easily achievable here, but so is £4 p/s

Glen should have already reduced the previous $14b debt pile (this will be announced on Feb 18), but the payment could lower it further.

Taken from the Capital Markets day info, GLEN will resume operations at the ALUMBRERA, copper/ gold mine later this year, with first product slated for H1Y28. This is key for the development of the nearby MARRA copper mine, so infrastructure can be shared. This is where I would hope this will be funded (approx $4b costs) from the Congo cash.

Just my opinion.

No indication what the offer price/share ratio was.

Glen too greedy OR Rio too optimistic?

On seeing this, my initial thought was this maybe have been initiated by RIO as a means of reducing debt to a certain threshold to appease RIO, but ORION & GLEN are in talks only, so no deal yet.

My question is would the Orion & Glen deal progress/be finalised without the okay from RIO?

Surely RIO would some say in the matter.

Neel, that is my understanding also.

Sell out and take cash

Or wait for the potential divis, then sell

Or just hold and the shares will be converted via a ratio to Rio shares, thus avoiding stamp duty on Rio shares

RIO know it's now or never with BHP waiting in shadows. Where else are Rio going to get similar copper reserves?

Someone from Rio recently stated, it's about securing copper, and not necessarily about immediate value....not long now to find out.

From the close of trading on 8th Dec, (prior to the takeover talks), GLEN has risen 21% against a 10% rise from ANTO & AAL, with RIO rising 11%.

So GLEN currently has 10% premium already built in the sp. Another 10% premium gets it to £5.50 (20% total), approx share ratio of 1:12.5. Anything less than this would be tough to accept and may draw in BHP.

RIO have already openly declared they have a projected 30% shortfall in copper reserves, know how to build mines, while GLEN have the resources, but are more an operator and are reluctant to go it alone with MARRA ($5B costs) and PACHON ($9B costs)

Several media outlets now reporting current takeover deadline of 5th Feb is to be extended.

Finalising details or problems?